This is a two-parter today. Here, I spill my guts about markets and (living in the) woods life. Then, across the top of the hour, the Case-Shiller Housing data rolls, so y’all come back, here?
First, congrats to The Economic Fractalist for calling the break well. I think he’s posting on Thursdays, so be sure to visit then.
Elliott Problem Next
Why do I call it a “problem?”
Well, have a look at our state variance extremes model. See this?
Yes, we went down (Hoo-rah TEF) but is it the end of the world?
That, dear reader, is where things get sketchy and why this is like the old Musketeer’s Club “Anything Can Happen Day.”
TEF’s pessimism is echoed in our Ebbinghaus-Ure model. Which has the look of a “dead men walking” market.
But, here’s a sampling of the things that could (or MIGHT) prevent collapse and the rollover of Western Civilization just a bit longer than folks expect. (No, we don’t offer warranties!)
- VIX is high. We didn’t get particularly low in the VIX.
- SVE (state variance extreme) looks “due” for a bust above upper band.
- ELLIOTT is incomplete. Which means (point to the Bears) that we may have only done a 1 or 3 down and the bottom could still fall out.
- Markets are digesting Tariffs. Which way this pops might depend on the whims of Mania Central.
- War’s pending. Iran is on the edge. Ukraine peace talks are like that last cough of winter’s last cold (unproductive), and Big Trouble for Little China (Taiwan) is just one more “purge-lite” from Xi ringing that bell.
- Come back for the Housing inflation. Because that will call “Spend to the End” or “Take the money and run” for the spring.
- Hot inflation could reprice stocks. Whether UP or Down? Aye, there’s the rub. Some would reprice higher, others lower. This is like the Hialeah dog track back in the day.
For us? Sitting on the sidelines with hot coffee and no calendar makes sense.
Just remember, markets don’t “crash” from recent highs. They crash from lows. And since we can meander down before we get into the state extreme lower region we can think of as “way oversold”.
We will remind you of this: We are under the 85 DMA (day moving average) and the 200 beckons. Widows and orphans should be seated in the lifeboats already as the Capital markets hitting the silk at 200 will be “Everyone out of the pool” time.
That’s when the pool will reveal it’s full of piranhas. Some private, some venture, some regulatory, some governmental, some safety netters.
Kapok or closed cell foam, partner?
News as a Train Wreck Study
The bridge is out and the children are still playing with matches department…
Ukraine: Still killing and thrilling: Zelenskyy’s public frustration grows as Putin’s war enters a 5th year.
There went tourism, huh? Travelling to Mexico? Here’s what you need to know following cartel violence outbreak. (Does Mexico have open carry? Answer: Private citizens generally may own guns under Mexican law, but carrying them in public — either openly or concealed — is highly restricted and mostly prohibited without special authorization. So do cartels give a flying?)
Markets prep for a “micro-bounce” at the open as: Trump fumes against the world as his tariffs come up short | Reuters
What’s UP when the chips are down> Meta and AMD agree to AI chips deal worth more than $100 billion. Pocket change…
And do you ever notice? How when Texas had Snowmageddon it was a “who cares” but a pretty normal winter on the East Coast is a climate landmark? Insane Photos of NYC During the Massive Blizzard of 2026. Now, drop the “s” from insane…and you’re there!
Around the Ranch: The Keto Gardener
Humans can run keto when they’ve been overfeeding the furnace for a few decades. Drop the carbs, burn the fat, shrink the belt line. Makes sense if you’ve been living like a grain silo with Wi-Fi.
But try that stunt on a tomato plant and you’ll get a lesson in basic biology right quick. Because plants are carb factories.
That’s not a metaphor. That’s their job description. Photosynthesis is literally a sugar manufacturing operation. Sunlight in, carbohydrates out. Cellulose, lignin, fruit sugars, structural mass — it’s all carbon chains. You don’t “cut carbs” in a garden. Carbs are the mission.
In hydroponics, if you starve nitrogen or underfeed the solution thinking you’re being clever and minimalist, the plants don’t get lean. They get pale. Slow growth. Weak stems. Small fruit. It’s not discipline — it’s deficiency.
