I think we can see an outline here which will make my consigliere smile.
First We Gotta Do Trade Dope
Because trade matters “bigly and hugely” in here.
Advance International Trade in Goods
The international trade deficit was $87.6 billion in April, down $74.6 billion from $162.3 billion in March. Exports of goods for April were $188.5 billion, $6.3 billion more than March exports. Imports of goods for April were $276.1 billion, $68.4 billion less than March imports.
After the numbers. Dow dropped more than a hundred. S&P fell 25 in the pre-open.
Now, back to the smiling consigliere:
You’ll recall he and I are both long-term (50-year+) students of long wave economics and how all that works out in the moneysphere of Earth.
The news has been coming for several days now. Ever since India overtakes Japan to become world’s fourth largest economy. But, here we are this morning and the point is amplified in India’s FY25 economic growth hits four-year low of 6.5%, Q4 GDP beats estimates.
Why It Matters: Anyone with a grounding in long waves has had the discussion of how “power rolls West” in the long wave cycles. What allowed the Western paradigm to prevail in WW II was that the British and the U.S. were huge manufacturing giants with room to expand even more. Simple point is we outproduced Germany and it’s Axis pals.
We fast-forward to the Now and notice how a dangerous proportion of manufacturing has “flown West.” (The old pilot term “flown west” is a euphemism meaning a pilot has passed away, often evoking the image of flying into the sunset.)
We see this as additional evidence that the financializations are failing and the return of humans to making goods and babies is playing well in western regions. Not doing so well in either Europe or the U.S.
One possible Historical Power Mapping would have the U.S. reprising German’s role, and Europe/UK will become the next Italy in this version of the replay. Russia could be very much like Japan’s role in WW II (with Ukraine being an analog to the Japanese invasions west in WW II). This leaves the Asian powerhouses like China and India to fulfill the roles of Canada and the USA in WW II.
Which makes the real problems: 1) keeping India and Pakistan “spun up” so China won’t get too palsy and thus push closer into that version of replay. While 2) though a bit off the US-Grand Coulee Dam story, Three Gorges is a dandy pointer toward how Xi (et al) will reprise the U.S. manufacturing power of WW II.
And China’s 100 percent all-in with it, having built ghost ports, ghost cities, because they seem to have a better grip on the future than we do. They are building (have built) back up plans.
Oh, and there’s the little “appeasement replay” going on as U.S.-China talks ‘stalled’ and need Trump and Xi to weigh in, Bessent says.
If one really wants to “trip out” consider the “writings” of Hitler in the pre-War period and then contrast that “compelled to write” with Art of the Deal and now moving on to just making up personalize pseudo-money.
Yep, the world is crazy. But predictably so.
How can you possibly tell your friends this? Simply blame me:
“Ure outlines a perspective grounded in long-wave economics, observing that global manufacturing and economic power are shifting westward, as evidenced by India surpassing Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy despite a four-year low growth rate of 6.5%. He draws historical parallels to World War II, where Western manufacturing dominance led to victory, and suggests that current trends—such as the decline of financialization, reduced manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe, and the rise of Asian powerhouses like India and China—mirror a cyclical replay of power dynamics. Ure speculates that the U.S. might play a role akin to Germany’s in this cycle, with Europe as Italy, Russia as Japan, and China and India as the new manufacturing giants, while highlighting concerns like U.S.-China stalled talks and China’s strategic infrastructure investments as indicators of a predictable, yet complex, global shift.”
OK, the A.I. generated summary leaves out the books part, but just between us, there’s an aspect of oration, publication, and coronation between personality types that a future DSM-6 might call out as “warning signs” but of what? May not be a word for it – yet.
Personal Income Fairy Tales
The following is as accurate as the descriptions of Hansel and Gretel.
Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $189.4 billion (0.8 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $48.6 billion in April. Personal saving was $1.12 trillion in April and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.9 percent.
Tell me you don’t really think the Fed will have the stones to lower in June, do you?
