If you are old enough to remember the 1950s Mickey Mouse Club (on black and white TV): “Today is Tuesday, you know what that means…” Guest Star Day! Let’s meet today’s guest, shall we?
No question in our mind what’s really going on. Gavin Newsom – the California governator with presidential aspirations is going “Elvis Costello” on us. (Confused?)
He’s “Watching the Detectives…” (Which links to the YouTube song that will make no sense if you’re under forty-something.)
But here we are, and there Newsom is: Newsom fumes that DOJ is investigating him and his wife, calls it Trump political retribution. But for those with much longer memories (and investigative tools) Gavin Newsom’s income rises significantly in first year as governor, which was a good while back.
Of course, when we go down the rabbit hole of politics, this could be driven by anything including Epstein-related because his name appears in the official DOJ Epstein-files report released February 14, 2026. But that does not establish an Epstein connection. The DOJ specifically warns that names occur in very different contexts—ranging from direct correspondence to nothing more than an unrelated press clipping contained inside the files.
Still, if he’s going to make a run at the Oval, we don’t have a problem with a serious background check anyway. Because if you might someday maybe be cleared to know “everything” (well, except the trillions of dollars in black budgets for the breakaway civilization), sure, go ahead and find out what kind of fellow he is now. Rather than once in office. Because seems once in office it’s hard to get at the root of anything.
In a sentence, today is a “watch the egg timer” with markets in “Hold up, let’s look around” mode in the premarket.
News Compressor
The main thing that changed overnight is that the market has decided—for now—that the Iran war is ending, pulling oil down and risk assets up, but the political agreement is running ahead of the physical and military reality. Hormuz is only partially functioning, Israel and Iran disagree about Lebanon, and the formal document is not due until Friday. Meanwhile, the Fed begins a consequential meeting, a dangerous Midwest storm setup is developing for Wednesday, and anyone running cPanel/LiteSpeed should treat today’s active-exploit warning as a same-day maintenance item.
News Forecast Center
Today BLS released May import and export price indexes. It was fugly.
“Prices for U.S. imports advanced 1.9 percent in May following increases of 2.0 percent in April and 0.9 percent in March. Prices for U.S. imports rose 6.7 percent from May 2025 to May 2026, the largest over-the-year advance since the index increased 7.7 percent in August 2022.”
This will show how oil, tariffs, currency moves, and overseas prices are entering the U.S. inflation pipeline. Meanwhile Census dropped some Housing Start dope: Way down – very poor.
This one is closely watched in the real estate and construction trades.
Wednesday, 1:00 PM CDT: Fed decision, followed by Warsh’s 1:30 PM press conference. The wording around oil, inflation, AI productivity, and possible future tightening will matter more than an expected hold. Our “sleeper of the week” is tomorrow’s Retail Sales report early. After that, EIA releases the next Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Inventory and product-supply figures will help determine whether falling oil is already moving into gasoline and diesel fundamentals.
Source monitor: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/
Wednesday into Thursday: Potential Midwest tornado and damaging-wind outbreak, centered on Illinois and Indiana.
Friday: Planned formal U.S.-Iran signing and claimed full reopening of Hormuz. The unanswered Lebanon language is the most obvious failure point before then.
Emerging health anomaly to monitor: CIDRAP reports that the Central African Ebola outbreak has exceeded 800 cases and has become the third-largest recorded outbreak. It is not presently a broad U.S. public threat, but border closures, travel screening, and geographic spread warrant monitoring. As we constantly remind, we’re always just one jet ride from pandemic.
Four Day Week Reminder: Friday, June 19, is Juneteenth: federal offices, federal courts, post offices and regular USPS delivery, the Federal Reserve, most bank branches, and the NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed; online banking and ATMs will work, but deposits, checks, and transfers may not settle until Monday.
Here in Texas, state agencies operate with a required skeleton crew rather than a universal shutdown, while county offices, city halls, libraries, and trash schedules vary locally. Most supermarkets, restaurants, pharmacies, big-box retailers, gas stations, UPS, and FedEx will be open, usually on normal or slightly reduced hours.
If you can, get some extra rest. Because while we are in Amazon Early Prime Days now, the biggie is next week.
Drill Down: Blink Lab News Details
There’s not just a lot of headlines, but real change vector action planning, so pardon me if I seem overly serious today.