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
When humans go keto, insulin drops and the kidneys dump sodium. That’s why the smart keto crowd supplements electrolytes. Sodium, potassium, magnesium. You don’t replace them and you feel like you’ve been run over by a truck full of kale. Just watch the BP as you wolf down the Van Holten bar dills.
In hydro, push growth hard and the plants will strip calcium and magnesium out of solution faster than you can say “blossom end rot.” Skip the Cal-Mag balance and you get tip burn, fruit collapse, weak cell walls. The plant equivalent of leg cramps and brain fog. Ask how I know.
Electrolytes for mammals. Cal-Mag for tomatoes.
Same physics. Different plumbing.
What hydro really teaches isn’t food fads. It teaches balance. Chemistry doesn’t care about ideology. You can’t will a pepper plant into ketosis. Its entire evolutionary program is to build sugars and stack carbon like a bricklayer on speed.
And there’s a broader lesson here. When you’re 800 pounds over, keto might save your life.
When you’re a garden, carbs are the whole point. Rack and stack.
Systems have purposes. You don’t optimize a system by fighting its mission. You optimize it by understanding what it was built to do. Think of it this way: Markets do volatility. Plants do carbohydrates. Humans do overindulgence. (Then regret.)
The trick — whether you’re trading, gardening, or trying to get your belt back a notch — is knowing which system you’re managing at the moment.
Lettuce doesn’t argue with thermodynamics. Tomatoes don’t subscribe to diet newsletters. (most of ’em can’t read well.) They take sunlight, water, balanced minerals, and they build food. Maybe there’s something to learn from that.
Now, pass the Cal-Mag. And hold the gluten for the glutes.
“WTH? What are you saying???”
Remember the part where I was going to roll with plans for Hour a Day Gardening? Well, that site will be leaving the (public) web shortly to move under the Peoplenomics umbrella. So will the Time-Engineering website. Before that one goes, you might want to read The Farmer’s Clock and Other Stories – Time Engineering. Eventually, even ShopTalk Sunday will go “inside.”
The specific answer to your question, though? I may be learning focus. Even in gardening.
We have a fair supply of hydroponic units like the MUFGA 12 and 18 pod hydroponic units. But, after a winter of low use, one of them failed in an unusual way: The water pump filter got sucked into the small water pump impeller. Actually found a YouTube video on how to fix it.
They are similar to this brand which there’s an “Amazon Deal” on.
When you buy off the shelf hydroponics, think through the pod count. If you are using your hydroponics (you’ll need seeds, too) for transplanting, then shop by plant site count (pods). But, if you’re going for indoor herbs, bigger root balls, then you might want larger spacing. Then a 10 or 12 pod unit works better.
This all gets into using a hydroponics meter (and setting cal-mag and carb levels) if you don’t already have tubs of Maxi-Gro laid in.
The Systems Change in World?
Hydroponics teaches an interesting lesson. When I was young, friends owned 10,000 ac res near Royal City, WA. They had 5,000 irrigated, big feed lot, a hunting club on Crab Creek with its own fly-in gravel strip. And a Feedlot operation. Tons of work but man, did they raise food.
Fast forward: Hard to get that kind of land, but you can still get the fresh food and do it locally. But the role has changed from sweaty farmer to system integrator. You pick the “basic system” you desire, then upgrade components (like I’ve updated the power supplies and am putting in a small UPS for the hydroponics) and lots of other tweaks.
That’s the kind of system-level change that people don’t think about unless someone points it out. Like going to a library as a kid. Now, with a web connection, the best libraries of the world are point and click.
Instead of wondering “Gee, how hard can I push my hydroponic plants with added carbs?” Now, I get those kinds of answers online in under an hour.
For example, a YouTube video by Evergreen Gardeners here, got me more closely studying calcium’s role and that (by extensibility) led to carb-loading.
The biggest tragedy around today? People aren’t fully utilizing this new (and amazing) capacity to do personal system integration (and yes, AI “assistants” is a big part too). It will take a few decades to learn integrative thinking and behaviors.
With work and sweat? World moves closer to heaven on Earth – at least while it lasts. And that, my friend, is about the best we can do and remain individuated.
Write when something grows between the ears, It’s Taco Tuesday tonight!
Read the full article here
