There’s a reason why the experienced traders around here bailed out last week (early) or at the week’s lows (Friday). State variance extremes were close-by. Have a look at the extreme right side of this chart. You will see the early futures today were painting a possible bounce.
Here’s what the tape is whispering today…
There are a number of candidates for “what’s behind the curtain.” But, we try to keep them all in mind. Because real drivers arrive from the constellation Loser. Winners are born under the sign Mindful.
#1. There is no stability in news. Yes, we lost an E-3 electronics plane on the ground in the Middle East. Photos show heavily damaged US radar jet at Saudi base. The Houthis became active this weekend, too. But, no nukes going off, and now Trump’s even saying he doesn’t have a problem with Cuba getting a load of Russian oil product. Relief rally is on the table.
#2. Housing tomorrow. If this is a “buy the rumor” Monday, then it’s possible that a “sell the news” could be setting up for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller housing report tomorrow. Although we are always a bit cautious of it. The numbers are solid, but a couple of months old. To be counted has to close. Getting to closing from earnest money can be a month. Then it can take a while to be tabulated. So, what’s that, a couple of months? Depending too much on the rear view when driving through an inflation minefield can be dangerous.
#3. There is the Holiday Effect. If markets are going to bounce, in advance of a holiday is a fine time. Stock trading closes for “Good Friday” so an ultra-lite day of work for us, too.
Which reminds me: The stock market may look like one of the more godless inventions of modern man — all greed, leverage, panic, and price discovery at gunpoint — but its Good Friday closure is really a legacy artifact from the New York Stock Exchange’s old cultural setting, when American financial life still carried a heavier Christian civic imprint.
The NYSE and Nasdaq still list Good Friday as a market holiday today, even though it is not a federal holiday, which is why the whole thing can look contradictory on the surface. But it’s less theology than tradition: markets are secular money-machines run inside a civilization that inherited religious customs, and every now and then the wiring still shows through.
In this case, it’s a short in the wiring. (Gimme a Monday rim shot…)
Bitcoin was $67.866 when we looked, Just over half of its all-time high. Gold and silver were up a tad. And Europe? UK is up over 1 percent while France and Germany less than half that.
Dust Bowl Delayed?
My late friend Robin Landry used to school me, “What flips a recession into a Depression is a drought.”
So, going over the short-term lookaheads from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the road to Dust Bowl 2.0 seems to be planning a pee stop.
What we think will happen in this spring will be a month – maybe two – of moisture coming back toward normal and (except for the wicked southwest) will see some moderating temps ahead. Something reader Stephen2 was whining about in our Comments section over the weekend. Relief coming is the odds change we’re sensing.
Newsroom Sweepings
One of the paid AI stacks here mentioned over coffee that today is Celine Dion’s birthday.
I mentioned back that “No self-directed grownup cares – we have other things to worry about. Though it somehow feels perfectly on-brand for modern civilization. One part reverence, one part Vegas, one part power ballad at full throttle.” She’s 58 and wasn’t even born until I had been out of high school for a year working.
Possibly more important?
So much for “fellowship” at Easter, huh? Israeli police prevent Catholic leaders from celebrating Palm Sunday Mass at Jerusalem church. With friends like…oh, never mind.
New Alzheimer’s research is telling us more about how things malfunction in the brain: Scientists find a hidden brain trigger of Alzheimer’s disease.
Against the background of Bluesky built a new AI tool that wants to free you from social algorithms, we offer an easier solution. It’s called the “off switch.”
>Slow news flows are evident as one report focuses on: How Long Is A Day on Saturn? Scientists Are Closing In On An Answer. Cue CTA from the best period of music history “ (“Does anybody really care what time it is?“)
Around the Ranch: Sniff Planting
A couple of months back, my BWP (big winter project) was building an improved deck off the 180-wine room: ShopTalk Sunday: More Decking Around.
This weekend, we were trying to figure out what was missing. Elaine snapped her fingers “We need plants – plants that have a vibe and smell good!”
Our long-suffering gardenia that had provided great olfactory realism finally bit the dust this winter, so we went shopping. OK, clicking.
This week, five cold-tolerant gardenias will land. Shortly thereafter, two lilac bushes will arrive.
And we may get into home grape-stomping, one of these years. Deacon Dan next door recently gave us a grape plant. Since anything worth doing is worth totally overdoing, I picked up four more Southern Grapes. They will go in around the patio pavers. I’ve always wanted to weld up a real grape trellis out of rebar, so here comes the excuse…
Speaking of Welding: One of Elaine’s boys will be starting welding school today. Work-related course for a month.
And I dunno why, but I shorted out mentioning the Big Spring Sale at Amazon. Where (not like I need another welder, but…) check this out. $40 bucks for a little 200 amp home buzz-box. Hell yeah.
Tossed Yard, is it? No, but the main project today will be applying a good spritz of 20 percent vinegar to all parts of the yard where we don’t want things growing. Clip and save this:
Best simple formula (for 1 gallon):
Mix 1 gallon of white vinegar (5% acidity; use 20-30% horticultural vinegar for tougher weeds), 1 cup table salt or Epsom salt (optional but boosts results), and 1-2 tablespoons dish soap (Dawn works great).
Stir or shake well until the salt dissolves, then pour into a garden sprayer.
The vinegar’s acetic acid burns and dries out plant leaves, the salt dehydrates roots, and the soap helps the mix stick to weeds.
Spray on a sunny, dry day, thoroughly wetting the foliage—results often show in hours to a day for young annual weeds. It’s non-selective, so avoid desirable plants, and note it may not kill deep-rooted perennials as reliably as glyphosate. Reapply as needed.
Another book: This one – like many of my books, will be serialized on Peoplenomics in coming weeks. This week, we’ll ponder odds of a Depression in China – very much in our economic vein. Looking ahead, my Four Track Human model is paying off big conceptual dividends. Including a new look at the Tesla and Edison “spirit phone research.” (Yes, we will try to build one…DSP is involved.)
On that. have a great Monday, enjoy a short rally this week but keep the goggles handy for later in the month. Nostradamus in G.A. Stewart’s work, may be close on the summer timing. SPF 10,000 anyone?
Write when you get rich,
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