1. War/Geopolitics — Iran Deal Exists, but the Deal Is Not Yet Settled
The United States and Iran have reportedly signed an interim framework electronically, with a formal signing expected Friday in Switzerland. President Trump says Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen fully. The central uncertainty is Lebanon. Iran says ending the Lebanon war and removing Israeli forces are integral to the arrangement, while Israel says it intends to retain military freedom of action and a presence in southern Lebanon.
Impact: The immediate energy and inflation shock has eased, but disagreement over Lebanon could still break the agreement before or after Friday’s signing.
Action angle: Watch the published agreement, Israeli troop movements, Hezbollah activity and actual tanker traffic rather than political declarations. Confidence: high. Source: Associated Press
https://apnews.com/ Alt Source: Times of Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/
2. Energy/Fuel — The War Premium Is Coming Out Fast
Brent crude fell toward $81 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate traded below $79, extending Monday’s decline. Markets are shifting from pricing sustained Hormuz disruption toward reopening and restored Gulf exports. Lower Chinese crude demand is adding pressure to prices.
Impact: Gasoline and diesel prices should begin easing if the diplomatic framework survives, although retail prices normally lag wholesale oil moves.
Action angle: Households and operators should not assume every recent fuel-price increase is permanent, but prewar pricing is not assured until tanker traffic normalizes. Confidence: medium-high. Source: Reuters — “Oil drops to fresh three-month low as markets weigh U.S.-Iran peace deal”, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/oil-rebounds-concerns-about-us-iran-peace-deal-restoration-supply-2026-06-16/ Alt. Source: OilPrice.com https://oilprice.com/
3. Supply Chain/Transport — Hormuz Is Reopening on Paper Faster Than at Sea
Some tanker and LNG traffic is reportedly moving through the Strait of Hormuz following the ceasefire announcement. However, major shipping operators remain cautious while assessing mines, insurance coverage, security guarantees and the physical condition of shipping lanes. Mine-clearing operations could take weeks.
Impact: Energy prices can fall before freight, insurance and delivery schedules return to normal.
Action angle: Importers and transport operators should distinguish between “declared open” and “normal commercial throughput restored.” Confidence: high. Source: FreightWaves
https://www.freightwaves.com/
4. Markets/Credit — Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Begins Today
The Federal Open Market Committee meets June 16–17. Its policy statement is due Wednesday at 2:00 PM Eastern, followed by the chairman’s press conference at 2:30 PM Eastern. Markets largely expect the federal-funds target to remain at 3.50%–3.75%, but expectations have shifted away from near-term rate cuts and toward the possibility of a later increase.
Impact: Borrowers may not receive the second-half rate relief that markets previously expected. Cash and short-duration yields may remain attractive longer.
Action angle: The important signal will be the Fed’s inflation language and projected rate path, not simply Wednesday’s expected hold. Confidence: high. Source: Federal Reserve
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm Alt. Source: Reuters — “Bond investors shift to neutral ahead of Warsh’s Fed debut” https://www.reuters.com/business/bond-investors-shift-neutral-ahead-warshs-fed-debut-2026-06-16/
5. Global Money — Japan Tightens, but the Yen Shrugs
The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark policy rate to 1%, its highest level since 1995, while continuing to reduce government-bond purchases. Despite the increase, the yen remained near 160 to the dollar. Yen carry trade risk.
Impact: Japan’s rate normalization has not yet restored confidence in the currency. A weak yen supports exporters but raises Japan’s cost of imported food, fuel and raw materials.
Action angle: Watch whether Japanese bond yields begin pulling capital away from U.S. assets and whether the yen strengthens after the initial announcement. Confidence: medium. Source: Associated Press — “Japan’s central bank raises its benchmark rate to 1%” https://apnews.com/article/rates-inflation-boj-iran-oil-policy-7646f3c0e0d30ef6c75925b5eecc9014 Alt: “Morning Bid: Japan turns it up to 1”
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-06-16/
6. Markets/Technology — Relief Rally Plus SpaceX Fever
Global stocks rose as lower oil prices reduced inflation fears. Technology sentiment is also being driven by intense enthusiasm surrounding SpaceX and large technology-sector financing activity. The market has rapidly moved from war and inflation fear back toward concentrated speculative enthusiasm.
