The Preview of the Week seems like a good starting point (as always) on Monday.
See, there’s a trick to living (relatively) stress-free: Make a list of all the crap you need/should get done. then just work through it in an orderly basis.
I’ll get to my list for the week in a minute (no one cares, except me and Elaine). The “Big Picture” stuff will help clarify the list-ordering anyway.
- Today: Markets are in the red, gold and silver were showing signs of life, and energy-wasting coins were trading $104,400. So the set-up for today is – remembering this is “jobs week” the Fed boss will be speaking, and Wednesday is a BSD (bank settlement day)…
- May’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing data will give us some darts in the direction of manufacturing health amid ongoing tariff debates. (We will look for “trade drift” from the Drifter-in-Chief as the day wears on.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell comments could sway markets if he hints at future interest rate decisions or addresses inflation concerns. We think inflation is still running high enough that no Fed rate decrease seems likely on the 18th, but it will be wrapped in candy so as not to spark questions of the dominant (crazy) paradigm.
- The aftermath of Russia’s large-scale drone and missile attack on Kharkiv and Ukraine’s escalation strikes on Russian air bases shortens the fuse on WW III . Today, it’s “Cue the Actors!” as Russia, Ukraine meet in Istanbul for second round of direct peace talks. Your odds of winning the PowerBall are probably higher. Don’t know as you’ve noticed, but peace is a poor investment.
Is this fun or what? Let’s do Tuesday, right?
- Tomorrow expect to be JOLTed. The Labor Department’s Job Openings, Layoffs, Terminations, and Separations report is the lead-off to this being Jobs Week. Light on the hiring side and a bump in layoffs might a cooling economy, Plan on hype out of the “Peace Talks” in Istanbul. But, we’re thinking timing would be right for Russia to stage a high-profile walk-out.
- Corporate earnings begin to dribble from outfits like Hewlett Packard Enterprise and CrowdStrike Holdings. Disappointment in Techs could resolve the laggard status of techs which haven’t been nipping at the punch bowl as much as “safe” investments in things like the Death Industries.
- If you’re addicted to Cyclops 85 (your big screen), understand that we are making it a point to miss the premiere of new HBO Max shows like BBQ Brawl Season 6. Speaking of which $105 Million Reparations Package for Tulsa Race Massacre Unveiled by Mayor. Side bets on whether unequal spending on racial grounds is OK?
Wednesday is Bank Settlement Day. To put this into perspective, the market is about here heading into the opening:
As we have said many times, it doesn’t look like anything other than a “normal” Wave 2 bounce after a major 1 down. But, we could move sideways for a while – August maybe? – before the bottom really falls out.
- At pre-open pricing today, our Aggregate Index was showing 49,989.57. Two weeks ago, BSD closed at 49,721.79. And two weeks before that? 50,233.30. And two weeks before even that?We were hanging 47,590.55. Not saying we HAVE done the peak of Wave 2 and all hell to the downside is likely. But, we can’t rule it out – depending on news flows and “peace talks” this week.
- ADP and ISM Services will roll Wednesday. Pat attention particularly in the services sector. Strong data could bolster confidence that the consumer is still alive. Flip side? Weak figures will reignite recession fears.
- Think we will make it to the Wednesday close without the Drifter-in-Chief doesn’t some unp[predictable shit? Yeah, well, good luck on that. “Steady on the helm” is a bizarre and foreign concept, anymore. We do have to offer the NY Times kudos for the headline “As Courts Call Tariffs Into Question, Trump Again Turns to His Favorite Tool.” (Being tacky, we’d ask for a Melania quote on topic, but that would be wholly inappropriate…) Here all this time, I thought “ShopTalk Sunday” was tacky with all our talk about being tool sluts...ahem…
Thursday will be “mop-up” day for economic writers. The Powell speaking deal today, the JOLTS report, and Mr. Waffle will all be on the table for the week. Our only advice to “normies”?
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On the cultural front, spoilers for The Bold and the Beautiful hint at major revelations and revenge plots, which could spark social media buzz among soap opera fans. As if the financial world isn’t soapy enough?
Friday the Jobs Report drops. Meh.
Ure’s Hot Pick
My money is on an “out of the blue” big earthquake, this week or next. Because of the Severe geomagnetic storm hits Earth, brings auroras and possible tech disruptions.
Two Pet Theories around here:
- The first is that Einstein’s E=MC2 formula seems likely to be “bi-directional.” In other words, just like, oh, your car battery is an example of electro chemical bidirectionality, so too, it seems rational to expect that outbursts from the Sun can “condense energy into matter” on Earth. In other words, the same formula that accounts for how nuclear weapons work, could also explain why condensation from a zillions of suns in the universe keep creating more matter. PROBLEM? When the Sun does an Energy Dump on Earth, new matter is condensed and that leads to Earthquakes. So we will pay special attention to Earthquake Tireds report toward the end of the week (condensation takes time) and a major quake toward the weekend or the week after seems like a reasonable (though highly-speculative) bet.
- Second theory is too much energy from the Sun, or disruption of the magnetosphere makes people (generally) bat-shit crazy. Today’s evidence pile? US: 8 injured in ‘targeted act of violence’ against protest calling for return of Israeli captiives. And let’s not overlook Suspect in custody after 11 stabbed at Oregon homeless services provider. (Though people in Oregon are borderline, anyway…)
Mentionable
Not sure where to slide a few pieces around the puzzle board today.
For example, while Trump, Xi to talk this week about trade, key advisor says, we don’t know which day.
And the global return (swinging of the pendulum to midpoint) continues as Poland election: Conservative historian Nawrocki wins presidential vote. Which would be like a Newt Gingrich win here…
And historical revision is still alive and well as FDA chief wary of federal recommendations for Covid-19 vaccines. Wait, didn’t the FDA tell us we all had to run out and roll up our sleeves? My memory must be going…
Around the Ranch: Antenna Follies
I got one of the new (but not scalar) ham radio antennas up Sunday. This one runs north-south and it’s an off-center-fed dipole (OCFD). Works just great.
Most hams don’t understand that when operating on harmonic frequencies, the dipole antenna radiates off its ends.
Interestingly, we ended up using the air-powered antenna launcher after having issues landing the drones in some of the thicker brush on the property.
This morning (kid with a new Christmas present, right?) got up and hit the 80-meter band and just dead as a doornail. I remembered the geo storm Sunday, but bands haven’t been this crappy in a good long while.
Which is why I’m thinking “big earthquake(s) ahead.” May be delusion on my part, but seen it happen often enough that it’s also a pattern now.
Tomorrow, or the next day, my next load of solar panels will be showing up. Anxious to get them in. That will give us almost 8 kW of source (we’re a little over 5 kW now). And just in time for the high temps of summer…
Have to weld up an 8-foot extension of the mounting rack because the new panels are bigger/wider than the old ones – but that’s OK. Gives me a chance to take a few pictures for STS…
OK, busy one…
Write when you get rich (or the bands come back to normal so I can test/compare the new antenna)…
George@Ure.net ac7x
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