Seriously? I mean WTF, over? So we are what – running WW III on weekends only???
This is plain crazy! Ceasefire again on the brink as U.S. strikes Iran, Tehran fires missiles at Bahrain, Kuwait.
I don’t know whether the whole world needs a lithium carbonate enema, or what (that’s the manic depressive drug that works) but this is one of the craziest co-dependencies ever seen in market analytics. (My writing tool just told me that was not the proper “inclusive” way of saying it, but we do plain speaking around here, so ‘f ’em.)
On news of this latest jerk-around, the markets are up. But don’t hold your breath this week because the Housing figures are out tomorrow. About all we can gin up in the way of excitement is a mid morning Dallas Fed report.
Honest to God, there are Mondays when I just want to go back to bed…really.
But then habit comes along and whispers, “Why don’t you check the…”
News Compressor
Dandy idea! Here’s how the shit-roller is cranking it out today:
What changed overnight is de-escalation signals in the US-Iran confrontation after recent strikes and tanker incidents in/near the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides agreeing to halt further attacks and renew talks per US officials and Reuters reporting. This follows tit-for-tat actions that had tightened oil supply and raised market volatility. Markets reacted positively with stocks perking up, oil cooling/steadying (WTI around $69-70/bbl range in recent sessions), and futures showing modest gains in pre-market.
Ukrainian drones struck another Russian oil refinery, with Putin acknowledging fuel shortages amid ongoing pressure on Russian energy infrastructure. In the Middle East, Israel conducted operations against Hezbollah underground sites in southern Lebanon. Venezuela faced ongoing rescue efforts after major earthquakes with a death toll nearing 1,500.
Domestic US focus: No new mass-casualty events (3+ deaths, major evacuations, or state emergencies) reported overnight in mandatory sweeps. Ongoing wildfire activity in the West, with three firefighters killed this weekend on the Colorado-Utah border fires (Knowles/Gore). NWS highlights dangerous/record heat building across central US eastward, critical fire weather in Southwest/Great Basin, and severe thunderstorm risks (large hail, winds) for northern Plains/upper Midwest. People in Europe are whining about excess heat deaths, as well.
Now – since I already let the cat out about tomorrow being Case Shiller Housing, let’s give another crank of the roller… (BTC $60,398 at crank time.)
12–96 Hour News Outlook
- US-Iran talks progress or breakdown (24-72h): Could further stabilize or spike oil/supply chain volatility; outcome hinges on Hormuz reopening details and implementation. High impact on US fuel prices/energy. To bet on the crap carnival you’d have to be touched. Just fill the car today or tomorrow because prices can rise over the Fourth.
- Heat wave expansion and fire weather persistence (ongoing into July 4 period): Risks power strain, wildfires, health impacts in central/western US; watch NWS updates. Confidence: high – along with the temps, deodorant sales. Somehow, we pencil in a really bad year of drunk drivers over the Fourth. Higher heat seems to imply more beer guzzling, does it not?
- Ukraine-Russia eastern front (Kostiantynivka area, 12-96h is the risk window): Russian advances vs. Ukrainian drone/energy strikes; potential fuel shortages for Russia. US aid/strategy implications. Confidence: high that we are cart-wheeling into nukes – seems like only a matter of when – not IF – because Ukraine is playing tip of the sword for the EU which doesn’t have the balls to admit they need Russia or that whole Ponzi blows up – but that’s just old man abhorred by it all talking…
- Supreme Court end-of-term rulings (days): Multiple Trump-related presidential powers cases expected; could shift legal/government operations. The accompanying rage theatrics will be mostly useless.
- Oil market rebalancing post-de-escalation: Potential inventory rebuild and price moderation if flows resume; watch EIA data. US consumer/gasoline impact. more useless here because we are only one Israeli decision away from bio or nuking Iran and elections are coming there so Benj-Net has to put something on the board…
- Cyber signals from Iran/others (24-72h): Reported surge in Iranian cyberattacks on Israel; monitor for US spillover. Which part of surprise do you want to pretend?
- Venezuela quake recovery: Ongoing rescues; limited direct US impact but humanitarian/diplomatic ripples.
Blink Lab News — Rational People’s Response Planner
This is like being the only sober person at the party, ain’t it? What to do, then…
- Monitor oil futures and gasoline prices daily; de-escalation may ease short-term pump pressure but inventories remain tight from prior disruptions. Fill up when it’s free, stay home when it’s not.
- Businesses in heat/fire zones: Prepare for outages, staff safety, supply delays (NWS alerts). Oh, and that brown stuff in the morning news roller reminds us: Brownouts!!!
- Supply chain/transport: Watch Hormuz developments for shipping reroutes/fuel cost shifts. Side bets on if war goes hot over the Fourth?
- Government/law: Track Supreme Court decisions this week for policy shifts. If you get jailed, they were bad.
- Cyber: Federal agencies prioritize CISA zero-trust guidance and vulnerability directives (e.g., Cisco); general users vigilance on phishing amid regional tensions.
- Energy: Russian refinery hits may constrain exports; US production/exports implications. Piss ’em off enough and they will nuke, but don’t take my word for it. I judge Putin as the kind of leader who admires Clint Eastwood and may act decisively.
- Weather/ag: Central US heat risks crops/livestock; Plains/Midwest severe storms for infrastructure. Our greenhouse is playing “wilted salad” at the moment.
- Local ops: Wildfire evacuations and firefighter safety in West; no major new US disasters reported. Had our fill, thanks.
- Markets: Tech/AI stocks mixed amid global shifts; watch Nvidia/China exposure. Looks to us like Mid August of 1929 all over again. Though my consigliere’s view includes a side of Guns of August which might come in as a rhyme later on this year. Stu’s looking at June27th-ish?
- The news compressor got into gibberish this morning which is the only way I can figure this. “Health: Excess heat deaths in Europe signal US preparedness needs for vulnerable populations.” Let’s line this out: The World Health Organization (WHO) is urging governments to treat extreme heat as a severe public health emergency. Always ready to give away someone else’s money.
- Space/science: NASA Swift telescope rescue efforts ongoing. One could hope they will go swiftly but only if they were desperately trying to write the world’s longest running early-morning stand-up routine ever…
New Signals Rising from News Noise
These are things which may impact so I have an action plan for each.
- Iranian cyber incidents against Israel surged notably in 2026 (around 1,600 reported in one month per Israeli officials); potential proxy or spillover risk. Confidence 60.
- Russian admission of fuel shortages tied to Ukrainian strikes; longer-term energy pressure indicator. Confidence 65.
- US domestic firefighter line-of-duty deaths in western wildfires rising and off to a bad start for the fire peak season (3 recent). Confidence 80.
Shopping list: Actually might want to preload on N-100 masks and respirators now before the smoke gets thick, especially if you have breathing issues.
- China domestic AI chip push (Samsung/SK Hynix involvement noted in regional reports) amid Nvidia sales stalls. Confidence 50.
- Venezuela post-quake rescue scale (tens of thousands missing); regional stability signal. Confidence 70.
Quietly, I mumbled something about “Notice where your aid is coming from? Why not become a state and get even more?”
Around the Ranch: Another Book
See if you can guess the title, OK?
The whole book core concept comes down to this:
When you are laying there, gasping for your final breath, the last thing you will ask for would be, “Can I have more paper, please?” Nope.
Time.
So big breath while we can. Now let’s all go pretend – again – that we’re all willing and happy work savages – because many will only have to keep up appearances until Thursday afternoon late…
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