About Those Housing Numbers

OK…read ’em and sleep:

Year-Over-Year

• The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.5% annual gain in June, up from a 1.2% rise in the previous month.
• The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 2.9%, up from a 2.4% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 2.1%, up from a 1.6% rise in the previous month.
• Chicago, New York and Cleveland reported the highest year-over-year gains with year-over-year price increases of 6.9%, 4.8% and 4.1%, respectively.
• Seattle posted the lowest return in June, falling -2.0% year over year.

Month-over-Month

• The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National and 20-City Composite Indices recorded monthly gains of 0.4%, while the 10-City Composite Index posted a 0.5% gain.
• After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National, 10-City, and 20-City Composite Indices posted 0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.2% gains, respectively.

Historical

• Measured from its June 2022 peak, the 10-City Composite is up 13.0%.
• The 20-City Composite is up by 9.9%.
• The National Index is up 9.3% from its June 2022 peak.

“Homeowners and renters alike breathed a sigh of relief in June as inflation cooled to 3.5%, while the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index posted a 1.5% annual gain, up from a 1.2% annual gain in May,” said Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “While home prices continue to decline in real terms, lower inflation and firmer nominal home price growth in June helped slow that pace of erosion.

“The housing market remains under pressure, with 30-year mortgage rates holding near 6.5% in June,” Kaufman concluded. “As financing costs are kept high for prospective buyers, current homeowners remain reluctant to give up the low mortgage rates secured in prior years.”

Afters the data came in, the markets started looking up, up…

Repeat after me: Rally into when?

~Ure

Peoplenomics is where George does the deeper work.

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