Sort of like a meeting Agenda from the old “mahogany foxhole” days, ain’t it? We have all kinds of neat things coming together – after a bit of a ‘dry spell’ where everything was up in the air. Pardon if this is a little “check-listy” but much to cover.
Retail Now, Fed Tomorrow
First thing we have is the monthly Retail Sales report:
” Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $710.8 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2023. Total sales for the June 2024 through August 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2024 to July 2024 percent change was revised from up 1.0 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 1.1 percent (±0.2 percent).”
As for which sectors are keeping everything afloat?
Which gets us to Item #2…
Misleading Markets
We don’t offer “financial advice” around here – simply financial news with some commentary. But it was interesting Monday when my consigliere called to advise me: “New High in the Dow” – it was something he picked up from the financial channels.
While they (and he) were correct – 41,734 was a new intraday high – it may not be especially pertinent. The reason is that a broader view of markets reveals that we haven’t even gotten back to the post-July secondary high that was recorded going into Labor Day. The Monday close of our Aggregate Index was 47,574.39 while Labor Day was 47,749.47. Yes, we are close but you might hold off passing out the cigars until this baby bull is out of the delivery room.
The whole reason I came up with the Aggregate Index in the wake of the Internet Bubble back in 2000 was because it was obvious that singular indices not only concentrate risk bur also the effects of hype and hysteria. Where was the “financial press” in mid-July when – on July 16th he carded a close of 48,605.37?
Credit where due: Yes, the Dow was higher. But it was less than a hundred points higher than Labor Day so until the other markets come to the party, color us skeptical.
Don’t get me wrong, we could bust out to the upside. Here’s how the close shaped up Monday:
In the meantime, Bitcoin – which was playing kissy-oo with $64,000 Sunday – is under $60,000 today. While we see not particular value for hold a collection of “secret numbers” (which is what BTC and the other crypto cons are) it’s still a useful thermometer when checking the state of financial fever.
There’s a high degree of circularity in linked financial markets – including wet dream coins. Bitcoin Slips to $58K Amid Split Fed Rate Cut Expectations: What’s Next? Kind of leaves you wondering “If BTC is so big a deal, how could a little change in paper rates move the giant?” Unless it’s all a Big…..
Speaking of cryptos as a con, we’ve been somewhat concerned about Confused Trump struggles in ‘painful’ crypto interview and tries to change topic. Just how does one explain making up numbers – intrinsically worthless, or next door to that, and selling them in Coin of the Realm to greater fools?
Can someone please forward this to Donald Trump? Here’s What you Should Know About Trump’s New Crypto Project.
We already see how fiat/paper is just a legacy marker system left over from when Dollars could be exchanged for specie (gold and silver). CONgress and the Fed have been coasting ever since. Making up more as they go.
Widely reported is the public debt of just over $35 trillion, but at the Our Debt Clock : About : Truth in Accounting website, we see we’re already far past $156 trillion. And every taxpayer’s “share” is over $908-million.
All of which leads to a new phenomenon we label Dynamic Truth. Which goes to the idea that the World used to run on one set of Truths. That’s water under the keel, huh? All made possibly through instant information with a lack of collective context. Dandy, just glorious way to overshoot genetic success as ape body inhabitants. An Adam Smith meets Phillip K. Dick kind of place.
Ma Nature Drops By
There are several books in our research library having to do with subtle energy. Of the sort my pal The Major lectured on for 40-odd years before real groups of docs around the world. One, for example, is Dr. Robert O. Becker’s book “The Body Electric: Electromagnetism And The Foundation Of Life” for example, went into the collection in November 2011.
“You going to make a point some day, Ure?”
Well, if you insist:
If the world goes a little nuttier the normal today think posible causes and effects. Will it spill into financial circles?
Then let’s back that up with a lunar eclipse tonight: Tuesday’s harvest moon will be a partial lunar eclipse. Here’s how to watch. – The Washington Post.
[Our “how to watch” is shorter: Go outside tonight and look UP…but Jeff Bezos didn’t pay $250-million for our rag…]
Oh, and the tectonic stuff is interesting too with a Magnitude-5.1 earthquake strikes near Midland, Texas, as thousands report shaking. Might it be that when you try to suck all the oil and gas out of the Permian that the ground would settle? Who’d have thought?
