If you’re a new reader, who has perchanced to stumble onto this website, please consider how far you want to read. Because our stock-in-trade here is eyeing the future and trying to assess where the world is going. The Global War, massive earthquakes, second pandemic, Oh! Let’s not leave out the Greater Depression. Like the old philosophical quandary cautions: “If you could know the exact moment and circumstances of your Death, would you really want to know it?”
I’m 76 this month and Elaine’s almost 82. We’re in no hurry to know that part of Future. We’ve seen what Garner Ted – what, 70-years ago? – was calling “The World Tomorrow” and we planned accordingly.
The Future is like that; not everyone wants to know it. And because the Future is unknowable – well, sort of – we are in an area of investigation that involves inference, probabilities, projections and prayers. We watch evolving work in prediction of many types: Religion, linguistic shifts, remote viewing, religious sources, plus a bit of “out there” mathematics.
So, think about reading further. The people who hang our here are not pessimists – quite the opposite, in fact. But, they do want to KNOW what’s coming next. With our interesting collection of “tools” and RSS/feed scanning implements, our guesses have been pretty good, some times. If you’re still reading, you’re about to dive into the deep end…
QFRA
Quest For Real (Re-Priced Assets)
The stock market is about to fall on its ass today. We’ve seen it coming for a while. Though a little bit slower than what we were seeing a week ago. It’s bad, as a writer and researcher to “quote yourself” but last Monday, I warned you…
“Now, as long at the market rallies (without closing at new lows) then there’s a case for another run slightly higher than the recent highs. BUT, the “grim reaper” in all this is a move powerfully down – and under the 85-Day moving average, would set up a “Women and children to the lifeboats” this spring. Because it would be a second 85-DMA fail and the huge, gaping downsize looms for the Spring. Could be a grim one, especially because at the Fed meeting this week, we not only see no rate drop – which has been the jet fuel for Delirious Class. We see a strong case that the Fed might actually raise rates.”
And yes, exactly as we expected. Sure, sure, this “grappling with the Future” stuff isn’t for everyone. But it’s not bad as hobbies go. Our “play money” account was up 34 percent for the day when checked a few minutes ago.
QFRA means the “Quest For Real Assets.”
What may not be clear to you – YET – is that the world is in-process of repricing all assets. You can see the evidence/data points, but some people won’t be able to generalize in order to extrapolate from there. Let me help.
First, let’s talk about Asset Prices:
- Commercial Real Estate is showing some tiny glints of light. As our Houston Bureau says there are “office lights in the oil patch” again. While this is an obvious response to Trump’s decision not to continue in hock to the Global Banksters, there is still a (northern, industrial cities) problem with office space galore and mall tenants that no one is writing about.
- Bitcoin is (as we have said from the get-go) is a Ponzi Scheme. There’s nothing there. You can’t open a (42 gal. barrel) of hash codes and fry anything,. drive anywhere, or build anything (well, except a story, maybe…) Which explains why it’s down today and was down to $94,000 overnight before bouncing a bit. In QFRA repricing involves an assessment of “What’s the historical record? Does it have calories”
- Gold and Silver are just warming up. Divisible, transportable, long track record, sufficient industrial and fashion demand, so this looks better than praying for a new “anchor tenant” to save the bankrupt malls. Which are falling before the might of Amazon and Wal-Mart and anyone else in the click-and-buy space.
- The Dollar bios getting stronger. Because with tariffs now in effect (to take fentanyl away from Mexico and Canada border jumpers) it is taking fewer dollars to “buy the market”. Strong domestic dollars crater stock indexes. See my 2004 work on differentiating internal versus external effects of monetary purchasing power. The short version is a Strong Dollar reduces costs. Which leads into Depressions, but we have some months before that problem.
If the problem were confined to a single country, it would be easier to understand. But it’s not.
THE big story of the day is Tariffs. But it really shouldn’t come as a surprise given Trump to discuss tariffs with Canadian, Mexican leaders, as Mexico readies ‘Plan B’ response. As our consigliere pointed out over the weekend, there are places where the impact will be difficult. Like the border-spanning the U.S./Canadian auto industry. Where tariffs will be collected before parts, sub-assemblies, and whole vehicles will move…
Death of SynGrow
What Trump is trying to do should be obvious: America has been “Making Up Money” for decades of spendthrift democrats on the Hill. For example, one bleeding financial artery is in all the money pissed into foreign aid. More USAID staff ousted after clash with Musk’s team as Trump dismantles agency.
You will get more perspective on USAID by liatening to Mike Benz lining it out on X with Joe Rogan. Readers regularly report they learn more about the real condition of the world from Rogan than the four corporate media networks and sure, toss in PBS…
Crooked China Research: (Think this was a Biden pick?) .@RandPaul Asks Samantha Power: ‘Did USAID Fund Coronavirus Research In Wuhan China?’ “Should we be funding the Academy of Military Medical Research in China? …Some of the research proposals in 2018 were the Wuhan Insitute of Virology asking for money to create a virus with a https://t.co/SZ53PzWKnq” / X Slimy to watch…Pants on fire?
