The Futuring game is always a fine one to play. Especially on a Long Weekend Friday.
We like to “ballpark” what life could be like a week from now, by assembling the already-known Future events and then guessing the more probable event pathing to most likely outcomes. If you were to do this as a simple Excel chart, decision-matrix lookup tables for critical events, you could create three likely expectation bounds when confidence levels, over time, are plotted.
The central line is the “most likely future” while the upper outcome would be “most favorable” as the lower becomes “worst possible” future.
The median outlook today is? Ceasefire holds, Houthi’s continue, Ukraine’s a mess, Biden goes, Trump is anointed, and Tuesday morning we will have coffee in a basically unchanged world. Or, WW III, aliens land, megaquakes, and overnight pandemics pop; only in the worst case.
As a news editor’s “thinking tool” this modeling helps to keep article selection focused on being most responsive to the ever-drifting future, respecting the information needs of the “news consumer.” Everyone walks around with a Future Model in their head, in one form, or another.
Because this is a three-day weekend for many people (Monday is the Federal day off for Martin Luther King Day, Inauguration, etc.), we can further refine our Future view by grouping high-probability Future events as “framers” (which will happen, more or less, no matter what) and “impacters” (the universe of bad outcomes, mainly from left field, Acts of God, etc.) that will impact “current dynamics” (which are) already seeded into the [quantum foam] in motion materializing.
Finally, we could add a cluster of “distractors” which might – in feed-forward fashion – modify our existing subordinate expectations based on probability outlooks in the three [core] dimensions of the model.
No speed or “lines” needed – just a good night’s sleep and some strong coffee to build it.
Examples of Major Framers:
- Today, Options Expiration will occur. Because a 3-day weekend is at hand, some late selling is possible as money comes off the table until after the Inauguration.
- Weather continues cold with maps showing another cooling mass coming south. Cooling over the weekend?
- Monday will be a Federal holiday, so mostly no banking or mail. Deets in a sec.
- Schools will also be closed, so very light highway traffic. A longer shower or more coffee Monday.
- Business deliveries will be “iffy” – depending on what you want to get done: UPS pickup and delivery services will be closed for MLK Day, and store locations may also be closed. FedEx, however, will have modified pickup and delivery services with open locations, the company’s website notes.
- Toss in some “local weather” shoppers (we are expecting snow showers here in East Texas overnight into Tuesday) and a few of the “event pillars” framers of the weekend are now in place.
Examples of Impacters
It’s here that we can line up coming possible events:
- Israel could still slam Iran – before Trump is president.
- Houthi’s aren’t signators to the ceasefire, so that could “impact.”
- China could blitzkrieg Taiwan before Trump.
- Rumored terrorist cells could attack Trump, his key nominees, or Congress.
- The outlier of an attack on the Inauguration has to be keeping security forces up and worried.
- Ukraine could “flash” any time ahead of Trump. Incidents like NATO fighter jets scrambled as Putin kamikaze drones hit port by Romanian border pump risk and give ammo to the war promoters, though Romania was clearly not the target.
- Biden could send a last-minute tranche of resource to Ukraine.
- Fires could explode again in the American west if winds pull off a surprise.
- Unspecified terrorist event(s) could be done around Inauguration time.
- (Fill in your own Sum of All Fears) operators in your own list…)
Examples of Current Dynamics:
Examples of Distractors:
- As Cal-Fire’s work continues, political hyperbole about speed of recovery continues to present unrealistic expectation setting. Econometer: Will California insurance reforms be enough to stop insurers from leaving? We are reminded this requires a working legislative session, and these take time, which SoCal home losers don’t have: They will be in go-no-go modes within months. Governmental reforms, especially when large piles of money are on the table, can take a year to several.
- If you believe California politicians are grandstanding ideologues, you aren’t alone: ‘This Is So Disgusting’: Joe Rogan Unloads On Gavin Newsom For ‘Creepy’ Behavior In Front Of Wildfire Wreckage.
- The good news, but in, we think, bordering on the danger of excessive optimism, is that we do have a real estate developer going into the Oval Monday. Donald Trump vows to help ‘troubled’ Hollywood with Mel Gibson, Jon Voight and Sylvester Stallone.
