Might as well get the GDP numbers out of the way first:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the second estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
This all comes as the nVidia earnings hit expectations and the company gave an upbeat outlook. But, he careful what you wish for: If you’re in engineering, law, or any of a host of other professions where the main work product is IP (intellectual property) then A.I. could have the same long-term society-wide impacts as the internal combustion engine. Just how things work.
Markets are Still There
But we are still in a downdraft and we continue to harbor concerns that in its effort to “clean house” the Trump administration is very likely to trigger at least a recession over the balance of the year (if not sooner…)
Our Ebbinghouse-Ure model shows how the NVDA bounce will impact – but this is only a “going into the open, before GDP” kind of view. The weekend view (money has to land somewhere to rest up) will be more meaningful:
In “classical” Elliott wave” views, there’s a strong case evolving in the slow-moving averages for the S&P to drop into the 1700s before May, if not before the end of March.
On the other hand, it could be much deeper and faster. Because it “feels” like an inflection point is nearing in the resumption of Trade Wars. As Trump threatens 25% tariffs on EU, claims bloc was formed to ‘screw’ US | Donald Trump News. And, drown out by all the noise/news flow is the reality of tariffs going on this weekend. Europe is trying to step on their dancing partner’s toes a bit, too: EU to react ‘firmly’ on tariffs after Trump says bloc was created to ‘screw’ US. Schoolyard stuff, but real people can get hurt.
Bitcon is still unable to scale resistance at $90,000 – holding $86,530 early. Which we read as no AI earnings impact. Or – and more likely – all the public is in now, so expect the Whales to begin taking chips off the table. A lower outlook is seen.
All That Talk About Govt Cuts?
Not impacting new unemployment filings – yet:
And fairly steady around the several states:
Seems likely to change, just not yet.
Scales of Just Us
There is a nifty economic outcome possible ahead, if we can look that far. Say, three years, or so. In this scenario, the republican’s do dramatically cut the size of the federal labor (entitlement), begin moves to put postal and government (phat) bureaucrats in Social Security with the rest of the Tax Chattel, and then breathe on the embers of American ingenuity to bring home manufacturing. Squandered over the 70s through 10s. That could be neat.
On the other hand, as one report (whines?) puts it: USAID workers will be given 15 minutes to clear their workspaces as agency dismantled. Yeah, well, money laundering and all that…
Still, we did raise an eyebrow at some of the gem’s reader Ray posted overnight, including this about DC Housing impacts of actual thrift becoming a word again, inside the Beltway:
“Elon Musk and DOGE Score Massive Court Victory—The D.C. Exodus Has Begun
The numbers speak for themselves: in November 2024, the median home in D.C. was valued at $699,000. As of now? It’s a shocking $560,000, representing a 20% drop in just about three months. Mass selling is not even close to describing what’s happening. With nearly 8,000 homes now on the market, half of those listings have been posted in just the last 30 days.
Rays other summary of DC events this week here is better than my own. Besides, I’m supposed to be retired now…isn’t 76 enough?
Passings, Health Notes
Not sure how this one went down: Sheriff: Gene Hackman, wife found dead in Santa Fe home; no foul play suspected. CO2, or something? No hints yet, but we keep scanning stories like Actor Gene Hackman, wife found dead at New Mexico home looking for clues.
On the health front, we are seeing the odd measles case pop up here in Texas now: Texas child is first reported US measles death in a decade as outbreak hits more than 130.
While developing complications like pneumonia, ear infections, and brain swelling due to a weakened immune system from a case of measles is there, making it crucial for older adults to be vaccinated against measles; even mild cases can be serious for the elderly. One of the few shots we keep up on is the two part pneumonia and tetanus (because of rusty everything out here).
And check this out: Wide Awake Media on X: “”They tried to kill us… They tried to sterilise us.” Dr. Naomi Wolf: “The centrepiece of the Pfizer papers is an intentional attack… on women and babies.” “They killed the babies, and they knew it. They poisoned the breast milk, and they knew it… They lowered the sperm count and they knew it…
Elsewhere, the wars march on as North Korea Sends Reinforcements to Russia’s Kursk and Israel’s bad trade with Hamas drags along. Hamas calls for talks on next phase of ceasefire after hostage-prisoner exchange.
