The Early Futures today were looking grim. No surprise to that.
The weekend news flow was dominated by:
A special note here: We have long-held that public figures (HWood types) should STFU and not engage is shallow, personal marketing on the occasion of a President’s death. Scroll around X today and you’ll find hand-wringers galore, hoping to rub some of Carter’s fame off on their unworthy selves. The exception is rest of the Oval team: Trump and Ex-Presidents Pay Tribute to Jimmy Carter’s Legacy: ‘A Truly Good Man’.
But the Year-End mood is a bit dour because Futures are trying to second-guess the last few hours of the year.
Tomorrow we will get the S&P Case-Shiller Housing report. And already, there are a few stories, particularly out of the formerly great state of California. Tech downturn pushes San Francisco home prices to pre-pandemic levels. The “ponder problem” is whether this will light off a trend. Remember, there usually are big market corrections within six-months of a Fed rate cut direction change…
Shades of 1929?
As of the Friday close, we saw no reason to abandon our long-term belief that we could be facing a recession (or worse) in 2025. For one reason, the largess of investors and the serial bubbles since the Housing implosion in 2008-2009 are pretty clear in the rearview:
Early Futures (7:30 AM E) were down 60 (Dow), 12 (S&P) and 41 (NASDAQ). With the Dallas Fed report mid-morning, at least a second cup to stay awake seems in order.
BTC Sliding
We couldn’t help but notice BTC was down to $93,753 when checked earlier. We never got onboard that bandwagon because of three simple reasons:
- In our view, it was a Ponzi from the get-go. Taking money from others is dishonest because the Universe is transactional at its core. Hence, karma and F=MA or 32 ft/s/s in physics.
- It’s an anti-environment energy hog impacting climate more than even coal. Way more.
- The government camel has its “nose in the tent” and those crypto disclosures on 1040s just scream “Come audit me!” down the road as it all plays out.
Thanks, we’ll take a rain check.
BTC price ‘breakdown confirmed?’ 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week. Or, one thing to know: It’s like speeding, see? If you don’t speed, you don’t need to do the cop-scan and keep checking the rearview. Funny thing is? I used to be “that guy.” Even had a brake light defeat switch installed in my 944 and 930. (Grinding off the front air dam in heavy braking could have been a hint, too. Just from in front or the side, though…)
The Urban Consumer
I like Costco, generally. But, their board is full of shit. Costco Board Urges Shareholders to Reject Calls to End DEI Programs. In case you missed it, America got this far on merit and excellence. And we’ve institutionalized equality, too, which is a good thing. No, there are not 57 genders. To my feeble (old) mind, if board members deviate from the pursuit of Excellence and Merit, or if they make up genders to count, they should go back to school…
A Bagley Note. Bashful Bob, who runs a securities firm up in Dallas, got me hooked on drinking Tea instead of coffee. Main reason? Easier on the blood pressure. There’s no Costco close by, so we shop Amazon for Taylor’s of Harrogate Yorkshire Red tea (which is on sale). Now, though, I may have to go back to my old ways. Commercial tea bags release billions of tiny particles that enter your body, study finds. Oh well, there are plenty of polyphenols in coffee to help with anti-aging. Our last batch of coffee (Thanksgiving for our house guest) was Community Coffee, but we may try Amazon’s “direct trade” Rwandan next. The terms “fair” “direct” and “support fair labor” seems rather lawyerly.
Also in our sphere of interests: Do Vaccine Cause Chronic Diseases? While the science kids work on that, we’re pretty sure chronic diseases cause a monetary response. And those monetary flare-ups can be a bitch. They can spawn pharmaceutical companies, if you’re not mindful. (If they weren’t all linked, we wouldn’t have our antennae up looking for follow-on to Biden White House mulls pre-emptive pardons for Fauci, Schiff and Cheney: report
Further medical insights: CDC Warning: Drug 100X Worse Than Fentanyl Has Hit America, Deaths Rise Over 700 Percent. Remember the “good old days” of booze, bongs, and blow?
Behind Curtain #3? Déjà Flu?: Leana Wen Calls for Mass Testing, Immediate H5N1 Vaccine Authorization. Economy slowing? Need a rash of fear? Whoa boy….
Quippish and Snippish
As the world year comes to an end: 2024 Dishonest Reporter of the Year Awards | HonestReporting. Which is a more generalized concept in ‘Fox & Friends’ spotlights the worst media lies of 2024.
