People unable to learn — or unwilling to deal with data — are about to be dashed on the rocks of history.
As we figure it — being a bit slow-witted and all — it really comes down to two simple things.
- Individuals, organizations, and governments have a remarkable inability to recognize Truth when it wanders in.
Which tees up our first observation of the morning: What is the biggest battle in finance right now? The answer is in the upper right corner of our Aggregate Index today.
Here’s the simplified read-in:
- I cooked up the Aggregate Index in 2000 because market shills pretended that the Internet Bubble train wreck didn’t matter. Sure, between $5 and $7 trillion disappeared, but Wall St. didn’t miss a beat.
- Then, we tracked the Housing Bubble collapse 2007-2009 and saw the same denial again.
- From there, we saw bubbles were not isolated events, but successive ones. So from the 2022 major low, we began looking at wave counts.
- Depending on which model of financial behavior you savor, you can see how we might ask (what this chart does): “Is the present wave 5 rolling over?”
- And if it is, then what magnitude is the new down? Will it be smallish – like “normal” semi-annual down waves? Bigger like the 10-11 cycles? Or something larger — like a Depression-starter in the Kondratieff class? (Which is also spelled Kondratiev or Kondratyev by historical-revisionist economists who don’t like the American Economic Society Kondratieff spelling used in 1927 on actual papers by you-know-who… We still roll old-school around here.)
That’s between you, your cerebral cortex and pattern-matching skills. We don’t offer financial advice — just economic discussion. But we do go deep there.
Contraindications and Hype
Reality is becoming a little rougher to talk-over this week.
Those are the “static crashes” that keep most people from capturing signal – due to high overriding noise. Around here? Think of us as a kind of “noise blanker” site.
Jobs Data?
Yeah – despite the partial shutdown, actual data is out. But it wasn’t good…
Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care decreased, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down.
This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.
Dow futures – down a hundredish – were pushing down 300 after the drop.
And BTC is back under $70,000 again, too.
The Second Biggest Question
It should be “What are we going to do about it?”
But the cat’s out of the bag and the answer is obvious. Most people will do absolutely nothing.
Here’s how we know this by just observing the people around us (or used to, at least before we fled urban mass madness in 2004):
- Most people statistically can’t keep ideal weight.
- Most people don’t get enough exercise.
- Most people don’t have a personal Life Plan.
- Most people don’t have a schedule to implement plans.
So with a laggard and sluggish population, you were expecting what?
I don’t mean to go off all preachy on this. But thanks to social media, America is “Full of Spew But Little DO.”
And that’s why, heading into the weekend in cash, working the latest crop of bean sprouts out of the food reactor, and bracing for what may be coming, it amazes us that anyone still has time to turn on the media and strain their ears just to capture more static crashes. The Big Signal should be obvious.
It just doesn’t make sense. Unless the world really is crazy. And I haven’t been able to locate a warranty card.
Spew Over Do – Part 2
With food stocks looking sketchy long-term, and my schedule features cleaning out the rain barrel catchment system, how about the weekly “Drought Shout”?
Cut a diagonal line, from about Spokane, Washington down to the upper east coast of Florida and the temps are set to continue well above average in the West and Southwest. And rain? After maybe a good pee’s worth this weekend? Nope.
I forget where it was, but an old saying was “Lift your eyes to the hills/horizon because from there shall come your salvation.” Well, around here, we look at the event horizon constantly and all we see coming are more problems. And potential threats like food shortages by fall.
Breaking Static Crashes?
Purely coincidental, we’re sure: Justice Department publishes documents with sexual assault allegations against Trump – POLITICO just as House Democrat moves to impeach Pam Bondi over handling of Epstein files.
The new second provisional patent app I’ll be filing opens up new doors beyond simple weighting in LLMs – which is how US DoD and Anthrop[ic parted ways: Pentagon labels AI company Anthropic a supply chain risk ‘effective immediately’
And here, have a slice of “New Normal” for breakfast: US, Venezuela agree to reestablish diplomatic relations | AP News
Around the Ranch: Gutter Ball
On the evaporating odds of heavy rain this weekend, off to clean lean-to greenhouse gutters.
And not answer the phone. Because son G2 will no doubt notice on the security web cams that someone is walking around with a ladder.
Sometimes there’s common sense and other times necessity rules.
Write if it rains,
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