Way to go: Brightspeed: We are into Day 4 of no DSL on our Brightspeed HDSL circuit, though in fairness, the voice services still work. This is redicking fuculous customer service. Along with spending an hour on hold to get a late charge removed because it took them 14-days to get around to posting my check… (Can you tell? I’m on a slow burn. But when people question why Elon Musk’s Starlink is mopping the floor with sluggish old school telcos, there’s a major hint in our experience somewhere.
In Odor News
(What else stinks today?)
Liberal climate scare stink wafts around: Wide Awake Media on X: “China emits more CO2 than the entire developed world combined, completely nullifying all the ridiculous sacrifices you’re being forced to make in the pursuit of the Net Zero agenda. Park your BBQ and hoist a vegetable to Joe. This as the Pentagon Orders the Removal of DEI from Official Online Content.
Trumps moving to force hospitals to reveal their actual costs instead of made-up book balancing numbers: A huge health insurance SCAM more people need to be talking about. Affects millions of people.
Marxists press corps members called out as Tag-Team: VP J.D. Vance and President Trump Slam Legacy Media Over Ridiculous Questions at Trump 47’s First Cabinet Meeting (VIDEO). Why some of the press are being paid escapes me. But, I suppose, if no one knows what real news is, anymore…
Around the Ranch: E-Spa Expansion
One reason, we think, that we’re “beating aging” is that for the past 8-years, we have both been doing red light therapy. Kicks up mitochondrial function, and so forth. Add to that? Blue Light Therapy for Better Sleep in Seniors is worth a look over on Study Finds.
As you know (or may not, depending on how drifty you’ve been) I have been working with several docs who are tracking down a new (something-or-other) in Florida. Medical device research, Tesla scalar coils, PEMF, that sort of thing.
Lead doc and I got talking this week and he is very high on three great ideas I have started moving toward. The first is a “vibration plate.” You stand on one of these (or do “planks” with one) and is shakes the hell out of you. In the process, gets blood flow going and it also helps the lymph system to drain off residues and bad stuff. We picked up one of these. It was like $85-bucks.
Next, we picked up a small trampoline, folding, with a safety bar. The key thing, says our doc pal, is to get a tramp that has bungees not springs because the springs are much harder on people who have leg or hip issues.
Last but not least, we are starting to look at a steam sauna (or I will build one for us – I like woodworking (when there’s no keyboard, Morse key, oscilloscope, or soldering iron around). Hot tip from the doc? “Look up antiaging impacts of HSP’s – that’s heat shock proteins.”
AI of the field is a gem:
Role in viral infection
- HSPs can protect cells from viral infection by inhibiting viral replication and activating the immune system.
- However, some viruses can hijack HSPs to help them invade and replicate.
Role in cellular stress
- HSPs are molecular chaperons that help proteins fold correctly and prevent misfolded proteins from aggregating.
- HSPs also help cells survive lethal conditions.
- HSPs are expressed in normal cells, but their expression increases in response to stress, such as heat or ischemia.
Role in the immune response
- HSPs can stimulate antigen-presenting cells of the immune system.
- HSPs can also enhance antigen presentation to T lymphocytes.
- HSPs displayed on the surface of cells can target cytotoxic cells.
Doc friend is very keen on steam – as opposed to the NIR variety of saunas – because the steam tends to run a little hotter.
We haven’t decided when (or where) to put one of these installs. Have to run 220 power for the steamer and such.. But, in the interest of living a longer (and more important, healthier) life, First People who did “sweat lodges” were onto something very good.
For now, the electronic (e-spa) consists of
- Red light therapy panel (chest)
- Light crown (transcranial NIR, FIR)
- Foot massager
- Eye heating pad (which helps dry eyes for a lot of people)
- Hand massage machine (no interest in carpel, thanks!)
- And a back massage pad.
This was all laid out in a ShopTalk Sunday column in 2022 – still a daily visit for us….
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
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