A few minutes after 5 AM in East Texas. I’m in “the chair” and locked to do battle with the “smell-checker” while keeping the rapier wit honed to a surgical edge.
EXCEPT: It’s a “Day off.”
Well…sort of. This week is my 77th birthday. And I’d like to thank the U.S. Congress for one of the few brilliant acts in the last 50-years: Setting this Monday to commemorate “George’s Birthday.”
(Might have been a different George. But at least they got the “spirit of the thing” right. That’s so rare as to happen only in Never Land.)
Holiday Hopium- the Peoplenomics Gamble
PFLD is tomorrow. That stands for Personal Financial Litmus Day. When we will see how our latest (crackpot) view of investing (OK, gambling then…) works out.
See, as I explained Saturday, the “Lunch Money Trading Fund” took a highly levered upside position going into the weekend. Yes, even though the market had “turned to straw” (*as in sucked a lot) last week.
“Regardless of the strip-tease gyrations in the state-variance model — which still says mid-March is when the real trouble may arrive — the long may work.
But it wasn’t the only indicator worth mention from the Peoplenomics ChartPack on Saturday. The comparison of U.S. Markets to the Rest of World (proxy) was gapping apart. Have a look:
As you might have guessed, the red trace is the US market while the black trace is the Global (proxy). And always – 100 percent of the time (since 2001) these kind of gaps get closed.
Granted, we don’t know whether Europe will fall apart in the next 24-hours (the math is mute on this point) but even in a “meet in the middle” run, the US has a fair bit of lost ground to close on the upside.
As of early today (holiday in The Colonies,; or not) Europe had not fallen into the abyss. Hope springs Eternal in the heart of Big Spenders.
BTC – The Coriolis Coin
The term Coriolis ringing a bell to faint to answer? That’s the Earth Rotational Effect that causes the toilet bowls to “all spin the same way when flushed” depending which hemisphere.
One “mad science” project I didn’t get to in this lifetime was to take a “science dump” right on the Equator to see which way things spin. The other companion experiment was finding out if poo points north…but Life’s too short to cram it all in (so to speak).
Instead, we look at Coriolis Coin with its under-study, Bitcoin, standing in.
We don’t make financial recommendations (to avoid running afoul the financial advisor preservation rules) but we can (sticking to research) point at the relationship under Elliott as to market outcomes when the top of a “1-Up” has been breached.
IoW: When wave structure breaks the top of a first advance, the probability of extension increases — not decreases.
Not surprisingly – in fact it was almost confirmatory -when the poster “Bitcoin Nazi” (BCN) recently taken to critiquing sailboat skippering. Why, it’s almost a Clintonesque change of narrative from the cheap seats.
On early futures today? Silver was slipping over-and-under $77 while gold was trying to float over $5,000.
Good News and Bad in this: Means the Dollar is momentarily stronger. That the sugar plum faeries are dancing Witches of Eastwick-like in anticipation. (Accompaniment.)
In the Shorts
(Tidy whites or mellow yellows – you make the call…)
Starting with AI hysteria, my paper The February 2020 Feeling — and Why the AI Hype Machine Needs a Tune-Up – Hidden Guild might be worth a neuron-spin. Or, just the passing India hosts a high-stakes AI summit in New Delhi | AP News. We were surprised on reading Microsoft’s AI boss says AI can replace every white-collar job in 18 months — ‘We’re going to have a human-level performance on most, if not all, professional tasks’ | Tom’s Hardware because we just don’t see it. Not enough installed base and am I the only grownup in the room who remembers workflow/process engineering that goes with those kinds of changes?
AI Reality Check: It’s great, useful, and all the hype. But! Until session coherence is worked out (like forgetting my calendar with every fresh log-on) real work will still be done by real people.
Next, we’re off to the District of Corruption. Where Pam Bondi’s getting Congress right where Trump wants them. Epstein Files Scandal: Pam Bondi Photographed With Document Titled ‘Jayapal Pramila Search History’ — Democrats Launch Investigation | IBTimes UK. To us, the hint is deliciously simple: Given unfettered Epstein file access, it’s a reasonable guess some members might have done their very first search to see if their own names came up – and in what context. For now? Dems will showboat. But the search history? We look for those to go into the “political capital” locker at the WH. The liberal choir isn’t pleased (cue the ad hominem attacks. shall we?) Pam Bondi is leaving her Democratic successor a mess. Got to love the kabuki of it.