Sorting Out Life
Cash talks and BS Walks file: Jeffery Mead on X: “New York has fewer people, higher taxes, and still runs deficits. Florida has more people, lower taxes, and runs surpluses. And guess what? People are fleeing New York for Florida in droves. It’s obvious — we need a country that looks more like Florida, not New York.
New report out says non-human traffic on the web (bots, etc) now represents more traffic than humans. So think about that as you read: Germany weighs 10% tax on online platforms like Google
But, can anyone in Congress read? Donald Trump Sends $9.4B ‘Rescission’s Package’ to Congress: Cut Foreign Aid, End NPR Welfare Now.
And yes, Donald Trump’s got a developer mindset, but here’s a tip as to how he’s playing “The Greenland Card”: If US, Europe Don’t Move on Greenland’s Minerals, the Island Could Partner With China: Minister.
Around the Ranch: What’s Too Big?
Hat tip to our Houston Bureau which called our attention to Musk’s SpaceX town in Texas proposes a new map and zoning.
OK, the liner notes on this go something like: Texas gets Musk to move out of California. Musk sets up a “company town” and that’s your “how and why” of the corporation is adjusting its plans because of changes. Fair enough.
But I have a REAL problem with company towns and to my (limited) thinking, the problem is analogous to the separation of Church and State. This has become, in my lifetime, ever more clear as making Money has become a huge cult-like following. It’s the dominant religion, now.
And what happens? “The Cult” (not to be confused with the music group) takes over the shell of government. (Don’t look now, but this is a riff on how many religions over history have worked). The money religion today is full of new Believers, why ever since the Book of Free Lunch (with secret numbers) was dug up in 2009 by that Satoshi prophet.
A topic I’m wrestling with right now (for the next chapters in Downsizing which is being serialized on the Peoplenomics.com website) is this matter of “too bigness” for corporations. Ugly theft under color of law pops up in “eminent domain” and lots of other concepts. Like losing the use of your property for your own purposes if they conflict with the religion’s Starbase plans.
There’s something very concerning here, especially because Big Money owns a great fraction now of all of Reality. The Money Religion keeps buying influence over Big Government, just as older religions got to their tax exempt status. You’ll just have to look past the connection between Savior and rate changes.
There’s an odor here friend, and that the je ne sais quo *(…an indescribable or elusive quality, essence, or charm that captivates or intrigues, often used to describe an appealing yet intangible attribute in people, situations, or even the “vibe” of a political atmosphere) evokes militarism in the breast of freedom lovers.
The odor of it? Not quite rotten, not good, but haunting and familiar. Perhaps we have a few readers in the eastern Ohio or West Virginia coal towns that could give “Starbase” a hand with how to be a proper company town and get it right?
Rooty Toot
A number of readers warned me prior to the root canal this week that “They are dangerous for seniors.”
But are they? Yes, if you don’t have a serious dental issues to begin with, it’s not something you’d just go out and do for fun because that would add unnecessary risk to life. BUT, what is the book if you have a toothy root issue?
“For a senior, letting a root canal go untreated is generally more dangerous than getting the procedure when needed. An untreated infection can spread, leading to severe pain, abscesses, bone loss, or systemic issues like sepsis, which can be life-threatening, especially in older adults with compromised immune systems. A root canal, when performed by a qualified dentist, is a safe, routine procedure that eliminates infection and preserves the tooth, with risks like complications or discomfort being far outweighed by the dangers of inaction.”
For now (and an oral surgery for a deeper abscess in an adjoining tooth in July) sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and make the “least worst decision.” Thing is, as you get older, constant, low-level infections can really open the doorway to other health problems.
Yes, it’s a risk, but sometimes you have to “cowboy up” and do a little pain now instead of a lot of prematurely dead, later.
File Under: “Rooty Toot Yields Toothy Truth.”
OK, column scrawled. Can I get some drugs now?
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
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