Market futures were down following yesterday’s rally at an unusual time. In our Aggregate markets view, the Tech sector had continued to lag and could not reach a “necessary kiss” at overhead resistance.
When we look at our Aggregate Index (an index of indices of U.S. markets), we are just now “walking resistance higher”. In a slower market, this would have been a region where a decisive break higher could have been predicted. But problematically, the blow-off we are in is moving so damn fast, it may be pricing a move to the “top of trend channel” out of reach.
With even a modest pullback today, we are at risk of dropping under that (yellow, upper right) trend channel bottom. That’s how these “kiss of trend” things seem to work.
The Ebbinghaus Gap
Please forgive me if I drop into “Peoplenomics mode” in here. But, as you know, I recently evolved two “new things” which are very interesting mathematical views of markets.
The first is what I call the Ebbinghaus-Ure Correlation. Which hints that due to human memory effect, past market action (up, or down) “wears off” over time. As this happens, lessons from past losses and gains come to hold less sway (less inhibiting of price-action) over time.
Let me walk you through it.
Let’s take a test case (NASDAQ composite from September ) and zoom in on the “retracement to lower trend.”
In the circle on the right, we still haven’t gone fully to trend resistance, and so our present morning expectation is split: The techs really need to hit the overhead trend line, BUT it is not “necessary.”
And that’s because we have an “Ebbinghaus-Ure Gap” in play. Here’s how it looks:
The red arrow on the right is the mystery of the moment. Because there is an “Ebbinghaus Gap” in the data.
What it is, and what it means:
In a nutshell, each of those lines above is a successively-longer time based price of a moving average. At the very top line in the series is either present close (or Futures price open) and you’ll notice that it hooks down at the open.
It’s axiomatic that in all Major Declines, the Current price drops under the 2-day. As a decline speeds-up, the 2 crosses under the 3-day average, and so forth.
What’s really striking in the Ebbinghaus-Ure view today is that we have a gap, beginning with, oh, 7-9 day averages. Long ago, I started “clustering” markets into “fast Bulls and slow Bulls” (with Bear-side equivalents).
I will lay out what “the Ebbinghaus gap” might mean in more detail on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow. But for now, it’s worth noticing that the “early adopters” of a price trend have clustered and are moving up. And in the next week, or three, we will get a more complete view of the implications for longer-term investments.
Rumors of War
We put little to no weight in stories like this – which popped on X overnight: on X: “@defense_civil25 It is now midnight in Moscow, a very important meeting in the Kremlin between Putin, the Russian Security Council, and the commander of the Axis armies and the allies. Things are hot. There is news saying that Trump wants an escalation against Russia and…
Still, we find this an interesting bit of (refer to Clif’s discussion of the qualia) how “News appears to hint at future.” But it also has a second function. It serves to moderate the change state. In other words, the slow-rollers in markets will seize on things like the X post above and use it to continue justifying their not joining the rally that the “fast Bulls” are on – which, as we see in the traces of differential moving averages are very much going through what we can think of as “Break Point Trump.”
Disclosures
Who killed Kennedy? We should know shortly. And we should know about government hands related to the MLK assassination and a lot more. As…
“PROVIDING AMERICANS THE TRUTH AFTER SIX DECADES OF SECRECY: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order entitled Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, and the Reverend Doctor Martin Luther King Jr.
The Executive Order establishes the policy that, more than 50 years after these assassinations, the victims’ families and the American people deserve the truth.
Specifically, the Order directs the Director of National Intelligence and other appropriate officials to:
(1) Present a plan within 15 days for the full and complete release of all John F. Kennedy assassination records; and
(2) Immediately review the records relating to the Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. assassinations and present a plan for their full and complete release within 45 days.”
Still, until all the docs and facts are on the table, pardon us for being skeptical. Which has been the correct assessment for over half a century. Deep State hates their dirty laundry coming out. Will Trump’s action trigger false flags to deflect? We don’t trust nothing.
Rolling Up Trump Hate
Trump Hate is ramping up. (Again, refer to the E/U Gap discussion above); The left biased NY Magazine is a fine example: Trump’s War on DEI Opens the Door to Jim Crow’s Return.
Let’s go for an airplane ride, to make a point.
It’s about 5:30 in the afternoon and all day, heavy thunderstorms have been lighting up over Florida as northern air collides with the Caribbean heat. There’s lightning, people are reaching for the barf bags and the turbulence is horrific. One passenger already suffered a broken arm. The tower just advised to slow up the approach for landing until a microburst moves off the runway centerline. You begin to feel sick.
Now: Who do you want at the controls of the aircraft with 192 souls on short final in a violent storm?
A. A DEI hire whose simulator results were awful.
B. The pilot who (regardless of race or gender) was the absolute highest competence pilot ever to take a check-ride.
If you picked “A” I think you’re an idiot. If you picked “B” then you may have a future.
