Three “lead items” on the list today: Which we will cover in turn:
Personal Income
Hmm…
Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $79.7 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $133.6 billion (0.7 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $129.5 billion in December. Personal saving was $843.2 billion in December and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.8 percent
Black lines matter (?)
Employment Cost Index
“Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.9 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from September 2024.”
This all comes on the heels of the GDP report Thursday: US GDP growth slows in Q4, but economy still ‘remains strong’. But they do count it in dollars, so, there is that…
Michelle Bowman remarks
I know, why put a Fed Head up near the top of the “thinking pile?” Well, the answer is clear: She’s been as good (and usually far better) than her regional Fed boss colleagues. Really one of those “When she talks, we listen…”
“At our FOMC meeting this week, my colleagues and I voted to hold the federal funds rate target range at 4-1/4 to 4?1/2 percent and to continue to reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings. I supported this action because, after recalibrating the level of the policy rate towards the end of last year to reflect the progress made since 2023 on lowering inflation and cooling the labor market, I think that policy is now in a good place to position the Committee to pay closer attention to the inflation data as it evolves.”
Another decent pop at the open is expected in markets. But with tariffs this weekend…
Bounce to the Ounce
The market ought to be finishing up it’s Wave 3, minor 2 rally today:
As you can see, we have a ways to go before a new “all-time high” and if one doesn’t show up? Well, things could get dicey in a few weeks.
Bitcoin is still laboring in the $105,000 area – and MIGHT be trying to finish off a similar wave count to the equities side.
Not that it matters for most Americans. For us, the name of the game now is “living inside the personal cash flow limits” no matter how much the Personal Income report tries to make it seem like it’s higher than it is. When you’re young, a little “living above cash flow” makes sense (with the odds on your side). You need to buy an education or get a working trade (read: meal ticket) punched. And the first home purchase should be the last major debt pit. After that, transitioning to net positive cash flow every month is the only thing that makes sense. Unless you figure a way to beat Chinese A.I. programmers…
On the meal ticket side:“According to the latest updates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the projected employment growth from 2023 to 2033 is expected to be 4.0%, with a total of 6.7 million new jobs added, primarily driven by the healthcare and social assistance sector, along with professional, scientific, and technical services; the retail trade sector is projected to see job losses during this period.”
Always (if you can) lay down in the street where the money can run over you!
Understanding Inflation is the Key to Wealth
We’re Big Fans of well-paced inflation. Because of where we are (global competition between econo0mci systems) any slowdown in inflation means bankruptcy for a lot of countries. In fact, that’s a big chunk of why the PGM group is higher: Silver’s almost to the $33 handle and gold’s flirting with $2,850 and we think going north of $3,000 in short order.
As we have explained (for years), there’s an internal and external aspect to inflation, that many people miss. Ceteris paribus (all things equal) if the Internal price of domestic goods is going up, the price (to foreigners) is going down. If there is inflation in China their external prices (paid by us) tend down.
So this international money valuation game is Big Business, especially this weekend as Trump rolls with big tariffs: Trump Slaps 25% Tariff on Mexico and Canada, Eyes China Next.
One factor in stocks holding up this week (after the DeepSeek news) is that if the U.S. demand drops (due to higher external prices – the net effect of tariffs), then countries elsewhere will have lower exports and you can see how that ripples. What’s going now, is BRICS is trying to come up with a path to Dollar replacement as the international settlement currency. Which drives headlines like Donald Trump Warns BRICS Over Dollar Move: ‘Go Find Another Sucker Nation’. No sign of peace on this front, either as BREAKING: Trump Goes To War For USD, Threatens 100% Tariffs On BRICS Nations. Payback’s a what? (bee…..)
Greenland acquisition makes sense, too: If the US has more money coming in (tariffs, effectively a sales tax on imported goods only), we could begin to eat-back that horrible National Debt problem. And back to our cash flow discussion, what did economist Henry George remind us? The Land is the base.
Trump, ever the Developer mindset, looks at Greenland like a “rental property” with a non-paying tenant. The place has almost no GDP.
“According to available data, Greenland’s non-government GDP, which refers to the economic output generated by private businesses and individuals excluding government activities, is estimated to be around $2.7 billion USD in 2021, representing a significant portion of the country’s total GDP of $3.24 billion USD. “
OK, let’s compare that GDP with, oh, Texas for example: As of 2023, Texas’s gross domestic product (GDP) was $2.694 trillion dollars. So Greenland is what, a little over 1/10th of one percent of Texas?
We’re pretty sure the scale of how small Greenland is hard to take. in. So let’s compare it with a smaller state (in GDP terms). How about Wyoming: in 2023 was their GDP was $40.2 billion. So 2 point 64 into that and it takes more than twelve Wyoming to create the GDP of Greenland. Which would be closer to zero without our massive defense spending there…
Circling around back to inflation (and how the international valuations are such a hosed-up game) Euro Set for Deeper Decline as Market Sees More ECB Rate Cuts. Some of which may be forced by the US getting back into (real) energy independence (not “No barbecuing and sit in the dark when the solar’s off” Biden plan). Trump’s point man for drilling agenda confirmed by Senate.
