Triskaidekaphobia anyone? Yes, in my view, the world is slowly edging towards World War III – it will likely pop before Turkey Day and after the BRICS meeting in Russia.
Early futures were showing the market continuing the rally, but again, color us skeptical. We have still not (in our Aggregate Index work) returned to the high set going into Labor Day weekend. Which in turn was (at best) a secondary high off of the July nominal peak.
The BRICS Bookend
We assume that you don’t read the Vladimir Putin (English language) webpage (here) but he’s like a proud daddy with the BRICS meeting coming up in Kazan, Russia next month. Just this morning, China’s Xi Jinping to visit Russia next month for the BRICS summit. It’s clear, at least amongst our colleagues, that the odds of Putin (or Xi) doing anything totally disruptive to the Whole World Order will wait until after the mit-wobbling pictures and sham Global Cooperation speeches are cold.
The other bookend – the Thanksgiving period – if not out of deference to football overload, but rather as a practical matter of weather in the Taiwan Strait.
Between now and then, we would expect China to be conducting serious testing and drilling of interoperable capacities with the Russians. In fact, our Houston bureau sighting passing by in the headlines today, that many people will simply blow off as insignificant. Russian Aircraft Intercepted by US Near Alaska – Newsweek.
Beyond this, however, there are two other (to us huge) indicators that we are in the pre-war “drills to prep” phase of events.
First, there was an attack on the Taiwan stock market. We would emphasize here that you should pay attention to the reputed source of the attack – which was specifically not Chinese: Pro-Russian hackers crash Taiwan Stock Exchange website, local media reports (cnbc.com) and Russian Hackers Hit Taiwan Bourse, Bank in Surprise Attack (yahoo.com).
Chinese is from the American public’s perspective, operating well below the radar of international incidents, Still, stories like the one 207 Chinese Ships Spotted In West Philippine Sea In New Record-High are incredibly important in the “Drills Before Wars” world of high-end military planning. In fact, salted in with the Chinese “fishing vessels” are far more dangerous floaters, our sources tell us:
“What normally happens is that the Chinese Maritime Militia (vessels that more or less look like fishing vessels, but are under the express control of, and crewed by, designated militia units, and are used for presence and screening operations) are backed up by Chinese Coast Guard vessels. The normal CCG cutter is an early model JIANG DAO class corvette. The late model JIANG DAOs have more sophisticated anti-sub gear, whereas the earlier models lack that. A few years back they took all the earlier model JIANG DAOs, painted them white with blue CG stripes, and called them CCG cutters. They still carry anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedoes and air defense and surface to surface guns – not exactly normal Coast Guard loadouts. The Chinese Coast Guard is a subordinate element of the People’s Armed Police, which in turn is directly subordinate to the Central Military Commission, essentially as a separate military force. The PAP have defined war time roles in a joint force fight, as does the CCG. In operational deployment, the Maritime Militia vessels and backed up by CCG cutters, which in turn are backed up (over the horizon, normally) by PLAN gray hull warships. But the CCG carry the same sort of anti-ship weapons as the PLAN does. Point is, they’ve flushed a considerable force into Philippine territorial waters. Add this to the global Russian Naval and LRA exercise going on right now, and it paints an interesting picture of deployed Chinese and Russian sea control assets.”
Especially when we (for better or worse) link the aggressive “minor islands” behavior with territorial probes off Alaska and the attack on the Taiwan stock market – quickly laid off as Russian – to keep the unaware from getting the Big Picture. Check.
One other thing a delay until after BRICS gets China: time to help as Vietnam typhoon death toll climbs to 233 as more bodies found in areas hit by landslides and floods.
It Seems to Be Working, Too
One of these days, we expect a Big Name will speak publicly about the quickly rising odds of a Chinese Air and Sea Embargo of Taiwan. Or a direct invasion. One way China can play events would be the “encircling armada” approach, but the other which would be more of a blind-side of Western interests, would be the use of IRBMs (intermediate range ballistic missiles) conventionally armed on American carriers and bases (Guam comes to mind) to deny the U.S. the long-range air assets needed to effectively challenge a PLAN/PLA action against Taiwan. Say, that’d be pucker-factor time at Elmendorf/Anchorage, too, wouldn’t it?
