SoU Countdown Rally, Euro Stews, “Guide Pines”?

We don’t expect a lot of fireworks today.  A fine day to finish writing a new chapter of my next book, Downsizing, which is being serialized on  the Peoplenomics.com site for subscribers.  Along with the charts and so forth and such-not.

With showers moving through Texas and a mid-week cold snap, we have a brief reprieve before real work recommences out here in the woods.  A Monday of “click-to-shop” and writing.  Could be worse.

SoU Countdown  Rally

Bitcoin, which has nibbled at the lower end of $95,000 was back down into the $92.5k range at press time.  But, then again, the U.S. Dollar was weaker, which meant Gold and Silver were up a bit.  And that takes stock futures with ’em.

Because, you see, there are two parts to investing anymore.  The larger part is the tidal movement of “hot money” which pushes systemic pricing.

• When the Dollar is strong:
  • Takes fewer to buy imported goods, price (ex-tariffs) trend down.
  • Doesn’t cost as much to “buy the Dow” so equities can fall.
  • Bitcoin and the crypto con slide as Dollar faith is restored
  • Gold & Silver (the PGM) drops, too.
• With the weaker Dollar, the opposite tends to happen:
  • Imports go up (takes more of our paper/ply money to buy ’em)
  • The Dow (and real estate) rises in response to future inflation.
  • Faith in the Dollar crumbles and people will buy anything
  • And this is favorable for the Gold, Silver, Platinum precious metals.

As a result, when we take a first cut through the morning headlines, it’s to see “which way the tide is running.”  Today – early at least – Stock futures were up, BTC was trying to rise, gold and silver were up, and (did tariff’s really happen this weekend? No, tomorrow now.) look for groceries, gas, and goods to edge up, as well.

With the Trump State of the Train Wreck tomorrow, the market has been rising (Friday and carrying into today) ahead of events.  But that’s because of Calendar Effects, as much as anything:

There’s no definitive, universal rule that stocks are always lowest or highest at a specific time of the month, because stock prices are influenced by a complex mix of factors—earnings reports, economic data, geopolitical events, and market sentiment, to name a few. However, some patterns and theories have been observed over time, often tied to investor behavior, institutional activity, or seasonal trends. But there’s a bunch of dandy theory to toss in your coffee:

1. End-of-Month Strength: Stocks sometimes see a slight uptick toward the end of the month. This can be linked to portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors—think mutual funds or pension funds adjusting their holdings to match benchmarks or report performance. Cash inflows from payrolls or dividends around this time might also nudge buying activity. Monety managers want to get it deployed because (think commissions!).
2. Turn-of-the-Month Effect: Research has suggested that stocks often perform better from the last few days of one month into the first few days of the next. A study by the American Economic Review (2013) found this “turn-of-the-month” period historically outperforms other days, possibly due to systematic buying from retirement contributions or fund allocations hitting the market. Some retirement funds come in (and welfare checks) so short-term prices can be up.
3. Mid-Month Lulls: Some traders speculate that mid-month (around the 10th to 20th) can be quieter or see dips, as there’s less scheduled economic news or earnings activity compared to month-ends or beginnings. It’s not a hard rule, though—more of a anecdotal observation. Expect for the welfare checks on the 15th, and retailers want as much as they can grab so look for mid-month “deals.”  Also, some rebalancing occurs either side of options (third Friday of the month) and alternating weeks with Bank Settlement Days.
4. Seasonal Trends Over Monthly Ones: While you asked about times within a month, it’s worth noting that broader seasonal patterns like “Sell in May and go away” or the January Effect (small-cap stocks rising early in the year) often overshadow intra-month moves. October, for instance, has a reputation for volatility and occasional lows (think 1929, 1987), but that’s yearly, not monthly timing. Prices in January tend weaker (Santa shook out the wallets) and mid April people tend to “feel poor” so you might want to shop cruise prices then…

There is a ton of “Useless News” around today.  People with opinions (which are like butts, right?) have to spew things like My State of the Union message: Restore separation of powers. The “my” writing ain’t the President, so JAG *just-another-guy.  Similarly useless? Senator Elissa Slotkin to give Democratic rebuttal to Trump’s State of the Union.  Which will be predictably critical because Trump could walk on water and the democrats would bitch about him splashing water.

