The “Complex Reaper” – BYOG Friday – Are Dreams Communicable?

Not to frame this in too much of a Peoplenomics / deep-thinking manner, but there are two ways one can generally view the world.  And since I left the world of “tearing down the overnight wire” tasks, even before RSS appeared, that’s likely a good value proposition to ponder.

Not just now – but likely for several weeks – and maybe even months to come.  Our two years of food and water planning were open to criticism when we began, but perhaps less so now.  As energy hoarding, reports Stiks from down-under, is quickly getting news traction.

Tainter of Tindale?

A learned and multi-lingual colleague (and occasional essayist, Capt. Gooding) made passing reference in an email overnight to “Tindale’s Crashcade” coming into view.  Skeptical, I queried if he’d meant Joseph Tainter.  

Tainter’s core point (in Collapse of Complex Societies) was simple enough: societies solve problems by adding layers of complexity, and for a while that works. Until it doesn’t. Because eventually every new layer costs more energy, more management, and more extraction than the benefit it returns. At that point, complexity stops being a solution and starts becoming overhead.

There is, however, a good chance my esteemed colleague was referring to Craig Tindale, another cornerstone thinker in Collapstrophy theory. Crashcades are more his turf.

See, where Tainter gave us the long-arc anthropology of collapse, Tindale’s version is more like modern systems failure: one broken valve in the global machine and suddenly oil, debt, food, logistics, politics, and public order all begin tripping over one another.

See Hormuz for a current example. Tensions continue to escalate in the Strait of Hormuz as 3 commercial ships attacked.

I’m hoping some day Capt. Gooding and I can sip a little “Maker’s Liver” and debate the fine points of Collapse Propagation Theory.  It promises to be miserable to live through but academically decisive. With a buttery and oaky finish. And sticks.

“BYOG” (Bring Your Own Goat)

The read-in on this came from exploring the OED to understand the verb to scape — meaning to escape, get away, or avoid. Which was enough to send me, briefly, into a left-margin detour on Trumpscaping versus old-fashioned scapegoating over on the right.

But before I could get too cute with it, two economic goats showed up needing immediate attention.  Put on your aprons, brethren:

Goat #1 is GDP

Say goodbye, growth: “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.”

Translation:  Work hard, get less.

Goat #2 is Personal Income (and outlays)

This goat is a little more wiggly: “Personal income increased $113.8 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $219.9 billion (0.9 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $81.1 billion (0.4 percent).”

Translation: No, you didn’t really get more. Prices, taxes, and replacement costs keep moving higher, so let’s weave a little Goldilocks around that, shall we?

If you’re of a certain age, try reading either press release as a bedtime story. You will quickly discover whether you’re holding a fairy tale or a warning label.

Ballistic Markets

The markets loved the goats.  Maybe because it means there’s room for improvement? Or is that hype?  To us, the close Thursday was a harbinger worth looking at.

How close are markets – based on early futures – from the “R-Moment” – meaning recognition moment – when the world realizes we have dropped under the critical 200-day moving average?

Well, our Aggregate Index only has 172.08  points to fall.  The Dow Jones Industrials need to only lose 108.01.  The S&P is doing real work from 47.25 points “above disaster.”  And then there’s the techs.  Just 34.32 from busting the 200 DMA on a closing basis.

Hello, Houston?  We have a problem.

That could be a “quietly slips beneath the waves by mid-afternoon.  We’re only a headline away.  Or, someone could spill the MiracleGro, though we think the “slow release Osmokote” is more what’s needed now.  Up today. But, buy extra Kleenex for a potential Black Monday.

We aren’t saying it will.  But Kleenex is also useful for (ahem…) after screwing and that milestone is way back in the rearview.  (So to speak…)

In the Shorts

Boxers or briefs?

Boxers first: Trump endorses boxer Jake Paul for office during Kentucky visit.

Briefs Follow: Out in the Bay Area:  Brief cooldown tomorrow before potential record-breaking heat.

We need to pause and ask “Is AI going below the belt?” Alexa+ Now Has a Sassy Personality That Hits Back With Sarcasm, Profanity | PCMag

And one from the crime-and-memory desk: Nancy Guthrie Day 40 of search; Valley superintendent quits after heated meeting. Anyone up for a Depression-era echoes rap?

Around the Ranch: Communicable Dreams?

Interesting observation, since we live a “remote life” in the woods.  We have very little day-to-day contact with the outside world.  By design.  And there are two reasons for it.  First is (obviously) health.  One way to never “catch colds” is to stay away from carriers.  Meaning: other people.

This leads to the second reason: A suspicion that Humans Cause Death.  They can bring unwanted ideas, viruses, and behavioral change into your life – the kind that works in a subtle way.  So that’s the set-up.

One person came by yesterday. My FedEx driver – and we had a quick chat about what’s going on in his life (Thursday was “poker night”) and so on.

Here’s the interesting part:  When people come here – and there’s interaction – it seems to trigger more intense dreams.

Last night’s adventure in the dream realms was a HUGE multiple day adventure which involved running across drug dealers – talking them out of sabotaging their hideout before the po-po raided it and…well, a kind of Miami Vice dream.

But at the end?  A very strong message to mention two names in the column today.  Tfalo and Rainila.

I have no idea why because I’d never heard of Tfalo before.  Turns out to be a game “silent basketball.”

And Rainila? This is where – given Elaine and me being fascinated with Antiaging approaches – it gets really interesting.

• It’s a surname –  Rainila has roots in the Nordic regions, particularly Finland.
• Similar female names popped up, too: “Reinella” is a girl’s name of Italian origin, sometimes considered a variant of Renée (“reborn”) or related to the Spanish reina (“queen”). (Ah…Elaine as a queen?)

As usual, I awoke to the usual “What the hell was that all about?”

Which left me with a topic to ponder: Does casual interaction with other people in some way trigger dream levels?  Or, to sharpen a bit: Is there some aspect of dreaming that is communicable in the waking state?

Hmm… Maybe I need to sleep on it.

Write when you get rich,

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