We ought to begin with the federal jobs report, first thing. We expected that the market would bounce around a bit in here, but honestly it has been quite the week so far. In fact, at the close Thursday, the volatility index (VIX) was at 24.65 which is a far cry from the 15’s where it had been running recently. Are people afraid? Well, actually, now that you mentioned it…
OK, so here’s what just popped:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.
When we look at the CES Birth-Death Model (essentially: guesstimated job creation) it looked like this.
And then we have the database. And this is where we get into the question of “How do you want to view the world?” One way is to take the “headline number” but the other is to use the more (rational) household data. We are drawn to the database number; laziness and sloth on my part, perhaps? (Go ahead and throw in ugly while you’re at it…)
I’m trying to figure out how we got 1.7 million new jobs in the database…look at Dec 24 and today’s number. Odd, huh? After the number, markets went into playing “Flatliners….”
Yes, times could be better, but there’s still a lot of work to be done in this old country of ours. And we won’t have the necessary dough for reinvestment in our own infrastructure if we keep subsidizing other countries. A reader called me out on this the other day, suggesting that it’s not really a subsidy.
Well, except it IS money that can’t be spent here – and it’s money that went to America’s trading partners at record levels. The “management question” is “How do we dial back spending without a recession?”
If you come up with a solid answer to that, give the White House a ring. Their ideas (tariffs) fly in the face of “free trade” but remember “free” did set up the nightmare we’re in. Namely, the export of all jobs to “least cost labor centers.” (It’s why China is interested in Africa and South America – because there are people in those regions who make even less than the Chinese. And they’d like to build a middle class someday…but you know all this, I suppose.
So back to the jobs report. Not horrific, not great, but given the weak ADP reading and the bump in yesterday’s Challenger numbers, can you really be surprised? Well, a bit, maybe…
The Biden Hangover
We seem to have the makings of a pretty good legal team, around here. Beginning with a hat-tip to reader Hank who spied this gem on ZeroHedge: Could A Bombshell Discovery Render All of Biden’s Presidential Actions ‘Null and Void’? .
But it gets even better as another reader (JR) continues with some solid “extensible thinking” on point:
“Did Biden’s staff use autopen executive orders to disburse money to NGO’s ? If so, then any judicial review of Trump’s actions against such disbursements based on separation of powers would be invalid, and insurrectional. Trump can reverse any prior executive orders with a stroke of his pen, including secret executive orders. And Trump can declassify them on the spot. My guess is that the real problem will be figuring out what documents were signed, and where the money went.
I don’t think that it will be possible to prosecute the autopen mutineers with the courts packed with Stalinist cronies.”
Still, it’s a dandy point of ponder and certainly keeps “Getting up in the morning to watch the latest serialized version of Life in near real-time, worthwhile.
Trump-Watch
We have no idea how American media survived without a president previous who was so intent on owning just about all of the news flow in-country, but here’s the morning short list:
- While it’s true (for now) that Trump puts new limits on Elon Musk’s authority amid backlash to DOGE cuts, we think it’s also true that Musk will likely seize on the auto-pen – Biden story and maybe claw-back some cuts. Trump doesn’t like reversals, though, and his idea of governance doesn’t involve running the steam roller backwards.
- The balancing budget hyperinflation through tariffs is a slow-motion treatment of the patient (America). But you know who isn’t patient? China vows retaliation against US for Trump-imposed tariffs. China wants a middle class sooner than later, and keeping up sales to the deep-pocketed American consumer works, despite the long-term risk that we will “stiff them” on all the American assets they own. Closely related will be the Consumer Debt report from the Fed this afternoon. We expect that American consumers – despite all the liberal hype – will keep on spending and might have even increased spending fearing higher prices with all this inflation talk. So keep an eye on the final hour of markets today when that report lands.
- A pre-emptive Israeli attack on Iran is still in the cards and Trump remains a staunch ally of Israel in all this. Latest evidence of his leanings are read in the “between the lines” tea leaves as US will back Israel action against Gaza if talks fail: Witkoff. Israel will want to knock over Iran in advance so it will be clear to more thoughtful Arab nations that peace or war is a pretty simple choice.
- And our notion that Trump is the consummate media narcissist who has to interject himselve in, well by-God everything seems born out in Trump Says MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace — and Rachel Maddow — Should Be ‘Forced To Resign’ After Wallace’s ‘Disgraceful’ Comments About Child Cancer Survivor. If people are dumb enough to watch hate-mongers, I don’t think Trump needs to make converts to clear thinking. Followers will come around, usually, only when they figure out they’re being duped… People who watch the likes of (above) are likely not on any Nobel short-lists, if you follow.
Still, we are reminded “for Whom the Bill tolls” in: ‘The Democratic Party is on the Verge of Collapse’: Bill O’Reilly. Sometimes the historians get things right but you just have to be patient with the herd. The truth keeps leaking: Emerald Robinson ?? on X: “You know that America’s elections are rigg*d because anyone who tries to audit the software code is arrested. Anyone who tries to inspect the machines is attacked. Anyone who tries to count ballots by hand is sued. Anyone who tries to discuss it is banned.” Yep, and?