In other words, a nothing burger.

Pardon us, if we just “watch the wind” a bit in order to see “which way things will blow.” One of the few (not me-me-me) versions of near-term future is Trump speech to Congress expected to key on Ukraine, national security.  Which, not having your head up your ass, you probably knew anyway.  But, like the old newspaper reporters would whine over drinks with us “radio guys” at the old Seattle Press Club on top of the Edgewater back in the day (when Don McGavin was driving a Mini*): News is just what fills up the pages holding ads.

[*I had had never been so scared in my life, to that point, when McGavin got his Mini airborne on one of the hills in downtown Seattle…great reporter and hell of a driver, to boot. The best.]

So, breathless SoU hysteria aside, calmer views will help your blood pressure. We’re all (statistically) likely to live till Wednesday.

Except in Ukraine

After being unable to do shit for 3+, behold Europe is now trying to Dictate again!  UK, European leaders join forces to draft Ukraine peace plan to take to US.  Our unabashed view is “Ya’ll had your chance and blew it so STFU and sit down.  Propaganda phrases (like join forces) translates to either farces or something less polite.

Tears and Crumpets? Look what the jet dragged in! King Charles meets with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at Sandringham.  Dandy.

EuroShit continues to reflect liberal Europe’s inability to think straight.  See, near as we can figure it, a Truce is like a Pregnancy.  You are, or you ain’t.  But the squishy think that brought the world 54-genders has now seeped into other mental processes in France where Britain and France propose partial one-month Ukraine truce — Macron.

I’ve only been covering news for, um, 60-years now, so can the Honorable French Dude HFD please explain to the multitude on chair’s edge: Who is it OK to shoot during a partial Truce? Spray paint Bulls eye’s on people on alternating Tuesdays, for example?

Seeing why Europe is crazy?  I mean, if it wasn’t obvious before.  Wait.  Let’s appoint a Commission.  Yes, that’s it.  We’ll study War to death!  Ought to be able to get another decade out of it…

SBTE (the last three letters mean between the ears; we trust you can guess at the first?)

And it’s going global as here we have a Japanese media outfit whining Editorial: US, Ukraine need to repair relations after Trump-Zelenskyy row, resume talks – The Mainichi.

No we don’t. Arrogant prick.  Who hasn’t bothered to hold elections and is illegally ruling. Why, it’s so obvious that even Lindsey Graham Slams Zelensky over Refusal to Resign.

Say, here’s a voice of reason speaking before the  US elections: “WOW: @RobertKennedyJr gives an incredible description of the money laundering fraud that has been driving the Ukraine v Russia war If Americans understood this, they would take to the streets. Insane corruption!   Oh, and should you doubt it?  Zelensky admits that if Ukraine gets NATO membership, then he has “fulfilled his mission”.

And it that doesn’t sound like WW3 material? Putin unleashes Iskander-M missile attack to ‘sink container ship in Odesa carrying cargo of British weapons for Ukraine’

But it’s already in play as Study of 9 Million Confirms Covid ‘Vaccines’ Cause AIDS.

And it that’s not enough of an attack on the homeland? It is unknown whether lab-grown “meat” is safe to eat and it does not meet the US legal definition of meat; yet the FDA has given it approval to be sold.

Statecraft Lesson from Our Consigliere

Feeling overwhelmed?  Well, sure, you’re supposed to.  Because maybe tomorrow President Trump will outlinge (for the slow people in the room – which includes most of Europe) what the “real deal” is with U.S. “end the Ukraine War efforts are all about.  Our Consigliere laid it out this weekend in a conference call.

