Job, jobs, jobs – and my own semi-retirement. Yep, the business stuff first and my Exit Plans in the Around the Ranch section.
The two biggies today are the Federal jobs numbers which look like so:
Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+57,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care. Leisure and hospitality lost jobs.
And the two “reality checks” the first being what’s in the BLS Database about actual people, not establishment crappola: This month’s is the weakest showing of the year so far.
Then there’s the CES Birth-Death model where they make up…I mean estimate jobs that are under the radar. Only 8-thousand added this month…
This all rolls down to the second big deal: How are filings rolling down at the unemployment office.
We could go into how that’s impacting at the state level, if you’re interested.
Factory orders will be along at 10 AM Eastern. Then everyone will bug-out early after lunch because tomorrow is the designated pre-holiday ahead of the Fourth and I’m taking it.
Just after the jobs report, we saw stock futures turn higher. So today’s play is “Let’s pretend it’s all good out there anmd party hardy…” But is it really?
Cranking Up the News Compressor
I wasn’t just-a-kidding this week when I suggested that, at least for now, World War III seems to be running in week’s-only mode. I suppose some explaining is in order.
What changed overnight is Russian forces launched a major drone and missile attack on Kyiv, killing at least 10-13 people and injuring dozens more, with strikes hitting residential buildings. This followed Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warning of an impending “massive” strike and cutting short a trip abroad. Ukraine reported Russian losses exceeding 1.4 million troops cumulatively.
On the CONUS front: No major new U.S. domestic casualties or large-scale disasters ( meaning 3+ deaths, mass evacuations, or state emergencies) stood out in sweeps in our machine-intelligence sweeps of AP/Reuters/NWS sources.
Indirect U.S.-Iran talks in Qatar/Doha continued with progress reported on the Strait of Hormuz and unfreezing funds, contributing to lower oil prices (down ~1%, Brent near low $70s). Markets showed mixed U.S. futures with some pullback.
This is a pressures and counter-pressures day: Market has underwhelming findata for the week – and as we mentioned in Peoplenomics yesterday when monetary inflation is running over five percent and housing prices are doing up less than one percent, that sure sniffs like deflation in the wings to us. So do those lowering oil prices in the futures market.
One thing that may ripple: Ugly overnight in Japan with the Nikkei -1,741.81. Canary in the coal mine ahead of our three-dayer?
The upside is there, too, however. The digital delusion money Bitcoin was back on top of $60,000 which will keep the long weekend hype fires burning. Plus there’s the usual optimism with the prospect cold beer and warm sunshine to boost both ETOH blood levels and vitamin D, as well.
Forward News Forecasts
12–96 Hour Outlook:
Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities likely continue or escalate in response to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure (e.g., satellite sites, fuel); outcome depends on air defenses and winter prep—high confidence escalation risk. Remember, we figure Vlad Putin is not going to rock-back on his heels and let Ukraine keep punching forever – and that’s why it looks like early WW III is running on weekends.
Along that same like, U.S.-Iran indirect talks may yield further de-escalation signals on Hormuz shipping; progress could stabilize oil flows, but breakdowns risk renewed premiums—medium confidence, timing days to weeks. Tying the world’s future to petroleum and then building out countries which suck up lots of it to run desalination plants so people have water? Just not solid systems level thinking in our view.
Warm-up continues, too. U.S. heat dome/heatwave intensifies across eastern half ahead of July 4; watch for health impacts, power strain—high confidence. But the good news? When your lawn gets brown enough and dry enough it can go into heat dormancy.
Yard work Sidebar: We have Bermuda here, but for best early dormancy try a (tall) fescue or KBG (Kentucky Blue Grass). Rhizomatous types (RTF) spread and self-repair well, similar to Kentucky bluegrass. Tall fescue doesn’t mow down short as pretty-like. But to each their own. Point is? If you mow less, you burn less fuel, so stories like this next one matter less here, but a lot if you need oil to make water…
Oil prices remain pressured lower on reduced Hormuz risk but vulnerable to any reversal; Saudi ramp-up note.
Dialing for New News
Why, it’s like tuning the old Zenith TransOceanic this news-hunting business.
The much-hyped Rural Broadband initiative is making big sucking sounds. We are still mowing around a 20-foot fiber loop out at the power pole in front. And seems like we are not alone. U.S. rural broadband delays and “cyber poverty line” persistence — Billions allocated but permitting, fiber costs (up 40%), and execution lags mean many areas still underserved into 2026-2027. Actionable: We have two Starlink accounts (max and mini) and Brightspeed‘s latest “can’t dial off the local exchange (to, oh, 9-1-1 for example) seems to have been solved. We don’t hold our breath anymore and Starlink with MagicJack numbers is more reliable except in heavy precip.
The world of Science Fiction keeps getting closer: NASA/ISS Cold Atom Lab is producing exotic quantum matter (Bose-Einstein condensates) in space — Ultra-cold fifth-state matter easier to study without gravity. Actionable: Long-term plays in quantum sensors, computing, or precision tech; watch for dual-use breakthroughs. But with our hasty caveat that government won’t let really world-changing tech out for the public if it will dislodge the Powers-that-Be or contractors. Which is why human progress has been so slow and suckish. Thanks for asking.