- Not on the table for action (right now) are still longer-term intractable financial issues like Social Security, so stories like Study: 54% of Retirees View 2025 Social Security COLA as Insufficient are lumped here (until they move to the action/dynamics) into “distracters.”
This is not a comprehensive view of “Future think” around here, but it’s a shorthand view which you’re welcome to view as we sort “wheat from the chaff” around here. We could add an another “future shape” called…
People Underperforming
Oh boy… To summarize, we can now set expectations about immediate Future.
Today: Markets will be choppy – Options. We continue to see the rally “walking the line” on significant moving averages with results tomorrow on our Peoplenomics side for subscribers.
Saturday and Sunday: Lingering concerns about left-field events. Odds less than 30 percent, except Middle East and Ukraine where 40 percent predominates.
Monday: Slow news days with the Inauguration highlighting, left-field events watch odds less than 40 percent.
Benchmarking Future?
The whole purpose (of being a news consumer) is to update your own “model of expected future” that you use to plan and modify your own Life decisions going forward. This is not very hard to do. You listen to headlines once or twice a day – note if any expectations have moved, or – more importantly – if any new “left fielders” have shown up.
And take a glance at the Princeton Global Consciousness Projetct (GCP) and the REGS/EGGS (link on our home page) to see how global coherence is playing out. However, as ChatGPT explains *(if asked, just so), the predictive nature of this tool applied to Future-guidance is limited:
“The Princeton GCP provides fascinating data that suggest a potential link between global consciousness and random physical systems. However, its ability to predict globally impactful events is highly constrained by its methodological limitations and the non-specific nature of the signals. At best, the GCP might serve as an experimental tool to explore collective consciousness phenomena, but it does not yet function as a reliable warning system for major global events.”
Final note is to be aware of any feelings of unusual “tiredness or lethargy” on a holiday weekend. Because, as ChatGPT acknowledges, these feelings may be part of our human “survival alert” systems:
“Feeling tired before an earthquake is a phenomenon reported by some individuals, but it is not a scientifically validated or common predictor of seismic activity. If you experience unusual fatigue in earthquake-prone areas, it is worth staying informed about local seismic activity, but it’s more reliable to rely on established monitoring systems and preparedness plans rather than subjective physical sensations.”
So, while earthquakes are often named for “Events” on the calendar (“Good Friday” quake of 1964 in Alaska, for example) and MLK day is a somewhat novel calendar addition, the AI view is that “Earthquakes do not show any tendency to occur around named holidays or events. Any perceived pattern is likely coincidental or a result of psychological bias.”
Still…well, you know…
At the Ranch: The Calm Before the Spring
Even with skiffs of snow in the outlook, we’ve gotten into the “fixing to get ready” for Spring mode.
We’re working out the planting for hydroponic starts in the house, so (when we get to that part of the schedule) things like tomatoes will be ready to harden-off and go into the ground by mid-March.
We will be planting another round of Romaine for outside deployment. Tomatoes have been upscaled to some heat tolerant versions to get more summer yield. Peppers and melons will follow as things move along.
A few days of dry weather will give me a chance to burn-out the garden. Then greenhouse repairs and next thing you know, all the markers of Spring will show up: IRS filing day (already, folders are being populated) and annual lawnmower servicing. The fun stuff, of Life.
Between now and my birthday (middle of next month) main farm chore will be bush hogging brush so the place looks more like a park than a Jurassic diorama. Tomorrow, the plant food for the huge Magnolia blossoms will arrive, along with Gardenia food…
One objective over the three-dayer, will be solving the “Mystery of the Roof Cat.” Not on the roof this morning…
But several nights now, the video alarms on one of the high-res network cameras has gone off and when I look, it has been one of the feral cats we feed. Up doing “roofing inspections” at 3 AM – aided by the full moon earlier this week. We have no idea how the animal is getting up there; additional cams will be deployed to suspect locations (the BBQ deck and the rainwater barrel). But both of those jump points involve “claw-proof” landing zones, leaving no traction to pull itself up if misjudged.
Quite the puzzle, but that’s what you get living on the edge of civilization *(such as that‘s working for you, huh?)…
Write when you get rich – Peoplenomics tomorrow, ShopTalk Sunday and maybe Monday, too.
George@Ure.net
Read the full article here