And the “Oh-so-righteous Lefties” are hang-wringing up a storm today with stories like “CDC Scientists Told To Withdraw New Papers To Cut ‘Forbidden Terms’ What the financially unaware (we’ll let you apply the stupid label) can’t understand is how SynGrow works. Ask one of us Oldsters, though, how many genders there are. We know it’s two. No more, no less. The rest is all bullshit. But for academic creds, we use the label Synthetic Growth. Because even though “gender studies” is an obvious fiction (a synthetic) designed to secure tenure for a butt-load of leftist academics in the corrupt higher Ed world, DEI and ESG dont’ return high enough value to the taxpayers or shareholders.
There are two metrics Trump is driving towards: Equality (real, not the syngrow made-up varieties) and Merit (also called competence, skill, etc.).
The reason – almost a quarter century ago – when Elaine and I moved off our sailboat and “headed for the hills” (via a couple of education and software turnarounds) was that we knew when the Great Repricing began, the SynGrow elements would be stripped away. Of course, a few gender surgeons will survive, gay clubs will still be around. Black Studies will still be a liberal niche in higher Ed. But the marketing on non-critical social issues is toning down. Maybe even going away…
People forget how Product Value is added. Not by hiring DEI consultants. Not by taking from shareholders for ESG. Not by giving away money to Marxist third-world shit-holes, come to think of it, either. The fact is that which POC (and we include White in that) makes your hamburger, doesn’t change my life one way, or the other. “Double extra pickle and with onions” does, however.
Change Troubled Markets
So to keep it brief. First is the general market problem: We had a wave one up, filled a final trading box, we did a (small) 5-wave 1 down, we completed a 2 up around December 12, then we went down, rallied for a minor 2 and we are (likely, we don’t offer advice) in Wave 3 of 3 of macro 1 down.
Peoplenomics readers can use the BrainAmp software (see the Master Index pages) but the simplified view is we’re screwed and about to hit the “widows and orphans to the Lifeboats average (an 85-day moving average of our Aggregate Index work). Observe closely the red average line below. 700-points (or more) down, ought to do it.
This is a pretty simple “line chart” (but with enough “salt” to make it a “derivative work”). But it is not as informative as our Ebbinghaus-Ure Correlation work which uses a nested series of moving averages to derive a “surface” from the raw numeric:
Not to mash this in too much, but see the 1 down trading box? 34 percent gains (before the open) today, argues we are now into the 3rd wave down trading box. And that could be a puker. We could be in misery for a couple of months, rally, and then re-implode (if that’s a word…) in the Fall.
Again, not financial advice. Just a “useful idiot’s view.”
Oh – hold up on property buying until we figure which way it works out (inflationary or deflationary): We are at the top of a bubble which could be bursting. So unless you’re working tax auctions, or some-such bottom fishing operation, might want to hold out on buying more land and focus instead on positive cashflows…prices for everything could be a lot lower next year.
It’s what Great Re-Pricings do, ain’t it?
Phraeseology du Jour
“Wrecking ball.” As in:
Stick around, the Great Re-Pricing is here. And the Developer-in-Chief is “demising the property to make room for growth.” Bye-bye DEI and can we now evolve an “engineering class” as China has?
In other words, DEI doesn’t help the trade picture. A new plant, more infrastructure updates? Well, yes, then. You know what a “case study” is, right? The Destruction Of The South African Air Force By DEI.
Which gets us to the discussion of how the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act impacted in the Great Depression, but we’ll save that for the Peoplenomics side of the house.
But do ion the meantime watch the Martin Armstrong video here: “It’s too late…”
Crash and Burn is game on, huh?
Above the Fold
(But under on our site…)
Bipolar Europe is worrying us: Germany Commits Cultural Suicide, Votes AGAINST Stopping Illegal Immigration.
Trump’s pulpit: “South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY. It is a bad situation that the Radical Left Media doesn’t want to so much as mention. A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won’t stand for it, we will act. Also, I will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed!”
At the southern border: The Trump administration has officially DEPUTIZED the Texas National Guard, giving them immigration enforcement and arrest power, per @AliBradleyTV This adds another 4,000+ personnel protecting our borders. THANK YOU 47 and @GregAbbott_TX!
Yellow Journalism? Naw, just clickbait: Watch: Kanye West Walks With Nude Wife Bianca Censori on Grammys Red Carpet. News? Um…
Democrats have a new gun-grabbing chair: Good News! Democratic Party at Extinction Level.
And to help you sleep better at night: Iran ‘secretly building nuclear missiles that can hit Europe’.
At the Ranch: Spring Shop Cleaning
Yeah, well, that’s about a whole story in a headline, ain’t it?
OK, lets get those dice out and play a few rounds of Yahtzee or Shut the Box while we wait for the wheels to come off this thing?
Write when you survive,
George@Ure.net
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