Part of my 2026 Goal Package is to write less, stimulate more, and get my Morse back to 40 words a minute. Today in the digital dojo, flips, forecasts, Friday and fun for Skimmer Nation.
Markets: Long Views First
Pop over and see The Economic Fractalist’s discussion of where we are in long-term cycles.
Then look at how the NASDAQ was setting up today in our state variance extremes model:
This was the early set-up. While BTC was treading water to hold $66,000, we we busy looking a week out. This time next week the federal job numbers will pop. More noodle-outs in our Peoplenomics ChartPack tomorrow morning on the subscriber side. Meanwhile, though…
Daily Data Drops
Let’s make this a quick skim: Copy/pasted press release leads:
GDP:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.
Personal Income:
Personal income increased $86.2 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.7 billion (0.3 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $91.0 billion (0.4 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $90.2 billion in December. Personal saving was $830.8 billion in December, and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.6 percent.
Producer Prices – Final Demand
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.4 percent in December 2025 and 0.2 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ended January 2026.
The January increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.8-percent advance in the index for final demand services. In contrast, prices for final demand goods declined 0.3 percent.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in
January, the ninth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in January, prices for final
demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.4 percent.
Stock Futures pricing has continued to fall with Dow -424 and NASDAQ -177 at click time.
Another Replay Riff Appearing?
We’ll do drought in a second, Guthrie case as Lindbergh kidnapping echo, Ponzi as Crypto schemes, tech stocks as Bubble II, the list of rhymes is long (and interesting!).
But here’s the latest one to grab – and it’s not a rhyme per se – more like a Riff.
Here’s the gist of it: Trump Reportedly Mulling Plan to Declare ‘National Emergency’ Paving Way for Major Power Grab/
The left’s big fear? Trump might declare a national emergency based on alleged Chinese interference in the 2020 election — and if enacted, grant extraordinarily broad presidential authority over how future elections are run, including mail-in ballots and election machinery. The concept has triggered intense legal and constitutional concern because election administration is primarily the province of state legislatures under the Constitution, and presidents traditionally have no unilateral authority to override that sovereignty.
Sure – concerning, but around here this is more an “inverted mirror” reflection of the political tensions that surrounded Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency in the 1930s and ’40s. FDR inherited a nation in economic crisis and responded with an unprecedented expansion of federal power through the New Deal, emergency relief programs, and extensive executive action designed to stabilize the economy and provide social safety nets. Roosevelt’s use of executive orders and government reorganization fundamentally reshaped the presidency and the scope of federal authority, prompting fierce debate and even allegations in his day that he was approaching dictatorship — most famously surrounding his 1937 court-packing plan and his decision to break the long-established tradition of stepping down after two terms.
The comparison isn’t precise — Roosevelt responded to an ongoing economic catastrophe and wartime exigencies, and he worked with Congress to pass sweeping legislation rather than claiming unilateral authority to overhaul election law. Yet the core issue in both cases is similar: a centralization of power in the executive branch during moments of national crisis raises enduring questions about constitutional boundaries, the resilience of democratic institutions, and the safeguards designed to prevent any president from becoming effectively permanent or unchecked. The 22nd Amendment — limiting presidents to two terms — was a post-Roosevelt reform precisely because the Framers feared a too-powerful executive, and today’s debate shows why those concerns remain alive and deeply felt.
Oh, and did each man have a hand in lighting up a world war? Did cutting off Japan’s oil in WW II push them into attacking Pearl Harbor? And will the U.S. pushing Iran start World Flush III?
Stay tuned; We may get the answer in March!
The Story Not to Miss
This one is huge. You just don’t see it yet. Because it’s not in the lemming news cycle. However, tell me what this looks like for this time of year?
Low rain and warm temps? Yeah, I’m putting our newest swamp cooler in this weekend because with low rel. humidity, they can work great.
But this isn’t about our indoor Romaine. It’s about Big Picture – tips that drop in our Comment Section. Like this one:
“A friend told me today the weather this winter here on the plains has actually been –too– mild. The winter wheat crop has not had enough cold to properly go dormant like it normally would. As a result, it may start heading out too early, and be zapped by a late freeze (a very real possibility through April or even May). If that happens, no wheat crop. The spring wheat up north may fare better.. ..”
Early, but 3 PM today be looking at the USDA Farm prices report this afternoon. As goes food prices, so goes America. Remember, food is a huge part of exports…
Around the Ranch: Dry Here…
Anderson County Texas is in a 7-day burn ban. Unusual as hell. Because normally, we’re in a pitched battle with water-logged ground and cranky septics right now. It’s also when we normally had “green-up” and time was right for “fire gardening.” Not so this year.
We’re feeling only partially flushed though. 2-inches of rain is due next week. After that: It’s anyone’s guess.
But one we’ve come to use more than the Old Farmers is the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts. Here’s a link to think: Climate Prediction Center. Thing is, while precip here should run near average, that warm winter (except for one 12F cold snap) is rolling into a hot spring:
So Alaska (and the PNW) will chill, but the South will be hot.
And already dry as hell, though: We’ll end February around 3.66 inches year to date. Same period last year? 6.28 inches. If that doesn’t sound like a problem, you go explain it to the tomatoes!
Even cats are more responsive…
On the menu here: We will be dropping hydroponic seeds in this weekend – playing the weather windows ahead.
My pal “the Deacon” dropped off a grape plant (the big pink grapes type). We’re trying to decide whether to put it in the greenhouse next to the music studio, or in the yard. I’m thinking yard because the plant would get more sun and have more root space. But outside there’s risk from Mr. Weed-whacker and you know what that can result in “bites to bark.” (*rarrf)
Like so much else in life, simple answers are elusive.
Speaking of which – my ramble on calculus in Thursday’s column got reactions from Striks (our sailor down in north Oz wetlands, d’Lynn (Three-piece) our local math whiz, and reader Ray.
I’m sticking by “Math is like my shotgun. Not for everything but when you need it, sometimes it’s the right tool… Count on it!”
Write before their pun police storm the place,
Read the full article here
