Ah! Here for your “news replacement therapy” are you?
For those asleep at the switch, let’s start with why holiday markets matter here in what looks like terminal bubble behavior.
Markets have already moved from an aggregate high of 65,718.45 down to a recent low of 64,209.31 — roughly a 1,500-point haircut. That is large enough to plausibly count as an Elliott Wave 1 decline, viewed in the context of narrowing breadth, increasingly emotional AI-chasing flows, and the disconnect between real economy friction and market levitation.
Which brings us to now.
There is now a reasonable chance that what we are seeing is the Elliott Wave 2 reflex rally discussed in Wednesday’s Peoplenomics ChartPack before the open. Not confirmed yet. But enough structure is there to keep it on the radar.
And this is where holidays matter.
Holiday trading periods routinely distort markets because participation drops while leverage and narrative concentration rise. Fewer institutional desks fully staffed. What matters now is how many sheep will hang around through Friday. Easier index manipulation. Easier futures and tape painting. Easier “everything’s gonna be fine” optics.
Thin markets are easier to steer.
This is particularly true late in long-cycle speculative phases because large players become highly motivated to preserve: collateral values, retirement optics, confidence psychology, and political narratives. Midterms are a-coming.
You do not need a grand conspiracy when structural incentives already align. “Stupid” is also a plug-n-play option. The modern holiday effect is less about retail optimism and more about liquidity geometry.
A market with reduced participation can float far beyond what normal price discovery would allow.
The question is whether the current bounce (going, going…) has enough internal strength to invalidate the idea that the recent 1,500-point decline was the opening fracture in a larger corrective structure. Honestly?
For now, the possibility of an Elliott 2 rally remains alive. The market could still drift higher into the weekend close. But, the “media machine” takes holiday weekends too – so there’s risk to traverse before Tuesday.
If “no news is good news” and the bubble remains intact into the Friday close? Then a blip up Tuesday to let the commercial hedgers out gracefully before reality settles back in is possible. But terminal bubbles are famous for looking healthiest just before the structural supports begin to fail.
The 1929 Replay Picture
Still alive and kicking. And the waveform blink is concerning.
We will – after we get past the bull’s bed-wetting phase between now and tomorrow’s three day weekend close – watch with the detached view of an epidemiologist logging contagious mental viruses.
The “What next” odds will be found in the PN ChartPack Saturday. Some of us still have to work weekends.
Turdsday Data
With Reality entering the economics-as-scatology zone, let’s begin “Blinking Life” with three snow plow poles. Philly Fed first:
“The current general business activity diffusion index declined to -0.4 in May from 26.7 in April. 22.5% of the respondents reported an increase in general business activity, and 22.9% reported a decrease from April to May.”
Housing Permits and Starts follows:
And when we counted noses this week at the Unemployment Offices?
What could be more fun than these? Why that’d be the…
Morning Blink
This is where we skip the celebs and talking heads, the political BS and the high-noise hysteria.
The only question that matters is: what changed overnight that could touch your wallet, your travel, your family, or your weekend risk? We take the top 10 national stories and boil them down to three actionable hedges.
Blink 1: Bonds are now driving the bus.
The bond market is not whispering anymore. Long rates are rising hard enough that even the political class is dancing around it. Reuters notes the 30-year Treasury hit 5.20%, its highest since 2007, while traders have repriced from expecting cuts to pricing meaningful odds of a Fed hike. Translation: mortgages, car loans, credit cards, and business borrowing don’t care what the campaign slogans say. Money is getting tighter. Action: postpone optional borrowing, refinance nothing in haste, and treat debt like it has teeth again.
Blink 2: AI is still the bubble’s oxygen tank, but Nvidia didn’t levitate the room.
Nvidia beat with a strong outlook and announced an $80 billion buyback, but futures were still muted and the stock barely moved premarket. That matters. When the market’s favorite narcotic stops producing a bigger high from the same dose, pay attention. Action: enjoy the rally if it comes, but don’t confuse AI enthusiasm with broad economic health.
Blink 3: Oil, Iran, and Hormuz remain the weekend fuse.
Crude eased on talk hopes, but Reuters still has Brent around $104 and says lack of meaningful progress on reopening Hormuz is feeding inflation worries. That is your holiday-weekend risk packet: thin markets, media slowdown, oil headlines, and bond pressure. Action: top off vehicles, avoid market heroics before the long weekend, and keep a little cash/liquidity buffer because “no news” can become “oh hell” before Tuesday. Especially because Trump and Benji don’t seem to be besties, here lately.
