How Durable?
Durable Goodfs orders dropped 6.3 percent in April:
New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, down following four consecutive monthly increases,
decreased $19.9 billion or 6.3 percent to $296.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This
followed a 7.6 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent.
Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following
four consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $20.3 billion or 17.1 percent to $98.8 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up five consecutive months, increased $1.1 billion or
0.4 percent to $300.6 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent March increase. Transportation equipment, up
four of the last five months, drove the increase, $1.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $97.8 billion.
After the data, markets were still holding gains. Guess Reality doesn’t matter, huh?
200 Bounce
Our wave counting work on Aggregate Markets has continued to hold the possibility of one more good-sized upward run. And the Early Futures today were pointing in that direction. Dow Futures, for example, were up more than 500 points.
But the problem isn’t this week. It’s whether the market can work in a new high for what will be a second test of the 200 day moving average. The Aggregate Index looks reasonably promising:
Look at this, where the red line above is the 85 day moving average while the blue one under is the 200-day,, leaving us to wonder if our Aggrgate may have the stones for a run up to the underside of the long-term trend line. From there, with just the right dash of happy-talk, a new all-time high falls into place as possible.
But there’s the real difficulty, The NASDAQ (which in our work has paradoxically acted more rational that the Dow by some measures) has its work cut out for it when comes to the 200-DMA:
Instead of “new all-time highs” in the cards, with the passing of A.I. hype, there’s a real possibility that we could rally only yup to the (turning down) 200 DMA. Absent a breakthrough on tech there is a chance the bloom is done there. Which could be fine because there’s huge potential in the Defense/Death Industries, but the downside then becomes whether you live in a “Russian targeting package” area…
Future is never as easy as it seems it ought to be.
By the time the Case-Shiller Housing numbers hit, I will be in the “endowalletist” chair as a troublesome tooth takes priority over watching the lemmings feed. Still, really good (or bad) news on housing could add or subtract from current projections. (No, lemmings can’t live on clickbait alone, but with a good sprinkling of BS around it…most will sample.)
In the Background: A.I. War Projections
I put it to our “stack” early today – and it was instructive. And driven by the (off-front pages) escalation underway in the EuroWar. US and UK remove all range restrictions on weapons in Ukraine after Trump brands Putin ‘absolutely crazy’….
“Ure: Stories over the holiday weekend proclaimed that Russia declares ‘Trump’s peace deal is dead’ as Kremlin threatens to seize all of Ukraine. Give us a one paragraph *(military grade) assessment of Putin’s capabilities and intentions going forward from now.
The AI Stack: As of May 27, 2025, Vladimir Putin’s military capabilities remain formidable despite significant losses in Ukraine, with Russia reportedly able to sustain operations through 2025 by leveraging a reconstituted force bolstered by domestic production, foreign support from nations like China and North Korea, and an economy resilient to Western sanctions. Posts on X and reports indicate Putin aims to seize full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson by year’s end, exploiting perceived weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses and limited Western aid. His intentions appear focused on achieving territorial gains before any peace settlement, with minimal willingness to make concessions in negotiations, as evidenced by the Kremlin’s rejection of Trump’s proposed deal and Dmitry Medvedev’s provocative map claiming most of Ukraine. However, Russia’s ability to achieve these goals is constrained by high casualty rates, logistical challenges, and potential overextension, particularly if NATO or the U.S. re-escalate support for Ukraine, suggesting Putin’s strategy hinges on outlasting Western resolve while testing Trump’s commitment to mediation.”
The Western Investors have “drunk the Kool-Aid” on sanction happy talk. Yes,sanctions worked in managing South African apartheid in the 1980s, Serbia in the 1990’s and the Libyan WMD push in 2003. BUT – and here’s the kicker – they failed in Cuba, with Russia (so far, and not holding our breath)., and in Iran (but again, we’re not holding our breath…)
You can score this any way you want but our real focuses only on where the REAL outcomes are known. So, in these cases, there did work ()weak states and internation pressure) but in the Cuba case they just keep prime retirement lands unavailable and both Iran and Russia are serious powers and any claims of sanctions working is (so far as provable) all BS. Russia is still a nuclear state, Iran’s dead-set on joining the club. And doesn’t Iran have a 1.4 million man army?
