The early futures today were…what’s the word? Confused about where to head next.
Seasonality: One possibility is that the rally will be back from break in a minute and will stampede higher toward Labor Day – a traditional “late summer high” pattern.
Fundamentals: Somewhat stable, which could telegraph sideways for a while. This morning, the NFIB Small Biz confidence report was stable.
” The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remained steady in June, edging down 0.2 of a point to 98.6, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. A substantial increase in respondents reporting excess inventories contributed the most to the decline in the index. The Uncertainty Index decreased by five points from May to 89. Nineteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up one point from May and ranking as the top problem again. The last time taxes reached 19 percent was in July 2021. “
Questions Grow, however: Trump tariff tirades aside, there’s a growing sense of dis-ease despite this being Prime Day over at Amazon. Trump announces new tariffs of up to 40% on a growing number of countries, begins one take on it.
Dealer-Door Markets, and the Gunslingers Who Limp In: Everyone’s got a voice in this, be here’s one view to check: Trump undermines his own South Korea deal with new 25 percent tariffs. Is this the gunfighter shooting his foot?
Our Bet? We’re a week out from a Fed decision on rates. In-house, we’re leaning into having coffee and relaxing for a while. No point running to the guillotine, if you follow. A Fed Minutes report tomorrow may help clarify. And certainly market action, tariffs, and random world events will come into play.
It’s like a crooked poker game in here: Be packing, ready to bolt, and keep your eyes moving: dealer-door, dealer- door…
Pieces Moving on the Board
The bad historical rhymes over Gaza continue to build. The genuine cynic might see a rhyme with Chamberlain appeasement, as Netanyahu nominates Trump for Nobel Peace Prize as the two meet at White House.
If you listen closely, though, a rhyme on the dangers of “getting on the trains” looms in the distance as Netanyahu and Trump on the ‘free choice’ relocation of Palestinians: ‘We’re getting close to finding several countries’. Meanwhile there’s some Israeli drift into southern Brazil, and still rumors of a Polish resettlement LZ should Arab states attack Israel this fall.
Meanwhile, on another war front, our consigliere’s “Battle of Britain” (…as in: out of planes, fuel, and time) is also on the White House agenda: US to send more weapons to Ukraine: Trump.
Internal Problems: Media reports out of the Southland Monday were tossing gasoline on already inflamed feelings about illegal immigration. Bystanders confront federal immigration agents as they descend on MacArthur Park in Westlake area of Los Angeles. Not a big thing (though the hysteria of some media shills is apparent – depending on your taste in sites – but still an indicator that stories like Exclusive: Operation Excalibur in Los Angeles Was Show of Force will be around for months to come.
OMFB: (Old man flash-back): Remember Richard Harris on McArthur Park? My, how the world’s changed.
Speaking of rain – 104 dead is the box score from Texas floods now.
Conspiracy Theory Showdown
Can she survive? Will this be a “You can’t handle the Truth” moment, or what? Bondi under scrutiny after DOJ memo contradicts Epstein client list claims. Seems to me no matter where it goes from here, no one will believe the claims.
Meanwhile, brace yourself for Insurrection 2.0 – the After-Musk: Insurrection 2.0: Bureaucrats Launch a Color Revolution. Inside a country where the military is held in check but not the bureaucrats. All of which is dandy foreplay ahead of our “Fall of City-States” Peoplenomics focus tomorrow. Related: Kevin O’Leary slams NYC mayoral candidate Mamdani’s economic policies.
Gee. Maybe the Insurrection 2.0 people could recruit teachers, huh? Corey DeAngelis SPILLS THE BEANS on the National Education Association’s Radical New ‘Resolutions’ – Twitchy.
SciTech Summary
Think you had a ‘tough Monday’? Pause to consider how Elon Musk’s day went. On the announcement that he was forming a new political party, I’m sure you heard about the big dump on Tesla share prices. But what about the impact on his net worth? Elon Musk Loses $15 Billion in Net Worth After Tesla Stock Sinks. Hmm. Where have we heard this before… Anyone still riding the ESG pony just got thrown, too…
Somewhere, though, things are looking up. (Like at the observatories, for instance…) Get Ready for the 2025 Buck Moon — The Farthest Full Moon from the Sun and the First of the Summer. We debated even mentioning this, since you might not give a buck…
Popularity contest results: Windows 11 is finally more popular than Windows 10. Which means, now that the product is usable and stable, it must mean a Windows 12 is prepping for rollout. Pinging the AI stack:
“Speculation about Windows 12 has been fueled by rumors and leaks, with some sources initially suggesting a possible release in 2024 or 2025, aligning with Microsoft’s reported return to a three-year release cycle. However, Microsoft’s confirmation of Windows 11 version 25H2 and its statement at CES 2025, proclaiming it the “year of the Windows 11 PC refresh,” suggest that Windows 12 is unlikely to arrive before 2026 at the earliest. Some reports indicate a potential delay, with estimates pointing to 2027 based on the six-year gap between Windows 10 and Windows 11.”
With Microsoft already [*allegedly] adding friction to its browser product to force the IQ100 class into CoPilot, we figure the Win-12 future release will depend on how much AI the company tries to shovel in. Which then begs the question about USGovt and .mil sales. How’s the OS going to work if the grid goes down, um? Fallback to numeric DNS addy’s?
[* this doesn’t happen to us using non-MSFT browsers… 
Purely coincidence, we’re so sure… But, hey! We all know the solution to friction is an adult lubricant, right?]
Around the Ranch: Joys of Social
Years back, we made a moral and ethical decision NOT to get deep into social media.
Because, as explained in a Peoplenomics report, it was a crooked deal – tricking regular people into generating free content which the owners of the social media harvesting operations would then use to fatten their own purses.
If you ever doubted our ability to “tell it like it is” have a gander at the graphic in How Much Revenue Do Tech Giants Earn Per Employee?
People who generate all kinds of digital effort (without getting paid for it) are – in our view – either narcissists, fools, ego maniacs, or people who haven’t assessed or exercised their own power to manage the world around them.
As we have stated from the digital get-go, unless you’ve got your own revenue angle (selling on eBay, for example) a lot of social isn’t worth your time.
The whole scam of social reached a new height of stupidity recently when a certain ‘book set me an email thinking it would entice me to click by saying “So-and-so just commented on a post you haven’t seen yet…”
Nor will I, nor should you. If I really gave a shit about what someone thinks of something, I’d use a different tool.
It’s called a phone.
Write when you get rich,
Read the full article here
