How are your “war preps?”
This is not something people in the CONUS need to worry about – yet. Except – and this is our first thinking bit of the morning – there is the Calendar.
My consigliere and I have spent uncountable (therefore, non-billable) time calculating the answer to the simple question: “When is the absolute best time to start a war?”
Starting Wars is Problem-Filled
There are the usual “tick lists.” Mets and Weps (meteorology and weapons packages) in the right “delivery zone.” After all, you don’t want to start a war ahead of heavy rains, unless you don’t want pieces moving around. And on weapons – there’s the trade-off with nukes. If they are close to “potential delivery addresses” (Say, Russia, for example…) how does local security look?
An example of this kind of thought might be Incirlik, in Turkey. Where open source claims of NATO nukes have centered for years. We get the proximity to Russia thing, sure. But it has become much more complicated with recent moods of Turkey’s government. War planning is complicated in real-time and over years? Gads..
After weather and weapons there is the logistics problem. The U.S. (and we in our war-gaming) really like air superiority approaches. Aircraft move faster than, oh, deuce-and-a-halfs. And you can get by without mess-tents if you’re only overhead for 3-minutes.
Now We Get to the Calendar
Once the general set-up of conflict is complete – and purely hypothetically here, let’s consider Iran and Israel – then comes the calendar aspects. This is where it gets complicated if you have a six-month planning window:
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day this coming weekend
Tu BiShvat — Feb 1–2, 2026 (evening-to-evening)
Presidents’ Day (US) — Feb 16, 2026
Ramadan — ~Feb 18 to ~Mar 19, 2026 (lunar; ±1 day)
Purim — Mar 2–3, 2026 (evening-to-evening)
Eid al-Fitr — ~Mar 20–21, 2026 (lunar; ±1 day)
Nowruz (Iran) — ~Mar 21, 2026 (multi-day holiday period follows)
Islamic Republic Day (Iran) — Apr 1, 2026
Passover (Pesach) — Apr 1–9, 2026 (evening-to-evening)
Nature Day / Sizdeh Bedar (Iran) — ~Apr 2, 2026
Martyrdom of Imam Ja’far al-Sadiq (Iran) — ~Apr 13–14, 2026 (lunar; ±1 day)
Shavuot — May 21–23, 2026 (evening-to-evening)
Hajj begins (period) — ~May 22, 2026 (lunar; ±1 day)
Memorial Day (US) — May 25, 2026
Day of Arafah — ~May 26, 2026 (lunar; ±1 day)
Eid al-Adha / Eid-e-Qorban (Iran) — ~May 27, 2026 (lunar; ±1 day)
Demise of Imam Khomeini (Iran) — Jun 4, 2026
15 Khordad Uprising (Iran) — Jun 5, 2026
Eid al-Ghadir (Iran) — ~Jun 4–5, 2026 (lunar; ±1 day)
Juneteenth (US) — Jun 19, 2026
Ashura — ~Jun 26, 2026 (lunar; ±1 day)
Then you’re into the U.S. Fourth of July. But pretty quickly – depending on if you play red team or blue – you can see how holiday kick-offs might hurt – or help – and how the usefulness of major U.S. Holidays figures in. Particularly when reading headlines like Trump urges Iranians to keep protesting, saying ‘help is on its way’. HOWEVER this morning there is a change of tune possible as Trump says ‘killing’ in Iran has stopped.
About here it gets complicated. Dr. Copper (copper metal futures pricing) will often firm ahead of outbreaks on prospects of ammunition demand. You can check copper here.
Above call, while a few of our readers are posting notes about the weight-center of US air refueling assets moving toward the Middle East, we recall that any potential war is likely to be between second (or third) tier proxies. The three-way global power balance (U.S. – Russia – China) is about slowly moving the gravity center toward BRICS.
All that needs to happen there is a financial attack. Oh look: Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges to $93.50 record, $100 in sight. Silver cooled a bit, but still over $90 when we looked.
Even though we have a bit of pullback early, that’s a strategic metal and that along with food (America) and energy (America seizes Venezuela), you can see growing stresses on “The Tripod” powers.
Oh, and the short version? In war-gaming there can be a preference toward a Friday start (minutes after the close of markets) on a three-day weekend because D.C. empties out. That could (potentially) slow the American response – depending how big the holiday and what kind of public activities are in play.
For us? These variables are an investment “thumb on the scale.” Being caught, as we are, between hating war but enjoying good cash flow.