Regional Blink Map — Before Calling the Kids This Weekend
Northeast: Heavy rain and localized flooding risk from Pennsylvania into New England. Travel delays possible around Boston and NYC corridors. Tell the kids not to trust GPS around flooded underpasses. Don’t trust anyone, in fact.
Southeast: Early heat and humidity building across Florida and Gulf states. Storm cells fast-growing by afternoon. Hydrate before yard work — not after.
Midwest: Air quality alerts and temperature swings continue in parts of the Upper Midwest. Corn belt looking decent, but nerves about moisture timing remain under the surface. Drought map in a sec.
Texas/South Plains: Grid holding so far, but heat from hell season will load in after a cool holiday. Keep vehicles fueled and check A/C before the first real triple-digit push arrives. Mowing right after showers keeps the dust and pollen down, minimizes clean-up.
Mountain West: Fire season creep continues. Dry fuels plus wind equals “one spark becomes county news.” Ranchers already watching grass conditions carefully. Skip the media bullshit at InciWeb the Incident Information System. You’ll miss the ads and stand-up hotties but own the signal.
Pacific Northwest: Cooler pattern helping for now, but allergy and mold complaints rising after moisture swings. Rivers still running cold and dangerous despite warmer air. WA state gets 1-6 hantavirus exposures per year from all that wheat farming, in E-WA, did you know?
California: Insurance, power, and water remain the hidden story even when headlines wander elsewhere. Coastal economy fine on surface; interior stress continues building. Hormuz matters to California.
Great Lakes: Manufacturing softness still visible beneath official optimism. People working, but fewer feeling prosperous. Watch trucking and warehouse chatter for the real economy tell. Insulate now; winter will be along soon enough.
Appalachia: Quietly becoming a relocation corridor for people escaping cost and density elsewhere. Infrastructure lagging population movement in some counties. Smart people getting off the Titanic.
National Meta-Blink: Holiday weekends suppress attention spans. That means real developments often hide in the barbecue smoke and celebrity noise. Keep one eye on oil, bonds, and shipping lanes while everyone else watches ballgames. The Benji and Don dance could matter in a flash.
About a Drought
Map it:
Year to date we’re at 10.42″ inches. May last year had 26.58″ and in 2024? 38.57 inches. Under a third of a high rainfall year.
Found out – looking at flower pictures – that I have planted a short row of cucumbers in the lean-to grow room. Judging by the flower count on them now, we could have dozens. Time to buy pickle brine? Being hopelessly lazy efficient, and all…
More proof that people will buy anything. Like plant labeling systems. Why label things? If you can’t see the difference between a yellow squash and a cuke when they grow up, you should put down the hoe and go back to school.
If the plant grows, you’ll figure out what it is. And if it fails badly? Labeling won’t have helped. I know – “George don’t diss the label industry!” (But, it is a scam…)
Around the Ranch: What Musk Missed
Reader Ray picked up an X-post about Elon Musk which was disappointing. Especially the part where he’s alleged to have said:
“The universe is the answer. What is the question? Or what are the questions?”
“The more we can expand the scope and scale of consciousness, the better we can understand what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe”
“The more we can expand consciousness, become a multi-planet species, ultimately a multi-stellar species, we have a chance of figuring out what the hell’s going on”
“This is why I think we should have more humans and more digital, both biological and digital consciousness”
My disappointment? Once you become self-aware, the first task (which almost no one completes) is “figuring out the game”. All you need to do is a personal time and awareness map and it’s right there, staring you in the face.
- Born – memory wiped
- Raised – local knowledge maps installed
- Educated – figuring out the maps are mostly wrong
- Growing Up – Moving into adventurer and explorer mode
- [Dying: Playback of game film]
As you go along, you get to try on whatever thought-models seem to fit your “moment.” I stumbled into “spiritual amusement park ride” as a paradigm about 1982, or so. Hasn’t failed me yet. Still riding, still watching what’s going on out on the planet’s surface. It’s wildly amusing and will make a dandy game film to review.
Then there’s the smorgasbord model, too. Earth as a spiritual buffet diner.
How come this is so tough for people?
Poker Story
If you have read the latest poker story from three-piece, you are missing a classic. Click over here to read it.
I’m pushing him to write a book – with lots of sidebars explaining at the competent player level how some of the best moves are made.
This is why I write here. We all share a “window on the world.” We see the real doers and we watch their moves. Musk seems to be stuck at the money table at the smorgasbord. Three-piece is thinking about which next course would please him.
I enjoy watching it all – camera running. Might be able to pick up some moves for my own game film. Now, when I look in the mirror I ask “Are you playing the money table, or learning the game?”
Write when you get rich,
Read the full article here
