Since our roots are in economics – and specifically long wave economics as in Kondratieff – we should begin with the money drivers, first.
Specifically the Federal employment report just out:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs.”
OK, that’s the press release hype. But here’s where the Lie-Gap comes in: The database at Labor tells a WAY different story if you remember how to run a calculator:
Our calculator says 355-thousand fewer peoiple were employed – things are cratering as slow Joe shuffles out. Stocks love a liar, though: So the Dow was only down 50-ish after this collapse in the actual/household #s.
We assume you know that there is a “household data” and an employer side to this. Which allows the current administrations to report big employment gains on establishment data while households experience a whole “alter-world.”
In other words, if employers suddenly cut hours – and double the number of part-timers – that looks like “small change at the household level but a boom at the establishment level. Tons of “political prosperity” in the District of Corruption.
Big job numbers play well with the lower IQ-class; just don’t try to spend it.
Quake II
Following our remarkable publication of the “Earthquake Tireds” report early Thursday, only to be followed by the 7.0 magnitude earthquake strikes off coast of Humboldt County a few hours later, and stories about others having similar earthquake “symptoms” (‘The worst vertigo of my life’) we are braced for the possibility of more and worse.
Hat tip to Bay area reader “c” who reported in our Comments section her experience pre-quake:
“I woke up at 4am, had to herbally get back to sleep, few days ago heard a short quake beep, the ‘shaking’ (of nerves, anyway lol, live in SF Bay Area) doesn’t stop for a week: Japan issues first-ever megaquake warning after M7.1 Kyushu earthquake .
‘Statistical data on past large earthquakes around the world shows that of the 1 437 earthquakes with moment magnitude 7.0 or more that occurred between 1904 and 2014, there were 6 cases of earthquakes with moment magnitude 8 or more occurring in the same area within seven days of the first earthquake, and the frequency of occurrence thereafter decreases over time.’
This gets us to a key point, which we understand is even getting some attention in military circles: This (first big) quake was at the south end of the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate. This region is the Cascadia subduction zone.
What’s concerning is that the last time a major mid-plate slip occurred, it sent a wall of water down the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Whence, walled off by Whidbey Island (where the Navy now has a naval air station) the tsumani ran up toward Vancouver, BH.C. and down Puget Sound. Think Bangor and Bremerton .mil assets.
“The “1700 Cascadia earthquake” was a massive, magnitude 8.7-9.2 earthquake that occurred on January 26, 1700, along the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the Pacific Northwest coast of North America, causing a huge tsunami that reached as far as Japan; this event is primarily known through geological evidence like “ghost forests” and historical Japanese tsunami records, as no written accounts exist from the region directly affected by the earthquake itself.”
Folks I knew in the seismology lab at the UW back in my Seattle newsing days told me this monster rolled over most of Vashon Island, which is south of Elliott Bay.
Where the seers and prognosticators differ is on expectations of when the Next One is due. My consigliere seems to think a major Japan quake first, but other well-schooled colleagues think Cascadia quake first.
Some scary stuff is out there on what it would be like. A scenario planning and response document by the Washington (state) Department of Natural Resources lays it out this way:
“It’s 8:16 on a chilly, wet morning in early spring. You’ve just arrived at work and are pouring a cup of coffee when you become aware of a low rumbling noise. Within seconds, the rumbling becomes a roar,
the floor beneath you heaves, and the building begins to pitch and shake so violently that you’re thrown to the floor. The roaring is joined by a cacophony of crashing as windows shatter and every unsecured
object in the room—from the desk chair to the coffee pot—is sent flying. Shaken loose by the shuddering and jolting of the building, dust and ceiling particles drift down like snow. Then the lights flicker and go out. Remembering to “drop, cover, and hold,” you crawl under the nearest table, hold on tight, and tell yourself that the shaking should last only a few seconds more . . . but it goes on and on.
This is it: the Big One. The Cascadia subduction zone has just unleashed a magnitude 9.0 earthquake. “
Normally, market impacts of major quakes are minimal. They are functionally similar to wars; they kill people and break things. And in other ways “till the economic soil” to make way for new (albiet synthetic) growth.
But there is a threshold, above which quakes make things worse in markets. When we queried Google iterative A.I. as to this linkage between markets and quakes, we were told:
“Yes, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake contributed to the Knickerbocker Crisis, also known as the Panic of 1907:
Insurance payments
After the earthquake, British insurance companies paid out claims to policyholders in San Francisco from their home funds. This caused a sudden outflow of gold from the UK to the US, which threatened the fixed sterling-dollar exchange rate.
Interest rates
In response to the gold outflow, the Bank of England raised interest rates. This led to a lack of available loans and a contraction of the economy.
Depositor runs
A series of depositor runs occurred at banks in New York and other US cities. This meant that many customers withdrew their deposits at the same time due to concerns about their banks’ solvency.
Stock market crash
The New York Stock Exchange crashed, with a near-50% decline from its previous year’s peak.
