A “Trump Bump” for Easter? The dealer’s hand will show in the next day, or two but in the early posting today, it was definitely on the menu as a choice.
Still, we have data today to work through – and part 2 of this morning – the Housing data – will be here about 8:15 Central. Be sure to check back.
For now?
High Spots Matter
The Dow and other markets drove our pre-opening Peoplenomics Aggregate Index to its best session since last Thursday. Although you will have to squint to pick out today’s turn in this view, it’s a start.
This is also a logical place for a turn up in our state variance extremes work – where we just had another “13” reading in our “magic ovals” work. Which has been useful in past moderate declines as a soft turning weight.
Similarly, BTC is heading up along with the price of gold and silver. BTC is still $4,000 below last Thursday, while silver has crawled back to the $75 range.
Where we really take heart is Europe and already, the UK was up another nearly one percent. That’s often a leading indicator, too.
For now, short of nukes flying, it looks like we are setting up for an Easter rally, but the truth of the tape will be seeing “what is risen” a week from now.
In the meanwhile, be sure to pop over to the Labor Department at 10 AM for the Job Openings, Layoffs, Terminations, and Separations (JOLTS) report. That may give us some insight into tomorrow’s ADP jobs report.
The Clicks and the Sticks
Yeah, we gotta talk about the war, now. On the clicks side of things, the generally orange-skeptical reports roll toward a slowdown in showdown: 12 times Trump signaled the Iran war was about to end.
But the reality is more on the stick side as U.S. Hits Isfahan With Bunker Buster Bombs. Meanwhile, Seizing Iran’s Kharg Island would be a risk, experts say | AP News/.
And one thing of note out of Israel to be aware of: Israel Passes Law to Hang Palestinians Convicted of Deadly Attacks – The New York Times. Which makes it a point to claim the law makes it unlikely to apply to Jewish settlers in contested lands.
The Dysfunctional Homeland
If a fish rots from its head, there are a couple of stories to ponder: DeSantis signs bill renaming PBI Donald J. Trump International Airport, effective July 1. And if that’s not a large enough ego on a roll, try Trump unveils renderings of planned presidential library tower. Two gold statues of himself? A little much, in our back woodsy view.
If you have a few bucks in the cookie jar, California is up for bid. Google’s Sergey Brin backs rival candidates in race to succeed California Gov. Gavin Newsom
My buddy (the Major) – just back from recent travel – makes the observation that most of the airport calamity latest seems to have been – focused on red state airports. “It’s how the embedded unelected layer is still running their agenda,” he surmised. In today’s headlines, this seemed to fit his hypothesis: The DHS shutdown might never end – POLITICO.
Still, there’s a glimmer of hope that Equality and Equal Rights may persist: How Trump’s EEOC is attacking DEI and emphasizing white people. Believe it when you see it, not just a dog whistle from liberal media.
Around the Ranch: Easter Eats
I have a pet theory from half a century (and then some) of studying dining table economics.
You can get a really good idea of how a nation is doing by looking over how well its citizens are fed. What do they have to eat? Is it mouth-watering good or barely scraping by?
You take North Korea, for example: Land of hard times and famine. Bent more on taking over the South (and building missiles to reach the USA) than putting great groceries on the table. In their defense, I suppose, America has been at the other extreme: Too much white bread, sugar, and stick-to-the-arteries food. So much so that Big Pharma’s growth darlings have been GLP_whatever and Ozem-something.
Wait – did I drift out? Easter is a time in America when the feed bag goes on with style (and dessert).
Broken Bread
My opinion of governments is defined by how prosperous their people are. Russian dominance of (eastern) Ukraine, for example, during Soviet collectivization was horrific. Which colors my opinion of Russia ever since.
China, on the other hand, seems to be on a track to use such Stalinesque management as a stepping stone to a democratic hybrid. As the West has gotten more socialist, the Chinese (and the Russians) had become a bit more people-oriented. That had been, until Iran hostilities (and Ukraine) a general drift that was hopeful. But I digress.
Back to Chow
I do the grocery shopping – online. And this Easter is not speaking especially well of America going through the local hunger game. For example, I was underwhelmed by the prime rib selection this year. Out of five local stores, only one has a suitable roast. Barely. It wasn’t even called “prime” – just a “rib roast.” And $16.99 a pound, at that. Figure 25 percent of weight is bones. Filets were no more pricey.
Normally – back in the day – we’d find a 5.5-7 pound prime rib ($75-ish) and that would be the meat extravaganza for a while. Now, the “roasts” are going out at the door at 3 1/2 pounds average. So light you can’t shop on a windy day.
We also noticed the appearance from something called “Dino ribs.” But, lacking a dynamometer in the kitchen, we let that slide. The price of beef seems to be trying to keep up with gasoline’s skyward move.
My consigliere (if he got up this easy, though lawyers tend not to) would mention hams tend to go on sale a few days after Easter, so plan to stock up. They freeze for six months, or so.
For now? What was once an annual cooking highlight has been slimmed back to fit more modern times. Our beef consumption is down to 3-4 days a week from nightly steaks on the barbie. And odds-makers are putting even money on a shrimp pizza this Sunday with extra mutz and sauce.
Ever mindful of tradition, we’ll be correct about it: A self-rising crust.
I’m not ribbing.
Write when you get rich,
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