Two things worth noting here. First is that it was felt by a few folks in the Dallas Fort Worth area. Second is that it comes right on schedule when several prognosticators around the ‘net had been calling for the start of preliminaries to a massive second new Madrid quake. We’re skeptical. Since we’ve got a small wager on a Seattle getting a 9.0 or bigger first, but that’s a compulsive gambler for you.
Copy Cruising
(This is what editors do in lieu of real work.)
Hand me the Mouse and the calculator: Revealed: Disney Cruise Line Overstated Its Emissions By 35 Times (forbes.com). Might make it easier to claim a big reduction in emissions later on, though, right? Also noticed an “If they build it, they will come” deal: This abandoned resort near Disney could soon get a makeover. Here’s what to expect. Not a done deal – yet. But it underscores that once we get past the silly season and if a hard landing in 2025 can be avoided, there may be a happily ever after on the far side. Little early to be putting down bets, though. We have a few problems to deal with first:
Pot calling the Kettle Dept. US presidential elections 2024: Elon Musk calls assassination post a joke, White House condemns it as irresponsible. Cue the media spinsters! Dana Bash Claims Second Would-Be Assassin’s ‘Anti-Trump Posts’ Have ‘Nothing To Do With Kamala Harris And Joe Biden’.
Pass me a war, would you? NATO is still hard selling war expansion: NATO Secretary General on long-range strikes against Russia: Biggest risk for Europe is Russian victory. But Russia is doing some expanding of its own. Putin Increases Size of Russian Army for Third Time Since War in Ukraine Began.
Guess who’s coming to dinner? Iranian President to visit US next week. Meanwhile, let’s all worry about Nuclear Power Iran: What Would It Do? (foreignpolicy.com).
In the WestPac, cat and mouse is back: Surveillance plane makes Navy’s first pass over Taiwan Strait in 5 months. To the untrained, flying a spy plane down the Taiwan Strait may seem like small potatoes – after all, it’s just water out there, right? Well, no. Let’s think this through a bit. We know the Chinese “ghost port” workers – where presumably the preps for a Taiwan invasion or blockade will be formed up – regularly take breaks when Western satellites are flying over. Those schedules are predictable. A pop-up spy plane flight is a different deal. Even back in my “turn your back to the runway, sir…” days an SR-71 was good for 85,000 feet. So, let’s imagine a Strait overfly at 70,000 feet. That will give range to optical horizon of 521 kilometers or 323 miles. Now, there’s a lot to be seen in a 600-mile diameter circle out there, particularly closer in. So yeah, people who wonder about spy flights have maybe never done the math. 85,000 feet gets you 574 km (356 mile) optical radius from altitude and so forth. Spy planes really do matter.
Need to go higher? Bring your Tic-Tac to the reported upcoming congressional hearings in November which reportedly will feature more breakout scoop.
Around the Ranch; Incremental Progress
Where to begin? Parts for the new deck railing have arrived, so after breakfast this morning. final measurements will decide if I use stock on hand or make the supply run. But that project is sneaking up on completion.
Computer repairs to the original minicomputer in our stable were completed overnight. As you might remember, I ran Wise Reg Cleaner and didn’t look at the files I was cautioned not to delete. Recovering from a SDHC card is now a new still I hope never to use again.
The new Brisqi update worked smoothly today. As you know, I’m a huge fan of simple kanban to-do lists and this one will handle five boards at the free tier and it’s very nice with dark mode and all. https://brisqi.com. Ash – the guru in charge in the new release has added pop up due dates which is mighty useful for people who can run their lives to a schedule. I’ve never been good at that. I’m more a “Pick the biggest problem and do whatever it takes, then on to the next one…”
Reader Ray is tempting me with a whole TON of great classic tube-type ham radio gear spotted on eBay. Take a look at Vintage Ham Radio Receiver Transmitter Lot Collins National RME Hallicrafters ++ | eBay Hell of a fine collection.
For now, the main ham radio projects are replacing the power control board on the Omni VII, firing up the SR-400 with the recently arrived new power supply. and getting the drones out for several antenna lifting projects. Always something, huh?
Getting older continues, too. Tomorrow we have Chapter 11 of our anti-aging book on the Peoplenomics site where we will get into (this will make more sense when you read the chapter) some of the archeology of gut biome… And speaking of which, dandy article link from BIC for your anti-aging reading list: Gut microbiome and aging: Physiological and mechanistic insights – PMC (nih.gov)
Need more items for your to-do list? We got a million of ’em.
Write when you get rich…
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