Now into the Noise
To prep for this, you might want to have barf bags, ear plugs, and a head-shake at the ready…
BS as in Beijing here: China putting on the fake mantel of righteousness as Major powers should not bully the weak, China’s top diplomat says. So running almost daily ops against Taiwan and practicing for a blockage of the (still independent last time we looked) other China is…um…not bullying? Not enough evidence of Beijing bullshit? Try China boosts its defence spending by 7% after threatening US with ‘any war’ amid Trump’s tariff roll-out… so how do the two superpowers’ armed forces measure up? Well, might as well get their middle class used to getting bench over, too, right?
Sometimes in the news flow, we catch something that reveals when an Emperor has no threads on. An example as Unexploded WWII bomb in Paris halts Eurostar travel to London and trains to northern France. Now, what we find interesting is that Europe is all full of blank checks and bluster in support of Ukraine AND talking about how the world’s problems will be forthcoming from confrontation with Russia. But, um, notice what one piece of ordinance from 80-years ago did. Is Europe, you know, really ready for the Big Boy pants? Spooked by Trump and Putin, Europe rushes to rearm. Yeah, have fun with that.
Bitcoin took a bounce off the $85,000 level this week. As? Bitcoin prices fall after Donald Trump’s executive order for strategic bitcoin reserve disappoints market. We used to have a saying in sales “The easy guy to “sell” was always a salesman.” And so, it must be with Trump and the crypto con. Most grownup economists (who eschew wallets and form 1040 check boxes) can see the bubble with nothing inside from miles away. But – and in a sense BTC is a riff off Trading Stamps in the Great Depression, maybe if you can plaster a hard drive full of crypto you could trade it all in for a toaster some day… That’s where we see the Rhyme of 1929 leading. Just not YET though: Says g3:
“By 1929, trading stamps were well-established but not yet at their peak popularity, which would come later in the 1950s and 1960s. During the 1920s, companies like S&H were active, and stamps were offered by various retailers, including grocery stores and gas stations. However, their use was somewhat overshadowed by the economic prosperity of the Roaring Twenties, when consumers had more disposable income and credit was increasingly available. Merchants used trading stamps as a competitive edge, but they were just one of many promotional strategies at the time.”
Extensible thinkers are always looking for the likely migration pathing into Future.
Inquiring minds want to know: How does someone become a multi-multi-multi millionaire while “serving the people?” Elon Musk on X: “Where did Senator Karen get $67 million?” Maybe if Congress didn’t have their own retirement system (Put ’em in Social Security with the rest of us) and if they didn’t have exemptions from insider trading rules, and….and….
Still own a Tesla? Authorities arrest Oregon trans extremist accused of firebombing, shooting up Tesla dealership in Salem. Must be terrible to be a dem and believe the climate narrative these days and then have the new center of the party go “direct action” like this…. We’d say Life’s a bitch, but in order not to offend, we’re transitioning to Life’s a bastard... (Too early for rehab?)
And perhaps to wrap the week, a note on how the “butterfly has fluttered by”? Butterfly populations declining rapidly in U.S. with 22% disappearing in 2 decades, study finds.
Around the Ranch: Tractor Secrets
I was crashing and thrashing out on the western 12 (acres) Thursday. Down by the headwaters of what could become Lake George, at some point. Neighbor is thinking about letting me buy a gully which is an acre in size and which turns into more gully on my side (which is down hill a ways).
But it was muddy, and I got the tractor stuck. I’m reminded to “learn you” how to un-stuck a tractor in deep mud.
The answer is simple: Extend the loader bucket about 2-3 feet forward and then lower it into the ground. Push it well down in there. Now, while gently applying power to all four wheels (left heel engaged the differential lock on the rear tires), you roll the bucket down. Done right (and patiently) you can get a tractor out of about damn near anything. Only took about 5-minutes.
Of course now, having thrown mud all over, I have to pressure-wash the tractor today. Neatnik? Nope. There’s a cutoff switch that turns off the hydrostatic transmission now when I go forward or back. Mud, induced problem, more than likely.
Secretly, we have been looking at cash stacking up and I am thinking about a new tractor. This one is more than 20-years old and I have beaten the living snot out of it. Paid $15,000 for it new (with some implements and delivery) back in 2004. But a little bigger bucket with a couple of more horses (30-35 would be nicer) is tempting. Current one is only 24 horses – and that’s only a theory.
On the other hand, at 76, do I really have much use for a new tractor?
Can I get back to you next week? Dementia could make this kind of decision-making a lot easier, you know!
Off to work with Elaine today on putting in a drip irrigation system in the lean-to greenhouse. Don’t mind most “farmerly chores” but the repetitive stuff gets boring. And the whole point of ADHD is never doing the same thing twice, if you can avoid it. Why, I have ADHD so bad that if I even begin to think I might have to do something a second time, I’ll balk at doing it in the first place!
Where’s my recliner?
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
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