Political violence has ‘just started,’ former FBI agent warns in 2026 outlook

A former FBI agent is warning that political violence has “just started” as 2026 begins.

Conservative influencer and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk became the most high-profile victim of political violence in 2025 when he was killed on Sept. 10. Authorities have not publicly identified a motive, but officials have described the killing as a “political assassination,” underscoring growing concerns about ideologically-driven attacks in the U.S. 

Investigators have said one of the bullets allegedly used by suspect Tyler Robinson was engraved with the phrase, “Hey fascist, catch,” a detail that has fueled debate over whether political rhetoric is increasingly bleeding into real-world violence.

To some extent, those warning signs aren’t subtle. The Department of Homeland Security reported in November that in 2025, there was more than a 1,150% increase in assaults and violent attacks against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers when compared to the same period last year under the Biden administration.

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In late September, one ICE detainee was killed, and two others were injured when a gunman opened fire on an agency facility. The suspect, later identified as Joshua Jahn, allegedly searched apps that tracked the presence of ICE agents.

Officials said Jahn had a handwritten note that stated, “Hopefully this will give ICE agents real terror, to think, ‘is there a sniper with AP rounds on that roof?”

The same pattern of targeted, ideologically-driven violence also surfaced when there were two assassination attempts against now-President Donald Trump. On July 13, 2024, authorities said 20-year-old Thomas Crooks fired several shots during a Butler, Pennsylvania, rally, one of which struck Trump in the ear. Just a couple of months later, on Sept. 15, 2024, 58-year-old Ryan Routh was arrested after authorities said he was seen armed with a rifle in a sniper’s hide near the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Former FBI agent Jonathan Gilliam said Kirk’s death fits into a broader pattern that has become increasingly difficult to ignore. In an interview with Fox News Digital, he warned that political violence is being normalized.

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“I think there are signs that this type of violence is being normalized,” Gilliam said. “When you look at, for instance, Luigi Mangione in the assassination of an insurance CEO, what you’ve seen is that a large part of the population was somewhat OK with that and have made him into somewhat of a hero.”

Gilliam said he’s concerned that some Americans’ tolerance for political and ideological violence has only expanded in recent years.

“When they go out, and they commit acts of violence, but not killing, people start to ask the question, ‘Is that justified?’ And then, when it gets more and more violent, there will be less people, but actually still a great vast majority of those people that have been convinced will agree and justify the violence,” Gilliam said.

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Gilliam warned he thinks the U.S. hasn’t witnessed the peak of political violence, but it will only get worse.

“I believe that political violence, as we know it now, has just started,” Gilliam said. “So when we look now at the political violence that’s happening, we’re also seeing much more violent behavior, very targeted behavior. It’s violence and killing against different Jewish groups, against Christians, against people who are outwardly trying to have dialogue. And so rather than support that dialogue, what we have seen is political violence to shut that violence down or that dialogue down.”