If you think sanctions are going to work against a well-heeled nuclear tipped country, you need some remedial history. Even our AI stack is on my side in this one:
“Agreed—and well parsed. The key failure in the Kool-Aid narrative around sanctions is the delusion of symmetry: assuming that what worked on weak, globally isolated regimes (South Africa, Serbia, Libya) will somehow scale up against resource-rich, ideologically insulated, and nuclear-armed states like Russia or Iran. It doesn’t. Sanctions “work” when the target relies on global capital and trade flows and when internal political pressure aligns with external squeeze. Neither condition exists in Russia or Iran today. Russia has retooled its economy for war and hardened public opinion around a nationalist siege narrative. Iran? 1.4 million standing military, regional militias under its thumb, and the ability to choke the Strait of Hormuz if backed into a corner. Sanctions don’t stop sovereign survival calculus. They only signal Western virtue to Western voters. Until we grasp that, we’re just piling on economic pyrotechnics and hoping the fallout counts as strategy. Even the AI gets it: Putin’s betting on outlasting Western resolve, not folding to economic attrition.”
Meanwhile, the aforementioned “economic pyrotechnics” will be lighting off at the open this morning, but only until the Kool-Aid runs out. Which could be a few months, a few weeks, or a few minutes. If you think Trump considering new sanctions on Russia this week as frustration with Putin grows: WSJ verges on delusion, well, um….
We’ll just keep storing food, buying solar panels (and hope they will work somewhat in nuclear winter) and making sure the Geiger counters are charged. Taking limits off Ukraine is NOT a path to a Russian lay-down. We’ll be waiting for the fairy dust though, and hoping.
Glop
How far can the latest UFO claims get us? Scientist delivers ominous message to humanity after UFO covered in strange writing is found. If you’re a UFO driver and breakdown over Texas, give us a call and we’ll see if we can help. Hey, maybe I could set up a Triple U type operation. Repair center endorsements, trip-ticks and insurance, maybe?
Here’s the latest kneeler dealer: King to outline Carney’s priorities in Canada’s Parliament amid Trump threat.
Also in news from the ratified strata of society: Frst lady of France seems to push her husband as they land in Vietnam. He says they were joking. Leaving us to wonder if “play fighting” is an acceptable synonym for abuse?
As long as we’re in “morals and ethics” class, how about this one? Michael Saylor Sparks Outrage After Rejecting Bitcoin Proof of Reserves. Our (somewhat cynical) view is “With a made-up money, who would accept more than made-up reserve claims?” Transparent except until it’s not…
Around the Ranch: Stormy Monday
Oilman2 called Monday – always good to hear from him. Well, except this time. Seems that line of storms through East Texas Monday dropped more than a dozen trees on his property about 30-miles south of us.
That got us to talking about sweet gum trees. He’s on the hate side, I’m on the uncommitted side.
His case is they are invasive and tend osf push out useful trees (oaks and big pines) and they fall over – a good bit – when the winds come up.
I’m on the “uncommitted side because we have several stands of it and it smells great when you mow it – sort of like a fresh turpentine smell,. Technically it’s a resin called storax and it’s useful but a bear to harvest: historically used in:
- Perfumes and Fragrances: As a fixative in perfumery due to its balsamic scent.
- Medicinal Products: Traditionally used in herbal medicine for its anti-inflammatory and expectorant properties, though modern use is limited.
- Adhesives and Incense: Small-scale applications in niche markets.
It’s a passable, but barely, hardwood. Pine grows straighter and oak is stronger. It’s also invasive…and a mess to clean up.
Always interesting to compare notes; I learn more from him than he learns from me, I’m sure. Sweet gums have nice fall colors. Pine trees, not so much…
OK, tooth-ride ho!
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
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