Blowing America’s “Sales Pitch”
Pappy always said – when I was doing school in the 1960s – “If you ever want to head a successful country – fight a war with the USA. Look how Germany and Japan prospered after WW II.”
Here lately, though, some of the “America Pitch Book” has been getting tarnished. Sure we can talk about freedom, liberty, and opportunity all day long. Normally, a simple sales pitch.
But the equality pages are becoming illegible as the U.S. stops immigrant visas for 75 countries: See the full list. That’s because, as Elon Musk posted in the past day on X “America is 4% of world population, but illegals can scam money from the government that is higher than 95% of Earth and more than most Americans make! America would be swamped, go bankrupt and then cease to exist at all if illegal immigration enforcement were to be defunded.”
Oh, and the other thing tattering the pitch book? DHS: ICE officers in Minneapolis shoot Venezuelan man in the leg. So there are (pardoning the newsroom writing) a few holes in the pitch, lately.
Other pitch book stations? Trump Funneling Money From Oil Sales To Qatar Account: Rpt
And for a country that was not a (direct) participant, how does US launches Gaza plan’s 2nd phase – The Korea Herald make sense?
God the worn out pitch book lead to a NATO crisis, too? Europe allies begin Greenland military mission as Trump says US needs island. Elaine and I have agreed with “need” the entire contents of Ft. Knox, too. But that, um, doesn’t, oh, you know…
But before we go full chest-thump on risk, here are a number of positive signals from below the noise floor. (Yeah, this is the “It could be worse” section…)
Three Data Points
As headlines (because we don’t have all day here). Philly Fed:
“The diffusion index for current general activity jumped from a revised reading of -8.8 in December to 12.6 in January, its highest reading since September (see Chart 1).* Over 23 percent of the firms reported increases (up from 21 percent last month), exceeding the 11 percent reporting decreases (down from 30 percent); 63 percent of the firms reported no change in current activity (up from 50 percent). Both the indexes for current new orders and current shipments also rose in January. The new orders index rose 9 points to 14.4, and the shipments index increased 6 points to 9.5. Meanwhile, the inventories index fell 17 points to -8.4, its lowest level since July 2024.”
New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing:
“Business activity rose modestly in New York State in January, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. After dipping slightly below zero last month, the headline general business conditions index climbed eleven points to 7.7. New orders increased, and shipments grew at a solid pace. Delivery times were unchanged and inventories edged down, while supply availability worsened slightly. Employment and the average workweek both declined after increasing over the prior two months. The pace of input price increases was little changed and remained elevated, while the pace of selling price increases slowed to its lowest pace in nearly a year. Capital spending plans grew modestly for a third consecutive month. Firms remained fairly optimistic about the outlook, with half expecting conditions to improve over the next six months.”
And the current New Unemployment Filings summary (lags due to compiling time).
Mimosas for breakfast on these? Maybe not.
In fact, smells like rally material, to us.
What’s Really Important
We spend a tremendous amount of time covering the small dance-steps as the world plays away on the end of the edge of complexity collapse into chaos.
But little stories below the “noise floor” of information overload sometimes matter more.
Take Gasoline prices.
If you drive, oh, 20,000 miles a month, then there has been relatively good news in the Triple A Fuel gauge report here recently.
Some quiet competence out of NASA this week: for the first time ever, they executed a medical evacuation from the International Space Station and brought the crew safely home on a SpaceX capsule. The details are private (as they should be), but the system worked: detect, decide, de-orbit, splashdown, medical follow-up. In a world where a lot of institutions look like they’re running on duct tape and optimism, that’s a small but real reassurance that hard problems can still be handled calmly and professionally.
On the U.S. economy front, the Fed’s Beige Book tone has been inching toward “less bad” — reporting activity improving at a slight-to-modest pace in a majority of districts. That’s not a boom, but it’s a welcome change from the kind of “stuck in the mud” language we’ve gotten used to. When sentiment turns even a little, it can matter at the margin for hiring plans, capex, and household confidence.
And for those of us who like to see money pointed at real-world problem solving: the 2026 Hill Prizes were just announced in Texas, aimed at funding high-risk, high-reward research with practical impact potential. It’s philanthropic venture capital for brains — not a guarantee of success, but a reminder that there are still people writing checks for discovery instead of just yelling on the internet.
Around the Ranch: To Holiday, or Not?
My cold is slowly leaving and look at the calendar!
Why, there’s a holiday Monday – should we gather, do the coffee thing, and see if a war pops (I’d bet against it)?
Let me know in the Comments section…
Write when I get rich,
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