The left-leaning media throws around spurious emo-words “Jim Crow” and the like, but we hold firmly to the idea that in fire, police, medicine, and air transport (just to name a few) there is only ONE standard consisting of Competence and Excellence.
America (liberal bent) education is a big part of the problem:
“As of now, the United States education ranking is in the 13th place with a score of 0.883, trailing behind countries like Germany (2nd) and New Zealand (3rd). In the QS World University Rankings 2023, 11 out of the top 20 universities are American, including prestigious institutions like MIT, Stanford, and Harvard.”
Trump Hate, II
Another issue – which has the left going nuts – is this whole “anchor baby” deal. A (Seattle) federal judge has issued a 14-day TRO (temporary restraining order) barring the “anchor baby” Executive Order.
For those who understand that Trump is a negotiator – and he will always start higher than expected – we think it’s clear. He’s starting at “anchor babies” in general, but the real goal is illegal entrant’s giving birth here. That’s a reasonable “negotiating line” but the differences and anger? Wow…hard to comprehend the level of hate behind it.
Still, the liberals are running hard – with heart-string stories like Undocumented Women Fear for Unborn Children After Trump’s Birthright Citizenship Order. Trump’s point: Get legal to get citizenship. I know, too simple to comprehend, especially with liberal earplugs in. Undocumented people have no business in America…that’s law. Anyone who claims otherwise is a revolutionary bent on street ignorance to overthrow the rule of law.
The problem?
Not a crime per se:
Being undocumented alone does not constitute a criminal offense.
Illegal entry is a crime:
Entering the US without authorization at a port of entry is considered a criminal offense.
The liberal’s can’t wrap their heads around the “well, how did they get here?” part while (rather stupidly) remaining wholly focused on the first part. Which – we suppose – proves liberals cannot hold two nuanced ideas in mind at the same time without going into fits of litigation and street violence.
Political win: Mexican Military Dismantles 2025’s First Migrant Caravan: Trump’s Leadership Inspires Tough Action on Illegal Immigration. While here in resurgent America Border Czar Tom Homan confirms, “We’ve arrested 1300 people, over a thousand of them are criminals.” The Obama-Biden insurrection is ending…
And Texas wants to be compensated: Texas asks for $11B border security reimbursement.
Trolling the Headlines
Ukraine has crossed another line: Zelensky’s Videos Breach Geneva Conventions-Human Rights Watch. Trump, or no Trump, Putin’s going to over-react one of these days…
Taiwan is beefng up homeland defenses: Military to increase troops in greater Taipei .
Move over Leaning Tower of Pisa: Building in Taipei evacuated after structure begins to tilt. Not sure of the politics of this – the buildings leaned to the left…
Still, there’s sign of rational life returning to the news flow: Government by Hysteria: The Climate and Covid Hobgoblins Begin to Fade – Watts Up With That?
At the Ranch: Ham Radio Weekend
Our “ShopTalk” Sunday article will deal with “The Radio Detective” this weekend. As I roll through some tube type radio repairs.
This is also ham radio’s Winter Field Day weekend, too. More details at Home – WFDA. If you have a home receiver, you can pick up some of the activity here:
SSB Voice transmissions will be sent at 18:00 UTC (10 am PST) on
January 25th and again at 00:00 UTC on January 26th (4 pm PST January
25th) on
40M at 7.29
20M at 14.29
15M at 21.39
10M at 28.59
Also this weekend around here, weather should be warm enough to move forward with the Big Antenna Project. But, with 2-inches of rain and some lightning due next week, I have no plans to “go Benjamin” with the project… I ain’t Lyden…
Staying Warm?
One of my winter health experiments is drawing to a close. Usually, I don’t wear an undershirt, or a second shirt over the first one. But this winter, I conducted a personal test to see if running a warmer body temp (with more clothing) would reduce the tendency of fat to show up in unwanted places (everywhere!)
After a couple of weeks without measuring, I got back on the scale this week only to discover that I’d put on five pounds. Which isn’t a lot, but it is too much. So two pseudo-science conclusions from this bit of personal research:
- Wearing a single shirt (and no tee under) does lead to more calorie burning. You get cold as hell, though.
- On the other hand, adding the tee (or an overshirt) makes life a lot more comfortable.
- And – adding homemade apple turnovers to the diet does not reduce fat accumulations. (damn!)
Back in the “under 50 grams carbs per a day” keto and that may last well paSt my birthday next month.
And let me toss in two useful new papers on Keto over on PubMed today for your reading list:
Off to breakfast while I hallucinate over toast with strawberry jam and hot cocoa with a shot of peppermint schnapps in it. Once upon a time when younger, huh?
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
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