The 1906 San Francisco earthquake also led to global discussions about whether to exclude earthquake hazards from fire insurance contracts. “
Whether a modern-day replay of the 1907 quake could happen? Well, the jury is out. But, with a mega quake warning now active in Japan and with a known risks in the Cascadia subduction zone – “overdue” by roughly 75-years – it seems to us that the odds are increasing.
Daily.
News Flow Ripples
Was that good for you? Bitcoin is back under $100K amid a fresh outbreak of hype: Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expire Amid Growing Hedging Activity. So, let me see if I have this right: You make up a “secret number” with little to no intrinsic value, and then you make up options on this notional currency? Ah, I see it now. The second derivative of stupid has been calculated. We need to move to Las Vegas and set up options chains on blackjack and roulette…
Need more proof? Hawk Tuah Girl is being investigated by law firms over possible lawsuit as fans ‘lose life savings’ after buying her cryptocurrency. We may hold up the issuance of Urbancoin for a while.
Neocons are still working overtime trying to light up another Ukraine-like war: Georgian opposition leader arrested, beaten unconscious as Tbilisi protests continue. Maybe this time we can get a “Friday special” so Georgia doesn’t cost the $6-billion the Ukraine revolution and coup we funded cost. Maybe we could get a kind of a blue light special on color revolutions, perhaps?
Best republicans money can buy? GOP senators who could block Tulsi Gabbard’s confirmation took huge checks from defense industry. Wait, really? Gee, I’m, uh….well maybe not.
Texas Remains Rational: Judge throws out Boeing plea deal over DEI provision. The judge had the good sense to question race over merit for a federal (DoJ) monitor of company efforts.
DOGE will have some easy-pickings: Your Tax Dollars At Work: Only 6% Of Federal Workers Come In To Work. Quick: what’s 6 percent of “too many”?
Another PayPal grad makes good: Trump says David Sacks will be AI and crypto ‘czar’.
Closing in on a killer: UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson’s suspected killer arrived in NYC last month on bus that left from Atlanta: sources. Meanwhile,one of our colleagues is wondering if it’s a man, or woman just pretending based on facial structure. Although he dropped out of his prenology classes.
Weekend Watchlist: Tucker Carlson on X: “Russia’s longtime foreign minister describes the war with the United States and how to end it. (0:00) Is the US at War With Russia? (12:56) Russia’s Message to the West Through Hypersonic Weapons (17:47) Is There Conversation Happening Between Russia and the US? (23:18).
At the Ranch: An Escape Room Lesson
As chronicled in my book Psychocartography, I live two distinct lives. One when awake and one when asleep.
Of course, if you don’t have regular vivid dreams, calling 8-hours of “dark” a life is a bit silly. However, when you get vivid dreaming down, it’s like going into an iMax clone of the waking world several nights a week. Except things are different and many more adventures than Here and Now waking permits.
When not working on personal flying skills or banishing demons, though, there’s a ton of learning to be found “over there.” And one of the “taskaways” from last night might be worth mentioning.
You see, we live this “waking state” (some claim) in a Simulation. And in my books, I’ve described this as something akin to “And Escape Room Problem.”
If you’ve never been to one, an escape room is a physical and mental game where players work together to solve puzzles and find clues to escape a room within a time limit. Of course in Life (the waking one) the clue as to whether “game time is up” is simple. If you’re alive, the game is still on…
Which sets up the most interesting carry-over (back to waking from dream Realms). Because so many humans are looking for the sim/escape room Key to “win the world.”
“The key,” I was told “Is to understand that everyone holds the knowledge but rarely does anyone turn the key.”
Explain?
“Well, we all have the same basic concepts and words. But the Switch to turn off the Sim, is only turned by getting the “right thoughts” in the right order. If I told you, for example, that The Sim Key was turned by thinking – in order – apples, bananas, and oranges was the key – you would be Empowered in the Sim.
But if you don’t get the exact order right, then nothing happens, nothing at all. Bananas first, followed by apples and oranges won’t work. So your “takeover” to waking perhaps could remind people that finding The Key only happens so rarely that when found, whole religions spring up based on the personality in Waking.
This is why regimented thought is so strictly enforced. Can’t have the few who have partially solved the Key Quest being lapped by just everyday honest souls, now, can we?”
I have to think about that as time permits. Order of Thoughts – as a key to The Sim – it isn’t something people just come up to you on the street and whisper. But it’s a grand taunt from Universe; what mental constructs (love, hate, forgiveness, greed, aspirations…) are the right ones accessible to all prophets throughout history? And then, what is the Key Order?
Hmm. Interesting challenge. Because the potential payoff could be reducing religions to a pithy two or three page document. The Key and the “Now what?”
Or, is (what passes for present) Reality, just a tunneling sim? World’s 2nd fastest supercomputer runs largest-ever simulation of the universe. Did God answer? Turn up the ringer on the next sim sent.
We know Life’s a sim when 355,000 fewer are working and markets flip to rally at the open. ViseGrips to the forearm on my count: 3-2-…..
Rich write get when you, (Guess that wasn’t IT, huh? Only a few quadrillion iterations to go…)
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