And for the genuinely paranoid? OK, start with how under-the-radar drone/swarm tech proliferation in energy conflicts — Lessons from refinery hits on infrastructure fragility. Actionable: Personal drone detection/prep, or investing in resilient decentralized energy. You know, all these Ukraine drone strike have everyone thinking about the new style of war.
Disclaimer: Consult local regs/lawyers; this is yard art, not official advice. (When something is disclaimed, it’s usually good shit, so keep reading…)
Easiest home drone prevention that doesn’t break FAA regs near as I can figure. So the easiest prevention (check with a lawyer, I hear the ice cracking all around me as I write this) is to hang long runs of nearly invisible fishing line from tall trees. We have trees around our place where loose invisible fishing line (30 lb test) is strung and then every 2-3 feet there’s a “dangling line down to near ground level (*on calm days).
The theory of operation here is that a drone can be disabled rather splendidly when light fishing leader wraps around the blades. Unrecoverable. With more and more criminals using drones to “scout” homes before burglaries and such, an ounce (literally) of prevention. Just remember shooting at a drone is illegal (and yes, I’m a commercial drone pilot but I also like my privacy).
This is not advice but we do own the 100-foot class trees around our place and the FAA doesn’t have jurisdiction over yard work…yet. And the Pilot in Command is supposed to ensure safe operation of their aircraft…
Around the Ranch: (Semi) Retirement Plans
Peoplenomics readers have known about this for a while., but no time like the present to lay it all out. At 77 – and halfway to 78 now – it’s time for me to dial it back. Way, way back.
This site has had an amazing history and it will continue to exist for a few more years; if for no other reason than to answer the question “Hey! Where’d that Ure feller go?” The answer: Out in the Shop. I miss my tools, my ham radio adventures and exploits, plus this weekend I will be building up the new Hermes Lite 2 and getting that on the air.
Here’s the Overview
Urban has been a beast of my own creation. I am responsible for setting the ghastly publishing time of 7:30 AM – or a few minutes after when there is breaking economic news that comes out at 8:30 AM Eastern on appointed days. So…
- Today, July 2, 2026: I’m announcing the retirement transition publicly on UrbanSurvival.
- Peoplenomics will not be impacted — it will continue with the leading-edge long-wave economics, lifestyle, AI, and personal happiness content it always has. (Plus the real brain warmers.)
In the ultra-long-term, Peoplenomics will become the “George Corpus” site. Many of my digital dalliances (HiddenGuild.dev, HourADayGardening.com, Time-Engineering.com, etc.) will roll into archival sub-categories along with the Content Atlas that goes all the way back to 2001 — when Peoplenomics began as an “after two drinks sitting around the sailboat in San Diego” idea.
My most recent book, Timenamics: Time is the Hidden Currency, was a serious reminder about the reality of mortality. So I’ll be taking Fridays completely off, and Sundays too (no ShopTalk this weekend). Might do a few more ShopTalk Sundays, but get ’em while you can.
The Schedule Ahead
- August 1: No more ShopTalk Sunday. (This one’s hard — I love the projects — but shifting more time to doing rather than writing about them makes sense as energy levels evolve.)
- September 1: No more Monday UrbanSurvival. I haven’t had two back-to-back days off in almost two decades.
- October 1: No more Friday UrbanSurvival. Peoplenomics will then be written after the U.S. market close on Fridays and posted before bedtime. That gives me all day Friday for charts and projections, plus Saturday–Monday for real measurable work around here.
- November 1: No more Tuesday UrbanSurvival (this one depends on world events).
- December 1: UrbanSurvival moves to “major events only” (Depression signals, major market moves, true public service alerts, etc.).
By then G2 should be back from his medical officer role on the big server farms. He’s got a book to write and adventures of his own.
With all the tooling around here, you never know what mischief the old man will get into. Setting up a Radio Museum with some of the vintage gear could be fun. Or maybe we’ll build that house… Then there’s the time machine project. And actually no, not joking at all.
The next book will be The Time Farmer’s Secrets — a collection of lessons about how we all “plant our own futures” with our deeds every day. Then there’s a trio of books that may follow. One of them is about how AI will keep changing (and actually improving) the human lot, but by the third book in that series, I will break out how AI can reduce the human potential to bullshit one another (and ourselves) and that an “honest for a change planet” might actually have a path to a Thousand Years of Peace ahead of it… As I recently explained on Peoplenomics, one way we recognize intelligence in other people is by comparing our “training stack” with theirs…
Peoplenomics is still just $40 a year and if you haven’t subscribed you might find some real value in it. Info here. You can get “the news anywhere” – but it’s the way of thinking about it – and using it to your own ends that matters.
Well enough complaining about the To-Do List. (Our LOSTD – list of shit to do) I have to go do something about it now.
One “Frontier Note” for the Road
Until I pull it all back under the Peoplenomics umbrella, there’s a lot to read over on my AI frontier website where I write under the nom de plume of “the ~Anti-Dave” after that 2001 story.
The last is titled Where Is the Missing Domain? – Hidden Guild.
ShopTalk is a maybe this week. More Monday here and Saturday morning on Peoplenomics.
Need a time sink? (Ure looks askance in Reader Ray’s direction.) Here’s a dandy ham radio auction.
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