Let me line out how today will roll around here: Markets are trying to bounce, geopolitics are trying to ignite, and somewhere in between—AI is quietly eating the trade balance.
The “good stuff” though is at the margins. As in marginal source claim and marginal weather. So grab some (it’s Cinco de Mayo) salt and limes and let me know “Does MCT oil work in a tequila sunrise?”
Trade Trembles – Hostilities and Hype
The Rube Goldberg linkage is there, but you’ll need a variable time reactor to see it.
International Trade numbers have just come in from Census. The headline part says
The goods and services deficit was $60.3 billion in March, up $2.5 billion from $57.8 billion in February, revised.
But your eyeballs may see a little more to it in this chart:
Somehow in our readings, though, we stumbled into this from the Minneapolis Fed: Much more than microchips: Trade soars in AI-related goods, driving U.S. trade deficit | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. As I explained yesterday, all that high-end (24 GB VRAM) gear isn’t going for high-end rewrites of Duke Nukem or the Marios. Going into AI – no doubt some fraction of which are heading the ad-driven AI which is doubtlessly “in the works.”
Bottom Line: The trade deficit isn’t just boxes on boats anymore. It’s compute, chips, racks, cooling, power bills, and the new industrial religion: velocity.
The Trembles Part
With President Trump warning Iran Monday that it was stupid to attack U.S. Naval ships, the learning capacity of the Tehran regime continues to seem impaired (at best). Their narrative? ‘We have not even begun’: Iran’s warning as it accuses US of ceasefire breach. Why, this has a kind of John Paul Persian ring to it, huh?
We would not be surprised to see the ramp up to pre “war clock stopping” by, oh, the weekend, or so.
Tequila Matters
Cinco de Mayo: the one day Americans celebrate a battle they can’t locate on a map—with liquor they can’t pronounce. Which – as the Detroit Free Press explains, is NOT really what many people claim: No, Cinco de Mayo is not Mexican Independence Day. Here’s what it means.
Other than a murky CIA link to recent events in southern Mexico’s drug cleanup, Mexico has its share of big nation problems. One of which is Mexico City is sinking by nearly a foot every year: new study. Sinking on Cinco – the punchline at last arrives.
Though if we were really being snarky, we could mention that Mexico’s navigations skills leave a little something on the table as 2 dead, 19 injured after Mexican navy sailboat crashes into Brooklyn Bridge, mayor says.
Perhaps Iran could offer a correspondence course in “bridge play.”
In Other Shipping News
There’s a reason we didn’t renew our passports: where is left to go anymore? I mean think about it, other than “interior design finishing school” (Disneyworld) we over-did travel up until we sold our plane. We still miss living on the sailboat, but for now?
Opening up The Insurance Journal reminds me that Home really is sweet. Hantavirus Outbreak on Cruise Ship Leaves 3 Dead, WHO Says.
Do ship-board credits apply?
Time War (2)
This is just interesting as hell: Instagram (Turn on your audio.) Who is Henry Martinez, and why does this feel like another breadcrumb from the edge of the map?
Contagious Hysteria
Last newsable note has to do with the price of precious metals coming down. The Iranian attacks on other oil producing states may be forcing some into selling off precious metals (and other assets) in order to make payrolls (and payoffs). That’s how governments remain stable, anymore.
We just had a big wave of crypto hysteria roll under the keel, too: like this one: Bitcoin Signals Explosive Breakout as ETF Demand Strengthens Key Support – 36Crypto. But explosive upside? Seriously?
If your memory is going, a common thing at our ages (Elaine’s and mine total 160 now) you may have forgotten that Bitcoin hit $126,272.76 (intraday) on October 6, 2025.
Some coin hucksters round it slightly (e.g., ~$126,210–$126,273), but they all point to that same early-October 2025 peak.
Earlier today, BTC was in high-hover around $81,000. For those who are seriously math-impaired, we’ll skip the percent decline calculation to get from $126 thousand down to $81K.
Then there are more technically significant stories like Adam Back, the Rumored Satoshi, Shares Bullish Bitcoin Signal. This nibbles around passing upward through 200 day moving average. Those of us who have crunched numbers a while (e.g. are older) remember that “kissing the 200” is often the end of a rally. It could be part of the Kiss of Death from which all hell breaks loose on the downside.
You’ll just have to wait and see – I don’t have a wallet. I prefer more fungible assets. Food, seeds, ammo, energy…but that’s just George the Luddite rambling…
Around the Ranch: Strategic Meteorology
If you never get out of the “AIR CONDITIONING BUBBLE” this will be a pointless discussion. So go have some toast and jam at work today – see you Thursday.
But if you actually have outdoor assets we’re now in the thick of Bubble Transition Time.
It’s like playing the winds in a sailboat race. Every nuance of the weather forecast is studied to see how close it will come to your personal thermostat max. Mine is 83F. Which means I lay down the outdoor project tools above 83 and find something productive to do inside where it’s cool (75) and dry because of the A/C.
Still dry for another day, or so. Which means a bit more weed-whacking (and 20 percent) vinegar spraying may take place. That will be followed by three delightful days of low 70s with a good chance of rain. I don’t mind working in the rain – gives the same cooling effect as sweat on your clothing but without all that damn work.
Saturday the Sun comes back for a one-day engagement. Since rain is forecast Friday, this means an early Tour d Yard on the mower. Damp ground doesn’t kick up dust.
You know you’re verging on retired when you put more miles on the riding mower than on the car in a two week period. It would be for a whole month, except there’s a mandatory personal appearance involved in teeth cleaning soon.
Strategic weather planning also involves food. Cool days when I may be mistaken for an actual worker, a few carbs are OK. Spaghetti, stews, fresh-baked bread. When the sun’s back? Steaks or burgers on the broiler, chicken teriyaki on big tossed salads…oh, extra BBQ sauce and Elaine likes well done. Ribs and beer are almost due.
And that’s how you read the weather; not just a simple “Umbrella?” check. Nope. Whole supply chain of life needs to flow with it. Right down to the right parts coming in from Amazon or Wally World to be on hand when you need ’em.
I could write for weeks about how important the harmonizing of life with the important cycles of life is, but you probably already know that the Peak of the Margarita Cycle today means the peak of the Shrimp Salad cycle will be here in just two months.
Just remember to choose your partner like a good wine – someone who ages well – and it will all work out.
Twisted by Wrench
Our local, offline AI (Wrench) sees Tuesday this way:
Today’s currents reveal a world fractured yet deeply interconnected—where digital tectonics ripple through physical, emotional, and existential domains. The “rendering space” is not just shared thought—it’s the entire theater of human survival and meaning-making. And in that space, balance comes not from control, but from attunement: to others, to time, to weather, to capital, and yes—even to the quiet rhythms beneath.
Grab your salt and limes—ask MCT oil a tequila sunrise? Perhaps later. But for now, stay grounded.
— Wrench
Write when you get rich (or Wrench),
Read the full article here