The U.S, markets, however, are rising due in part to soaring inflation expectations. Given the rising odds of a Harris presidency, this means the runaway socialist spenders in the American congress will have no veto in the wings when their grandiose wet dreams get to the Oval. The National Debt (not including interest) is already well north of $35.3 trillion dollars. So, it was hardly surprising to us that Gold popped Thursday along with silver.
The headlines don’t make sense, from the fundamentalist monetary perspective. We are seeing stories like Gold marks fresh record high as inflation data ‘set the stage’ for Fed rate cut – MarketWatch, but we also know that with a lone Greenspan exception in 1995, a rate cut move by the Fed has normally kicked off market declines in the 30-40 percent range appearing within 6-months.
True as all this is, one of the most reliable statements on Wall Street is “This time is different.” Well, no. If anything, they are likely to be worse. All of the factors and pressures (Ukraine, Iran-Israel, civil strife in America, Taiwan…the whole lot of it) is still pending. G.A. Stewart’s latest match-up with the Nostradamus work reminds us we are in the season of “Collapse and Revolution” so it’s best to remain agile.
As bad as all of this is, we expect Ma Nature will also offer some door prizes to the WW III party. We know, for example, that the Sun has kicked up its energy output with last month’s big increase in sunspots. And there are somne who believe that Einsteins e=mc2 equation provides for the “additional condensation of energy into matter” in the Earth’s core, which would (in turn) logically cause the Earth’s crust to act up. As in Earthquake Measuring 5.1 Hits Malibu; SoCal Breaks Single-Year Quake Record. We hear rumblings that outfits like FEMA and Northcom and all the state agencies may be keeping a watchful on the subduction zone off the west coast of Washington state where the plate-lock is building into position for a once-every-few-hundred-years 9+ magnitude quake. Which, all by itself could be a $6 trillion disaster and that’s not even counting damage should a killer tsunami ’round the corner’ and run up Haro Strait toward Vancouver B.C….
Puget Sound has a ton of military and critical financial assets to worry about: Bangor sub pens, the Bremerton shipyards, Boeing, Microsoft, Adobe, Amazon, Everett Navy base. Not to mention Joint Base Lewis-McCord and the NAS Whidbey ops. Ah, to be able to use that old offshore underwater hydrophone system (from the Cold War days) to monitor deep ocean sounds…above everyone’s paygrade, though.
Look – it’s a lot to take in and at the margins, there is still a muddle-through path but most frightful is the waking up a month from now and seeing everything and all of it has lit up overnight. Gosh, that’s even without mentioning Russia attacking NATO in return for the Brits greenlighting use of their arms for attacks deep inside Russia. What could possibly go wrong, right?
Our first major point going into the weekend is we are not the only ones asking How close are we to WWIII after Putin’s latest threat to the West? And no, nuclear war is not going to be “good for markets.” NATO ground-only war? Maybe…until the bioweps.
Take the time to watch this video Putin on the potential use of NATO Long-range weapons against Russia – and specifically about threats to be posed to the United States and ask yourself where this goes if Biden throws all-in with the neocon handlers.
Import-Export Pries
Just out from Labor:
U.S. import prices declined 0.3 percent in August following increases of 0.1 percent in July and June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Lower fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the August
decrease. Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.7 percent in August, after advancing 0.5 percent the previous month.
Imports
The price index for U.S. imports fell 0.3 percent in August, after ticking up 0.1 percent from April to July. The August decline was the largest monthly drop since the index decreased 0.7 percent in December 2023.
In spite of the August decline, U.S. import prices increased 0.8 percent over the past year. U.S. import prices last fell on a 12-month basis in February 2024.