“When I was doing my economic research in 1979 it became crystal clear that in global economic cycles we are due for War with China in 2026-2028.  What NO ONE is talking about is that with their (expletives deleted) European War of Expansion, NATO is  driving Russia into the arms of China.  Anyone who knows the global resource and economics picture can see it plain as day.  We can live with or compete with Russia. But China is out to rule the world and they are building for a war to take out America and turn the US into the New China. And that war is only a couple of years out…”

So: Euro Idiots drive Russia into a tighter alliance with Russia, China (with Iran?) takes the Middle East, and then we have China taking the US West, coming up through Central America.  Seeing yet why control of the Panama Canal matters?  This whole Ukraine thing (and China green lighting NK troops into Russia) is all to put super glue between Moscow and Beijing.  Trump needs to neutralize China’s role and detox Russian Relations, or the Rockies will be the Western Border of the U.S. in 10-years, or less.

You do remember the Japanese border in Man in the High Castle, right? The Rockies.  Except that will be the Chinese instead and Clinton/Obama/Biden/Fauci selling China tech to do gain of function about ensures the end of Caucasians before 2050.  WTFU, seriously.  You think they’re making dim sum at Wuhan these days?

Only question is whether the US got moving on epicanthal-targeting gene work before Biden passed out dresses and high heels to everyone in the military.

Elon Musk on X: “The reality of war.  It’s a picture and says it all.

Cretin Crawlers

The leftwing coup still hasn’t resulted in charges – but we live in hope. MIND-BLOWING: Just 7,000 Leftist politically connected NGOs are hoarding 90% of all taxpayer money meant for nonprofits. Roughly $300 billion in government money flows to nonprofits every year—with zero transparency on where that money actually goes.

Wait, isn’t it still winter? More than 175 wildfires across South and North Carolina force evacuations.

Once in a Blue Moon? Firefly’s Blue Ghost becomes second private spacecraft with moon landing

And as common sense continues to “smoke the woke joke” Pepsi Drops DEI But Remains Key Player in Push for Social Change.  Do American companies understand what the f**k a “lane” is?  Like you don’t see Ford mnaking HFCS poison pop, do you?  Ford stays in its lane.  If you think Poopsi can make better social change than elected government, you need to get into counseling.  Like today…

Around the Ranch: US Postal and Storage

As we explained last week, I ordered a sleeve of five radio tubes from a fellow just 50-miles away.  He dropped it off in Fairfield, Texas on February 21.  And from there, things are still going to shit:

So: Ordered Feb 20, Post office has had it since Feb 21, the package has been to Arizona for a vacation and now no one can find it.   I ordered another batch from the supplier (good dude, good prices) but if you want a poster-child for incompetence (and the SDNY or EU seems too distant) look no further than the USPS distro center in Coppell, Texas.

(Disclusure:  This is actually somewhat entertaining and it’s an easy part of the column to write.  Reminds people that incomptence is still alive and well and…makes writing really easy, doesn’t it?)

Guide Pines?

OK, why did I wake up this morning from a dream where I was told “You need to look up Guide Pines” and everything will become clear…

What the hell are guide pines?

1. Forestry & Land Navigation – In some logging and forestry operations, guide pines are specific trees left standing to help orient workers or machinery in navigating through a forest. They might also mark property boundaries, trails, or hazard zones.
2. Woodworking & Milling – In sawmills, “guide pines” could refer to guide trees or logs used to keep cuts straight or maintain alignment during processing.
3. Military & Hunting Use – In some military or survival contexts, guide pines might be used as natural landmarks to navigate through dense forests.
4. Metaphorical or Cultural Use – Some writers or philosophers might use “guide pines” metaphorically, referring to individuals or principles that help direct others, similar to how guideposts function.

Great!  Now, what’s the point? (stay tuned – or there may not be one…)

Write when the mail shows up…

George@Ure.net