After expressing my outlook – that only a fool would hold a long market position over the three day Easter stock market break beginning from today’s close – I waded into the deep end of the pool again. With one of those high-leveraged option plays that can work out nicely.
Trump & the Dancing Titanic
…and their band plays on….
Donald Trump’s speech to the nation didn’t buoy markets, but then we told you to expect another fleecing of the MAGA followers. That’s on tap today.
Early futures were down almost 500 650 on the Dow, 80-ish 102 on the S&P, while the techs were looking at a nearly over two percent slide. Ure’s wild-eyed approach is to pick the most liquid tools out there. One of which may be the 3X market ETFs, but no point stopping there – I went off a higher board with options on the 3X ETFs. Anyone can play, but not the kind of thing anyone but Three-Piece and maybe The Economic Fractalist (and me, of course) should even mess around with.
It’s like shaking nitro glycerin just to see what will happen. TEF’s remarks overnight (here and here) are in addition to his comments on his site over this way.
Let’s round up a few facts (which is how much gets through the mainstream): Middle East crisis live: oil prices climb after Trump defends Iran war in address to the nation.
His monumentalness is also shaking up the conservatives (and rational readers of the law) with Supreme Court casts doubt on Trump’s birthright citizenship order. And to underscore how pissed they are: Democrats sue Trump administration over mail-in-voting order.
The left hasn’t been the same since being unable to get “One Nation, Under God…” axed. Speaking of which, be sure and put this Why Files “basement” (long-form podcast) on your holiday weekend watch list. Basement #006: Scott Wolter | The Kensington Runestone, Templar Treasure, and the Green Jar.
Now Back to Finance
With the markets about to sink – so sayeth the futures – we need to see if there will be any salvation in the latest Challenger Jobs Cuts report.
Apr 02 Challenger Report: March Cuts Rise 25% From February, AI Leads Reasons
U.S.-based employers announced 60,620 job cuts in March, up 25% from 48,307 cuts announced in February. It is down 78% from the 275,240 cuts announced during the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“Removing the wave of federal layoffs announced in February and March of last year, job cut announcements in 2026 are closely following the pattern of 2025. Last year it was Government, Retail, and Technology. This year, it’s Technology, Transportation, and Healthcare,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Toss in climbing oil and as reader Stephen2 pointed out, the two attacks by Iran on Saudi oil pipeline infrastructure is a very big deal.
Which Gets Us to Famine Talk
Now let’s put the pieces on the table, do some sliding around, and see where this all leads. Famine. Why The War in Iran Could Trigger the Worst Global Food Crisis Since the 1970s.
Of course, now it’s not just us tilting at outliers in the model runs. Now the highly respected Polish Seer in an overnight posting (in Polish) on YouTube gave a chilling view forward:
“It may already be spoken of in some parts of the world by the end of summer this year, but at first only fears will appear. No one will believe such a famine can come. No one will want to believe it, and yet before long it will appear.
When Europe, or part of Europe, surrenders without war, money will be worth so little that for a period of time people will trade goods for goods. Can you imagine a world war carried out through blackmail?
Somewhere in the world, something will be launched that poisons crops and food in that region. And those who do it—the state or states that do it—will begin to blackmail the world that the same thing could happen elsewhere. This will be a new weapon that everyone will fear. That will already be the time of the Antichrist.
What I am saying is insane. But two states, perhaps three states in the world, acting in collusion, possess a biological weapon that the whole world will fear. The world will not know it directly, but it will see its effects. And those states will blackmail the world.”
No one is perfect in “prediction space” but we keep an eye on Krzysztof Jackowski’s work because his hit rate is far above noise.
Oh, and if there’s a (Project Blue Beam- like) incident involving Artemis on this moon mission don’t be surprised – all another grand deception to keep the humans in line on the prison planet.
There…where were we?
Cali Quakes
Long-term stochastics, the prophecy and seer crowd, and even the odd geo-phys types are worried about a Big Central USA quake this spring as a potential. So when we get things popping off on the left coast, we pay attention. For the simple reason the American plate is moving west and smacking into the “immoveable objects” out that way. Which is where things like the Rocky Mountains and the coastal ranges (Cascades, Olympics) and the other stacks (Yellowstone, Sierras, Wasatch) happen.
M 4.6 – 1 km ESE of Boulder Creek, CA
We can speculate all day (“Might this be the one that kicks loose SoCal and brings on Joe Brandt’s dream from 1937?).
Also on planet shake and bake: Strong undersea earthquake hits off Indonesia, killing one – UPI.com.
Grinding on the News Stone
Ure’s “new nose knows news” due to constant sharpening! Here are some “sharp notes” to be aware of.
Kind of interesting about Anthropic, we figure. First losing the faith of DoD and then source code… Anthropic took down thousands of GitHub repos trying to yank its leaked source code — a move the company says was an accident | TechCrunch. Any bets on what this will do to forward prospects?
We continue to get great service from Starlink and our “mini” will go online as a backup to our security cams this weekend. All the while Tesla Fans Could Be the Next Big Wave of SpaceX Investors | The Motley Fool.
Person going places? King Charles III to make a state visit to the US despite calls to cancel due to the Iran war.
Two health notes to track:
Around the Ranch: FOWM
Focus On What Matters
Here’s my problem going into the weekend. I have two lists. One is about things that really matter.
- Move seedlings from hydroponics into grow room.
- Plant the Gardenias, Lilacs, and additional grape vines when they show up this week.
- Assemble new BBQ – move old one off deck.
- Spend an offline hour driving into town to pick up ‘scripts.
- Clean main bench in shop (again).
- Put away tools from last couple of projects (again).
- Find great deal on an additional greenhouse because of risk of bioterrorism down the road…
Competing is the fun list:
- Put up one of the VG-4 verticals by the 180-room and run coax to my inside chair.
- Assemble the Hermes 2 Lite including the I/O board ham radio transceiver.
- Build new cedar greenhouse on BBQ deck and move that down to the ground level patio.
- Move walking pad into office.
Not sure which of these will happen this weekend.
BUT one thing I can tell you is that with markets closed tomorrow, we will have a special ShopTalk Friday and a list of dream power tools to keep as a shopping list. I will be in only long enough to put in the Jobs data tomorrow morning. This is a great weekend to take time off, rest up, and see which way the dive off the high board Monday lines up.
Never bet against gravity.
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