Trump’s Day 1 – Markets Begin Sorting

In some aspects, it was an All-Day Circus. By historical measures, it was unprecedented. Over the course of the week, markets will begin the “rebalancing project” of America’s Future, a good place to begin our discussion.  Because most of the mainstream is obsessing over Trump issues sweeping pardon of supporters charged in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack | AP News.  (And Trump did report the outgoing party puppet destroyed many documents in the case… Oh, and you did see Mike Benz on X: “the real reason Biden pardoned Mark Milley… spoiler was for J6 involvement…)

The Great Rebalancing

That’s because the “Business Model of Politics” has just been upset. It will take time – several months likely – to reset its “balance point.”

Two examples of this make this clear.

1. Energy Prices: The first thing we did today was hit the FinViz site to look at the “energy complex” and voila!  It’s down.

The reason for energy to fall on Trump’s Day One is the signing of an executive order reversing much of Joe Biden’s plan to reduce and end drilling access to federal lease lands.  A kind of “FU” to the incoming party.  Except, Trump was ready.

Not that lawsuits won’t follow, but with a Trump majority – which could be reinforce during this term in the Oval – odds are rising that access to Energy won’t be impeding America’s growth.

But this bring me to the second point.

2. De-emphasis of DEI and ESG programs will send huge ripples.

That’s because an entire wing of the Synthetic Growth Model is being cutoff and cauterized.  Revisionist history writers will have a harder time getting published. Because as employment prospect dim in the fields of sexual and racial divisionism, the academics will have a harder time justifying growth in their departments.

I mean think about the impact in Medicine: Gender-change surgery training may now fade as a growth spot in medical schools.  And what about the gender-related prosthetica industry?  Yes, there is one, if you happen to look.

It will ripple out into every publicly traded company, too.  The Human Resources portfolios will shrink.  The cost-components of “social justice” will collapse. And that will serve to reduce prices.

But – noble as these Trump policies are (which we believe in as part of the broader move back to “Making things” instead of jawboning and claiming to be “Special” – there is a downside. As HR lightens up, as the “woke joke” is shit-canned, we have to remain true to Constitutional frameworks that sanctify Equality.

Thus, the great news is that Competence is back. Merit is back. Excellence has returned to vogue.

It’s going to piss a lot of people off – people who control money, media that spews out hate, but America has a real chance now to stop bullshitting ourselves and get back to being Number One.

We may well look at the first six months of Trump – in the rearview this fall – look back and call it The Rebalancing Period.

Gender #31 special interests will, though, have to shelve their marketing lies to school children. And to soak up some of those who will be turned out from the DEI-ESG industries?  There’s still plenty of work to be done.  With deportation of felonious illegals, though, there may be some job openings.

Being of a particular color or a gender, an age, a religion, or “DEI” hire never was what really mattered.

There was a joke among First Responders that (until this week) asked:

“If you’re having a heart attack, what’s more important: the race, gender, age, or religion opf the medic?  OR their total mastery of emergency medicine deliver right now?”

We are on the verge of making the right choice again.

The List

Over on the White House website, you can scroll through the EO’s and begin rebalancing your thinking. As these will to some extent, or another, impact all of us, here’s the early this of items on the WH site:

1. GUARANTEEING THE STATES PROTECTION AGAINST INVASION
2. Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness
3. Designating Cartels And Other Organizations As Foreign Terrorist Organizations And Specially Designated Global Terrorists
4. Reforming The Federal Hiring Process And Restoring Merit To Government Service
5. Ending Radical And Wasteful Government DEI Programs And Preferencing
6. Defending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism And Restoring Biological Truth To The Federal Government
7. Establishing And Implementing The President’s “Department Of Government Efficiency”
8. America First Policy Directive To The Secretary Of State
9. Protecting The United States From Foreign Terrorists And Other National Security And Public Safety Threats
10. Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential
11. Protecting The American People Against Invasion
12. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Global Tax Deal (Global Tax Deal)
13. Organization of the National Security Council and Subcommittees
14. Reevaluating And Realigning United States Foreign Aid
15. Temporary Withdrawal of All Areas on the Outer Continental Shelf from Offshore Wind Leasing and Review of the Federal Government’s Leasing and Permitting Practices for Wind Projects
16. Declaring a National Energy Emergency
17. Restoring Accountability for Career Senior Executives
18. Promoting Beautiful Federal Civic Architecture
19. Restoring The Death Penalty And Protecting Public Safety
20. Putting People Over Fish: Stopping Radical Environmentalism to Provide Water to Southern California
21. Securing Our Borders
22. Protecting The Meaning And Value Of American Citizenship
23. Realigning the United States Refugee Admissions Program
24. Unleashing American Energy
25. Clarifying The Military’s Role In Protecting The Territorial Integrity Of The United States
26. America First Trade Policy
27. Memorandum to Resolve the Backlog of Security Clearances for Executive Office of the President Personnel
28. Declaring A National Emergency At The Southern Border Of The United States
29. Holding Former Government Officials Accountable For Election Interference And Improper Disclosure Of Sensitive Governmental Information
30. Restoring Accountability To Policy-Influencing Positions Within the Federal Workforce
31. Withdrawing The United States From The World Health Organization
32. Application Of Protecting Americans From Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act To TikTok
33. Granting Pardons And Commutation Of Sentences For Certain Offenses Relating To The Events At Or Near The United States Capitol On January 6, 2021
34. Putting America First In International Environmental Agreements
35. Delivering Emergency Price Relief for American Families and Defeating the Cost-of-Living Crisis
36. Hiring Freeze
37. Regulatory Freeze Pending Review
38. Return to In-Person Work
39. Ending The Weaponization Of The Federal Government
40. Restoring Freedom Of Speech And Ending Federal Censorship
41. Initial Rescissions Of Harmful Executive Orders And Actions

And while we’re at it:

42. The Inaugural Address
43. Flying The Flag Of The United States At Full-Staff On Inauguration Day
44. President Trump Designates Chairmen and Acting Chairmen
45. President Trump Announces Acting Cabinet and Cabinet-Level Positions
46. President Trump Announces Sub-Cabinet Appointments
47. President Trump Announces Cabinet and Cabinet Level Appointments
48. President Trump’s America First Priorities

Got to say: Trump went big on this.  We expect the blow-back to begin any old time.  Law-faring is an industry, too, you know.  And Law Schools have to keep filled, as well…

While markets were generally up in the early going, we always like to look back when a presidential cycle turns and compare markets from the past.  Here, for example, is how the Aggregate Index did in the opening days of Joe Biden in 2021:

Which we can them compare with Trump(1) in early 2017:

So in Trump (1) the market was up a bit from Inauguration to Feb 1.  Down some in Biden’s case.  No, this is not meaningful but ask me in a couple of weeks as today’s data comes in.

Other Items

Still a whole world out there: News marches on.

Trump’s first day was causing echoes around the world. Here are a few:

BTC at click time was still comfortably over $104,000 though, so “tumble” might be a bit strong.

Yeah, whatever….

Not as Noteworthy

Still can’t trust ’em: Semafor Davos Daily: Trump looms over Davos | Semafor

The U.S. is leading the world in something: Infographic: Countries With the Most Pension Wealth in 2025.

And (STUDY) Glyphosate linked to preterm births, low birth weights | Sharyl Attkisson is worth a read.  I mean, like if you eat, or something…

At the Ranch: Chilling

Damn cold but very little snow.  I mean like eighth of an inch maybe…. (1/16th, then?):

Off to walk the trash out, munch a leftover hunk of bacon-wrapped filet, and then fine-tune tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report.  Tomorrow’s will be on Ebbinghaus-Ure and next weeks I call out Microsoft on environmental policies…

Let’s see how the market does today…should be interesting.

Write when it warms up…

George@Ure.net