Impact: Broad index gains may conceal narrow leadership and extreme valuation sensitivity. A failed Iran agreement or hawkish Fed message could reverse both parts of the rally.
Action angle: Treat the SpaceX move as a liquidity and sentiment indicator—not proof that the wider economy has suddenly improved. We think markets will hit a soft patch when it becomes clear the “free money” trades are ending. A lot will depend on how Warsh plays Wednesday. Confidence: medium-high. Source: Reuters — “Stocks rise as SpaceX fever lifts tech; yen flat after BOJ hikes rates” https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1pix-2026-06-16/
7. Ukraine/Russia — Energy Infrastructure Is Becoming the Main Battlefield
Ukraine says it struck a major refinery near Moscow, while another drone attack reportedly caused a fire at an oil facility in Russia’s Krasnodar region. Russia continues attacking Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. President Zelensky is using the G7 summit to argue that Russia is under growing battlefield and economic pressure and that stronger Western support could improve Ukraine’s negotiating position.
A contrary view came from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who said neither side can win outright and both face personnel shortages. His position is not neutral, but it departs from simple victory rhetoric. And more important in our modeling: If energy infra is back on targeting boards, how long before the big Russian-held nuke plant (in former Ukraine land) goes in play?
Impact: Repeated refinery attacks could reduce Russian fuel-processing capacity even if crude-oil production continues.
Action angle: Watch refinery outages, Russian domestic fuel restrictions and whether the G7 produces concrete aid or sanctions rather than statements. Confidence: medium. Source: Reuters — “Zelensky seeks to convince Trump at G7 that Russia now on the defensive”. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/europeans-test-trump-iran-deal-risks-urge-ukraine-rethink-g7-2026-06-16/ Alt Source: Kyiv Independent https://kyivindependent.com/
8. Law/Government — Election Day in Five Jurisdictions
Alabama and Georgia are holding primary runoffs. Oklahoma and Washington, D.C., have primaries, while California’s 14th Congressional District is holding a special primary for the seat previously held by Eric Swalwell.
Impact: These are not national general-election results, but turnout and margins will provide endless talking bullshit points about voter enthusiasm, candidate quality and the continuing value of presidential endorsements. You’ll be sick of it and will move on long before the “news industry” runs out of hype and gusto.
Action angle: Treat the results as directional indicators, particularly turnout comparisons—not as a national mandate. Minimize time lost by noticing outcomes tomorrow and move on. Confidence: high. Source: Associated Press — “June 16, 2026 Primary Election Results”. Try https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/june-16-primary-results/
9. Weather/Personal Preparedness — Wednesday Midwest Outbreak
Batten down the lawn furniture: The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of central Illinois and north-west Indiana under a moderate risk for severe weather Wednesday. The official outlook includes the possibility of intense tornadoes, damaging wind swaths approaching 80 mph and hail as large as 2.5 inches. Portions of Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Ohio and surrounding states also face significant risk.
Impact: Wednesday afternoon through overnight could bring tornadoes, widespread power outages, travel disruption and agricultural damage.
Action angle: Residents and travelers in the risk area should have at least two warning methods and should not depend solely on outdoor sirens. Confidence: high. Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center — “Day 2 Convective Outlook”. Start with https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=DY2&product=SWO&site=NWS
10. Tropical Weather — Quiet Basins, but Not a Free Pass
Zooming out from the NEXRAD: No active tropical cyclones were reported in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific or central Pacific during the early-morning outlook. A tropical disturbance moving along the Gulf Coast could still produce isolated strong gusts and heavy rain, but it is not currently a named storm. Yes we got rain, but not to “septic roulette” levels.
Impact: There is no immediate hurricane-evacuation or Gulf-shutdown signal this morning.
Action angle: Gulf Coast households and operators should continue routine monitoring rather than reacting to social-media storm speculation. Confidence: high. Source: National Hurricane Center https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
11. Health/Bio — Measles Remains a Domestic Outbreak Problem
Guess we “spotted” this early, huh? CDC reports 2,073 confirmed U.S. measles cases during 2026, with 30 identified outbreaks. Approximately 93% of confirmed cases are associated with outbreaks. Transmission is no longer confined to one region. Additional increases are being reported in states including Virginia.