Trump’s plan looks to us like a guy who owns a Bank – and decides to rob it for himself instead of funding the international cartel of lazy Marxists…
Oh, speaking of the CCP: China-linked influence operation tried to overthrow Spain’s government, report says, That’s some chess board, huh?
Rippin Down Wires
STILL can’t believe COVID was a planned-demic? Moderna CEO Admits Covid ‘Vaccines’ Were Developed ‘in 2019’ Because He Knew ‘Pandemic’ Was Coming.
Grilling on the Hill: Trump’s FBI chief pick, Kash Patel, insists he has no ‘enemies list’ and won’t seek retribution. We would really like to see Patel call out the lefties who are asking those “Have you stopped beating your wife yet?” kinds of questions. The dems persist with their conspiracy theories. Reminding us the “Way to tell a conspiracy theory” on the Left is where you read it. If it’s in the New York Times or the Washington Post….. But, if it’s in the free press, on the web, it may be true, but you could have to wait a while for it all to come out… Won’t happen with the left-controlled media.
Digging deeper Massive J6 Bombshell: Kash Patel Just Told The World That Democrats Pelosi, Schumer and DC Mayor Bowser All Refused 20K National Guard Troops Mobilized By Trump Days Before The Capitol Riot. Which somehow didn’dt make the Thursday crawlers we had up…Trump FBI Pick Kash Patel Made More Than $2.6 Million Last Year. Is that news? Really? Guy’s got to eat…
On the side burner: Alex Marlow: Tulsi Gabbard Is a Threat to the War Machine Because She Wants a Safer and More Peaceful World. Democrats remain, as we have told you, the War Party.
Are we being too tough on the Fools on the Hill? Democrat’s strategy during confirmation hearings: Ask a question. Immediately interrupt by yelling. Ask another question. Immediately interrupt again. Accuse the nominee of evading questions.
And what’s this? Alex is back? Thursday War Room Live! Highlights from Kash Patel and Tulsi Gabbard Hearing As President Trump Addresses Nation on Plane Crash. Might not be totally wrong…
Covering for Biden?
The plane-helicopter crash this week has been a PR disaster for the ex-prez, Joe. You can tell when the NYT turns tragedy into Fact-Checking Trump’s D.C. Plane Crash News Conference and Remarks on D.E.I.. Early hints suggest the tower failed to communicate aircraft actions correctly: US Army Black Hawk reportedly failed to respond to warnings before DC crash, and who was running (including training) of the Tower folks) until two weeks ago? Yep, that party.
Oh, this was interesting, too: Treasury Official to Exit After Rift with Elon Musk.
On the Wires
Here come the claims: FAIR Plan gets 4,400 insurance claims from LA County wildfire victims. Go ahead and get back to us when the checks are cut and people are happily back in their homes. We are half-expecting mudslide stories next week as Sound The Alarms: California Braces for 100 Inches of Snow.
Personality Problems? We noticed the story Palestine hails Egyptian president’s rejection to displace Gazans. No doubt, countries like Egypt can look at how they were peace-loving, non-violent, well-integrated members of the community in Israel and made a judgment call. This will play well with Egyptians (who don’t like ’em) and it will have the look of moral high-grounding…so sure, roll out the “victim banner” for the NE liberal media to pander…
Still Waiting? Long Awaited JFK Files Could Be Released Soon. (Strums fingers, rolls eyes./ Wonder “Must be really bad shit if it’s taken how…“)
At the Ranch: New Toy Day
I’ve had a hell of a time finding a cheap, 4-cycle leaf blower. So I splurged on one of these and it should land today. Elaine hates noise, I hate yard waste. In fact today I will be out with the mini-electric chain saw walking the yard and filling the wagon with wood stove feed. Another category change to electric – mini chain saws…
More and more, I keep moving toward electrics for all but the biggest outdoor work projects. Mixing two-cycle fuel isn’t making as much sense, as once upon a time.
Been doing a lot of “personal self-discovery” this week (more in ShopTalk Sunday this weekend). But it seems there’s two ways to live life. One is absolute (Bear Grylls) minimalism. Give me a knife and I’ll show uyyou the world, kinda thing.
The other is line up a power tool for every occasion… Even in the kitchen going from the big stove to the microwave, to the steam oven, to the air fryer… Mighty choice choices…
{Time line shift noted? Am I the only one who thought it was Bo Grylls? Or, is this a Mandela Effect marker?)
Daylight savings time is 37-days away…but that wouldn’t…er…uh…
Last but not least: The perfect gift for our retired broadcast engineer Hank out on the Big Island: Broadcast Digital UHF TV Transmitter 3000 Watts (Channel 39) | eBay
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
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