There are about four – kinda separate – stories that have us paying attention today.
Let’s start with the Challenger Job Cuts report just out:
“U.S.-based employers announced 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest total for the month since 2009 when 186,350 job cuts were recorded. It is the highest monthly total since July 2020 when 262,649 cuts were announced, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
February’s total is a 245% increase from the 49,795 cuts announced one month prior. It is a 103% increase from the 84,638 cuts announced in the same month last year.
We think the market going soft prior to the numbers could still be a “noisy turn” into a move higher. Because, under Elliott, when a decline comes along, it is often a three-steps down (or up) affair.
More Data Munchies
International Trade: Exports, Imports, and Balance (Exhibit 1)
January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were
$401.2 billion, $36.6 billion more than December imports.
The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $33.5
billion to $156.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $25.4 billion.
Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit increased $64.5 billion, or 96.5 percent, from January 2024.
Exports increased $10.6 billion or 4.1 percent. Imports increased $75.2 billion or 23.1 percent.
New Unemployment Filings
UI Filing States Most Impacted:
Down then Up?
Over on the Peoplenomics.com website, there’s a starting point “Future Projector” I call the “BrainAmp.” The ways it works is this: Once you know the size of a first move (up or down makes no difference) then when Wave 2 begins, the rest is semi-predictable.
It’s kind of like when an alcoholic begins drinking again. Call that Wave 1. Then they swear off the sauce for a while (this is Wave 2). But then they seem to “fall off the Wagon” in legendary ways. Like Wave 3’s in markets. A few will bounce again (before bottoming out – which would be Wave 5 to “rock bottom” of a Bear market…). Other times, the “meet Bill’s friends” and a new (Wave structure) in life appears.
My point is there was repeating patterns in Life. the Economic Fractalist studies the recurring patterns (the fractals) of how so many patterns work. So we take his comments quite seriously. See the overnight comments here on where/how things can play from here in this approach.
But, back to the BrainAmp: Let’s think about the NASDAQ from December (2024) highs:
Could I be wrong in my “getting bullish?” Maybe. But several things to put on the table.
- The BrainAmp spreadsheet covers “normal cases.” But, Wave 3s do not need to be 1.5 times Wave 1 declines. They can be 30 percent larger than wave 1 clunes, for example.
- When we consider this, we could have a Wave 4 comprised of only a 1,468.35 point decline (from the Wave 2 rally high).
- Which means a third wave could (in theory) stop (turn) at 18,587.8. Oh, and we hit that at the Monday NASDAQ close (18,285.16)
If I were guessing? (*Calling putting money into paper is NOT investing; it’s speculating and anyone who says otherwise is a damn fool…) A pullback early today, but by the close Friday, the Defense industry will look strong again (Bigger “enemy” (China) will be rolled out and here comes hiring). And in the longer-span of history, Russia may “get into it” with the EU over Ukraine, but as my consigliere pointed out last weekend (and I dutifully passed on earlier this week” “What nobody’s talking about is China and how Ukraine is pushing Russia and China closer togethere.”
Which is how we got to this morning.
Where, in the very early futures, our Ebbinghaus-Ure model was hinting our bullishness may have been premature. But all in the fullness of time?
Could it be there is a turn at hand, and the beatdown at the open today will allow the commercials to get out of shorts and get long in prep to run things up for a wave 4 after a 1.3X Wave 3? Or, will we crashcade lower than 1.5 times wave 1 down?
About China
They are NOT happy with the US focus on financial solvency. Because it will reduce the chain around our financial goanies. China slams US tariffs, says its economy is resilient but there are no winners in a trade war.
Countering this, the US is engaged in “tough talk.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says US is ‘prepared’ to go to war with China over tariff threats.
But it’s more than just talk, turns out: The U.S. is doing something about Chinese having their hands in the “digital cookie jar…” US Charges 12 Alleged Spies in China’s Freewheeling Hacker-for-Hire Ecosystem | WIRED. Which (try not to be shocked here) China calls BS on: China rejects U.S. groundless accusations on cyberattack-Xinhua. My, haven’t the kids in the Chaoyang district of Beijing been busy at the agitprop machine?
The Other Branch of WW3 is, of course, Europe.
Where Russia hits Zelenskyy’s hometown with ballistic missile amid US aid freeze. While that drags out, here’s the post-child for war in Europe: French President Emmanuel Macron, in an address to the nation, REJECTED a ceasefire in Ukraine He declared that peace in Europe is only possible with a weakened Russia, calling the country a direct threat to France and the continent. Cognac talking, or what?
If you sit back with a drink and a few history books, you can see how the Trump administration is trying to maneuver the US into getting industrial production back on its feet here. WW3 is coming. The financial fraud will bring it on. We will have to stiff China. But when we do, that will take plant and equipment construction to make war materiel and you can’t afford that with a towering Debt. So that explains why the tariffs are so important.
But they are also being handled softly. Trump grants one-month exemption for US automakers from new tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada. Our auto (and plane) factories could be critical within months.
Meanwhile, did you notice Trump considers criminal charges for USAID staff after DOGE uncovered wild ‘abuse’ ? And with our forensic economics deerstalker still firmly in place, Dark Money Disaster: How Democrats Funneled Billions Into a Mysterious Climate Shell.
Worth a Look
(If you just can’t get enough obnoxious pop-ups in your life) Google previews AI Mode for search, taking on the likes of ChatGPT search and Perplexity | TechRadar
Further to our observation that Neocon’s are all crazy now that their fanning the flames of WW3 have failed for a while: NeoCon Never Trumper Bill Kristol Embraces Transgenderism. Is insanity becoming contagious? Well, how about Teen Girl Faces Probe for ‘Misgendering’ Male Basketball Player. Yep, it’s so crazy we’re keeping the front gate closed during the day now.
Not surprising, sorry to say: Holy shiiit. Stranded astronaut still in space admits that Elon (SpaceX) offered to rescue them but low life Biden rejected it.
Around the Ranch: Playing the CBDP
That’s right – had to drag out the circuit board drill press (which is normally out at the hobby shop workbench) Wednesday:
I know – seems like an extravagance. But, there are times when it’s just so much nicer to work under good lighting, in a comfortable office rather than crank up a big drill press for small precision work. Picked mine up last year, but don’t know when they will be back in stock again at the Zon.
One other thing you may not have in your shop is a set of “stubby drills.” *(like these). Thing is, most times you drill holes in the home shop, very few (save the odd 2-by-4) really use 3-inches of drill. In fact, seldom more than half inch.
One new tool that caught my eye is being sold as a “flip drill.” Dremel calls theirs a multi-drill ($100) while Skil’s right angle drill whizzy runs $80-bucks. All look to be spins off the older style (corded) close-quarters drill (like this one under $40).
OK, drill time is over – back to real work…
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
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