Impact: Summer travel, camps, major gatherings and international sporting events increase exposure opportunities for susceptible people.
Action angle: Families uncertain about vaccination records should verify them before crowded travel or large public events. Macro action: Don’t have kids, or give up travel and embrace noise. Confidence: high. Source: CDC — “Measles Cases and Outbreaks”. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html Alt. Source: CIDRAP
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/
12. AI/Cyber — Active cPanel/LiteSpeed Exploitation
CISA added a LiteSpeed cPanel Plugin privilege-escalation vulnerability to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog after finding evidence of active exploitation. The flaw can allow attackers to obtain root-level privileges. Federal agencies face a June 18 remediation deadline.
Explainer: Cpanel is the desktop for Linux/Apache servers while LiteSpeed is a caching program because saved copies can be served to users faster than what .PHP can generate on the fly with less overhead.
Impact: Shared-hosting environments, WordPress sites and servers using the affected LiteSpeed cPanel plugin face elevated compromise risk.
Action angle: Website operators should verify today that their hosting provider has patched, upgraded, disabled or otherwise mitigated the affected plugin. Confidence: high. Source: CISA — “CISA Adds Two Known Exploited Vulnerabilities to Catalog”. https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/alerts/2026/06/15/cisa-adds-two-known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog. Alt Source: The Hacker News https://thehackernews.com/ (And we have an old 2600 subscription somewhere.., Won’t be going to the HOPE (Hackers On Planet Earth) Conference, though…)
13. Freight/Small Business — Recovery Signals, but the System Is Still Fragile
Cass freight data indicates the possibility of improving shipment volumes during the second half of the year, while truckload linehaul rates rose again in May. At the same time, the freight industry continues to report bankruptcies, layoffs, deteriorating routing-guide performance and deferred fleet maintenance.
Impact: The freight recession may end through tightening capacity and higher prices rather than through a clean surge in consumer demand.
Action angle: Businesses should watch actual delivered freight rates and carrier reliability rather than relying solely on falling diesel prices. Confidence: medium. Source: FreightWaves — “Cass sees freight volume recovery in second half of year”. https://www.freightwaves.com/
Around the Ranch: Tool Box Triage
Thanks to the three-day weekend coming up, my focus plan is on tool kit reorganization. As you may have picked up, I am now the proud owner of two wing-sided technician / field engineer tool kits.
By the look of it ShopTalkSunday this week may amount to a small book. Because the real problem with “wing pallet” tool kits is trying to come up with the “strategy for what goes where.”
Growing up, my “tool kit” exposure was a couple of canvas wrench roll-ups; old military style with a thick webbing strap that was tied up.
It wasn’t until 1970 that the first place I saw a proper toolkit was when our newsroom Selectric needed repair work. The office equipment emporium sent out a recently landed British fellow and his tool kit was impeckerble. Everything in just the right spot – two removable pallets and he was done in no time.
Ever since, right? Like the “magic” that accompanies a first watching of a table saw at work.
So here’s the Big Hint on the way to ShopTalk. I’ve been thinking “which tool goes where” while laying out the old Jensen winged tool case: why does one tool belong on the left panel, another in the center, and another on the right? Turns out, a good tool case is not just storage. It is a physical map of how you diagnose, think, reach, cut, adjust, and repair.
What I’ve come to is this: The case should tell the story of a repair. Measuring gear (scope, AWG, Fluke meter, LCR meter) in the center. Adjust with the precision side (alignment tools and such on left). Cut, strip, grip, crimp and repair with the working side which for me is the right.
Theory says this layout will feel natural even before you consciously memorize it. It follows the job rather than merely storing the inventory.
The bottom tray – under that removable pallet, is where heavy, bulky, hot or consumable items—soldering equipment, solder, heat shrink, cleaning supplies, discharge gear and parts boxes go—because weight belongs low and loose materials should not be hanging overhead. I’m trying to find room for a “four-hole Buick” in there, too.
Oh – and one more for Tool Sluts! Got a great soldering gun for under $20. This kind of tool is normally north of $50 on Amazon. Made by Dorman – check it out here. Built for automotive, 100 watts is about the right size for tube-type gear component replacement, though a 60-watt pencil is good, too.
Wait! Am I going off into tool fog? Off to work on tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report…
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