Exports
U.S. export prices declined 0.7 percent in August following a 0.5-percent increase the previous month. Lower prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports each contributed to the decrease in U.S. export
prices in August. U.S. export prices fell 0.7 percent for the year ended in August, the first over-the-year drop since April 2024.
To summarize, while import prices were down 0.3 the money we got for export fell more than twice that. Very bad. Squeeze play. But futures slept right through it.
Earlier, the financial markets were looking to take on a few points at the open, but whether it can hold through the close will be the deal today. Next week is the Fed decision and sometimes we get the feeling Powell’s folks may be in a position where they can’t please everyone.
Still, for now, the market is not at a new (*Aggregate) high, and we have not bettered even Labor Day. So, we wait.
Yesterday again showed the value of a balanced investment plan. Gold was up more than $50 bucks, which more than offset our option losses Thursday. But, I’m a patient sort. Silver over $30, again, we see. Bitcoin was waffling around the $59 thousand line.
Pass the News Duchy
Bong!
Did Kamala cheat in the Debate? ABC Whistleblower Exposes Debate Scandal: Kamala Fed Questions, Trump Targeted for Fact-Checking . We think it’s odd who introduced Harris and hubby. And if that’s not enough bias how about ABC News Moderator, Kamala Harris are Sorority Sisters. Oh, nothing to see here…
Democrats don’t need to defeat Republicans in November. they’re doing just fine on their own. MAGA Is Turning Against Laura Loomer – Newsweek
But, even as the last shovelfuls are being put on the coverup burials of 2020: Robert Davi on X: “Biden campaign, Blinken orchestrated intel letter to discredit Hunter Biden laptop story, ex-CIA official says | Fox News https://t.co/V0t22S9G0o” / X
Our in-depth Focus topic on Peoplenomics next week is about “Dynamic Truth.” And my, isn’t this going to be timely? AUSTRALIA THREATENS HEAVY FINES FOR SOCIAL MEDIA GIANTS OVER SO-CALLED MISINFORMATION… (rumble.com) Everyone wants to be the Editor-in-Chief.
Advertising spying takes to the Interstate: Driven by Ads: Ford’s Patent Paves the Way for Eavesdropping on the Road (reclaimthenet.org)
Bigger picture reads: Number Five is Alive – by Brian Fisher – Soil and Roots (substack.com)
And maybe from up in space ‘It Sure Looks Like a Perfect World’: Billionaire Isaacman Marvels at Planet Earth as He Leaves SpaceX’s Crew Dragon in First Commercial Spacewalk During Polaris Dawn Mission. But down here, there’s some work to be done. Ahem…
At the Ranch: Railings and Stairs Await
Our ShopTalk Sunday report will be focusing on how we got to the place where that new mini deck will be stuck until next week. We had over an inch of rain in the gauge when I looked Wednesday, which scuttled plans to mount up and ride the red grass clipper.
The supplies for the finishing touches of the deck (stairs and a railing would be nice) should land today and tomorrow. Which leaves it to the weekend to complete.
What has happened here is that the burst of getting things done when the cooler weather of fall arrived has been blown out of the water. Because the heat is back on for the next week, High 90s are due. Nice for running the broiler, but not so much for things like (actual) construction because I have an onboard thermostat that cuts off work above 80F. We shall see.
May fill in with a ham radio project, or something like that. There is a long queue of quality projects. But, like that cold beer at 5 PM is an incentive to do a good job for the last few minutes of work (to get the “I earned the cold one”) point nailed down, so too, mowing, railing, seeding, dump runs – all that kind of stuff need to happen.
Railings will get a coat of paint today – run to Lowes for stair risers (too lazy to cut my own) and some more five-quarter treated decking. While there, more 4-by4s and 2-by’s. Remember what I said going into this, shagging tools and getting supplies will usually take more time than the project itself. Which turns out to be true…again.
Triska Note: A reminder to my master Mason son: Low profile today, buddy.
Write when you get rich,
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