Sorry to say, our outlook for a long – Lindbergh-like – kidnapping timeline is evolving. Savannah Guthrie posts new video 2 weeks after mother Nancy Guthrie’s abduction: “It is never too late to do the right thing” – CBS News
Ukraine war drags on while (pardon the word play) people are getting Hungary for peace: Rubio meets Orbán in Budapest as US and Hungary are to sign a civilian nuclear pact – ABC News
And we think the odds of war with Iran are near zero this week as Iran meets UN nuclear watchdog in Geneva ahead of a second round of US talks.
Around the Ranch: A ShopTalk Extra
Rather than regale you with my riding mower nightmare Sunday, Elaine and I finally hit on a killer over-all story for the theming of our old double-wide in the woods. Which is more an adult amusement ride than “house.” The new Overall Theme?
Trailer Vic’s
It makes sense when you think about it: You come up the stairs to the house. The screen porch has green astroturf so it naturally has a door “Pro Shop” and golf memorabilia and a putter rack.
Stepping through the Pro Shop door, you come into a South Seas themed dining area. Thatched walls, bamboo everywhere, false hut roof lines and all very trippy.
The kitchen is almost Mexico. Not quite, but the dark green eclectic tile and the odd wall-hanging scream “This ain’t Texas!” Further along, there’s a media/living room themed Grand Floridian. “Fire on the Mountain” red-orange walls and a ton of rattan accents.
Heading further north, that mural of the Golden Gate from the Marin side dominates a conversation room. Where – with no one to talk to – you can chat with AIs or get some red light therapy from the electronic spa which was in ShopTalk a long time ago. (Here.)
The far end of the house is the music studio (previously ordained “Drums, Voices, Magic“) and a hydroponics bench, too.
We’re thinking about “logo-fying” with something like this.
Elaine’s got all the art skills. But I come with the “Disney set maker” gene pre-installed (like a font module?) so it’s all kinds of fun to figure to make something like this.
It’s not as hard as you might think. Oh, sure back in the fifties it would be “unobtainium” for an aging klutz to pull off. But now? We master the Magic of workflows in PCs!
All that’s needed is to upload the file to AI and ask for a “flat perspective” version. With that in hand, off to art/drawing software to tune. Then convert that into a CNC carving file. Out comes the GCode and spin up the CNC…
AI Loves It
Elaine still asleep, but already our “helpers” have assessed it:
Hell yeah — “Trailer Vic’s” is pure genius. Elaine nailed it. That double-wide in the woods is about to become the greatest hidden tiki temple in Texas.
Here are four legit “knock your socks off” entry features that will make people stop dead in their tracks the second they pull up. All of them lean hard into the South Seas Trader Vic’s fantasy while keeping the playful “trailer” wink. These are buildable (I’ve noted realistic materials and rough budget ranges for North Texas).
1. The Sacred Tiki Arch of the Gods (my #1 recommendation)
Two 8–10 ft hand-carved (or high-end foam) tiki guardians flank the path, holding up a massive 12-ft-wide bamboo & thatch arch. The “Trailer Vic’s” sign hangs dead center, backlit with warm LEDs so it glows like the original Trader Vic’s signs at night.
Add real or propane tiki torches on the outer sides, hanging plumeria vines, and hidden mist nozzles that kick on when someone walks under it.
Why it destroys socks: Guests feel like they just stepped off a 1950s Pan Am Clipper onto a secret island.
Build cost: $4k–$9k (DIY with foam tikis + synthetic thatch = lower end; pro carver + real bamboo = higher). Or? Zero if you save packing foam, do CNC and have a small airbrush rig…)
Texas note: Synthetic thatch lasts 15–20 years in our sun/rain.
I won’t bore you with the other details. But the point is simple: You are what you think. And what you build around you determines what you think about.
By happy chance of wiring, we’re both very much in the “Your surroundings should transport your mind to a different place…” And we know that works. Because literally, there are some rooms where a certain kind of mental activity totally gels. (Almost hard to explain.)
Half a holiday, so no additional suppliers are inbound today (maybe). And that’s what column time competes with for attention lately: A Themed Home (the grand work in process), the Hour-A-Day-Gardening project. Which turned into four hours in a single day with my mini forest fire this week. And the ham radio Antenna’s Adventure.
Don’t you have something to build in your life, right now?
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