Let’s take it out of her retirement? Hochul Signs $75B Climate Superfund Act Targeting Oil And Gas Firms For CO2 Emissions. Remember, fans: No energy, no crypto con…
Reading lessons: when you read a story like ‘American Workers Deserve Better’: Sen. Eric Schmitt Slams H-1B Visa Abuses, ask why American workers can’t be found? (Hint: comes back to a failing higher ed system and not teaching today’s kids how to “get your grind on.”)
Here’s a math lesson, while we’re at it: Deporting Illegal Alien Criminals Will Save Taxpayers Money. Duh. No more catch and release.
Around the Ranch: Ham Radio SKN
Hi. My name is George. And I have an addiction. Morse Code.
Most of the time, my Morse on ham radio slams along at 20-30 words per minute on the lower end of the 40 and 20 meter ham bands. But tomorrow night (00:00 UTC), it becomes special. Because it’s the one night per year – Straight Key Night – and best done on old tube-type equipment – that we really get back to the “roots of ham radio.”
The operator, the key, the station, and the antenna. Straight Key Night.
Since Wednesday’s Peoplenomics report will be focused on the charts – after the market closes tomorrow – I should be able to get in several hours of “brass pounding.” A tradition that goes back to when my buddy The Major and I were competitively pursuing radiosport through high school in the mid 60’s.
He wasn’t as rabid about it. Which left him time to graduate cum laude from Seattle University. Where I dropped out of the E.E. program because I insisted on using a calculator instead of an old (yellow) K&E slide rule. Still, 40-words per minute code was more fun than all that book time. Besides, Shraders was more useful. First class commercial radio license and 40 WPM or cum laude? We’re not really sure – even here 60-years later on – which was the better choice. Beasley, Hymer, and Miller is close and much more up to date. We’ve both had great rides.
My, How Electronics Has Changed!
Back in those halcyon days, my first “real” radio was a Hallicrafters S-20R. To which I had nobbled up a single transistor Q-Multipler to improve on sensitivity and the “Q” of the radio’s passband. Even now, some of the best radio gear ever built (like the Drake 2B and it’s mating 2BQ Q-multiplier) provide awesome performance in the hands of a good operator.
Back then, communications was about to make a serial leap into solid-state devices. People seldom seem to appreciate what a huge change it was. But the “magic inside transmitters” changed.
Tube type transmitters used high voltages (4,000 volts) and small current (0.5 amps, or so) was the common design. And these were “tuned” to “match” an antenna using a simple pair of variable capacitors (that looked like bread slicers) and a coil or two,. It was called a pi-section filter. It reduced the plate impedance of the final amplifier (typically in the 5,000-10,000 ohm range) down to the antenna’s typical 50-450 ohm range.
Inside the newer (solid-state) radios coming along since, the final RF amplifier could be down in the 1 to 10 ohm range (common collector). This meant a different filter (and systems designed for more wide-band applications) had to come along. There it was the Chebyshev filter, much more friendly to low impedance amplifiers.
Of course, as you look at the Wiki page, you will see there is a LOT more math and less fiddling when done with a solid-state output radio. And that’s how we evolved from “hands on” radios (with lots of dials and fiddling around) to the Modern Marvels.
Is it “the same” on Morse? Hell no.
The difference is between driving an early 1930’s racing car and a modern speed spending, lane control, automatic braking semi-self driving ride hot off the showroom. There was no “book of code” in the early racers. But now? Computers and sensors uber alles!
From that came the digital follow-ons to early frequency-domain multiplexing that made huge phone systems possible. Cool? You bet. But as we keep pushing technology forward we are inventing a whole new class of what us “old school hams” call “Appliance Operators.”
In the driving analogy, the 1930’s driver taking a turn at 80 miles an hour, had to be “all over it.” Today, a turn at 80 (on a freeway) doesn’t even require a hand on the wheel if the white lines are in good shape.
Ditto in planes. Back when we didn’t have BRS systems, a trans-con was more an adventure. With fewer VORs and no GPS. Today, any idiot can fly and find the airport again.
Radio is the same way. Something gained, but in the process the Art has been killed. Stick potters at the marina always held us “rag boat” drivers in contempt, as well.
A hand on the tiller, a hand on the yoke, a hand on the wheel? All indicators of a Luddite, caught in an Age when people were generally more competent. Hands on worked.
A conversation of “dits and dash” in your head, too much of a stretch? Might we suggest a DC12V Morse Code Decoder Reader,Ham Radio Telegraph Cw Morse Code Key Morse Translator Interpreter for $22-bucks on Amazon?
If you even think about it, even for a sec? You’re just another “appliance operator” wannabe. Which forces me to ask: what part of “Life is transactional” aren’t you clear on?
Write when you get rich (or can do 25-30WPM Morse in your head — as all advanced direct-digital humans can…),
[email protected] (AC7X) ddh
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