Been up since the wee hours, knee deep in some fascinating research that seems to be in the Ure genes.
You know, of course, about Dr. Andrew N. Ure who back in the early to middle 1800s was trying to “reanimate the dead” and how he may have been an influence on Mary Shelly’s novel Frankenstein, right?
Well, for whatever reason, I’m drawn to that line of inquiry and a great paper on how Hidden Clock of the Investor’s Mind will land on Peoplenomics. But even beyond that, a whole new framework is arising from my second book on AI (Co-Telligence) slotted somewhere between “damn interesting” and “breakthrough.” We’ll have to see where it leads. Sometimes, a writer writes with no idea how the book ends, until is just does.
“How’s this Economics?”
Ah – you saw the article last month “Two Fed officials don’t see major upheaval from artificial intelligence | Reuters“? Change is still alive and well, even as the foundations of America are shaking.
In part, due to the Trump war in the Middle East: Iran war is making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates – CBS News.
In advance, the early futures today were down a bit. Back up now, though and BTC was kissing $76,000 overnight so rally on today. Perhaps in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Buy the rumor, anyone?
Tomorrow afternoon the Fed rate decision is due. Gamblers watching the CME Fed Rate tool see a virtual lock on no change. But a surprise hike? That could blow down the market in no time.
Trumptonics
What is his core position, people are wondering. Trump draws backlash for comment on Iran war: ‘Maybe we shouldn’t even be there’.
Here’s the disconnect in the headlines: People remember Greenland (and the European reaction). He may have been emboldened by Venezuela, but now we’re seeing Trump says he’ll have the ‘honor’ of ‘taking’ Cuba: ‘I can do anything’ – The Washington Post.
We’re reminded of the old Western story, where the cowboy-hero “rode off in all directions at once.” Might work in a book, but in the Oval? Maybe not so much.]
We think the several wars in the Middle East (like Hundreds feared dead in strike on Kabul hospital) are at risk of converging into one big fugly. And my consigliere notices the weather window and favorable tides are opening now through mid-April for China to invade Taiwan.
Where (collectively) the wars are reducing LNG stocks which is the 12-day Achilles Heel of the AI stock bubble. (Other than that Mrs. Lincoln?)
Sitting on Your Wallet
Be braced for one of three outcomes:
- Energy prices rise, driving up farm costs, which will push food prices higher.
- OR, the spreading drought continues and that will hurt supplies, driving prices up.
- Or, BOTH.
A few storm clouds (but not raining yet): As Iran war continues, Oklahoma farmers struggle with fertilizer prices.
But the real problem – since a lot of “climate science predictions” are blowing up, is in trying to find a new paradigm. One where “one size will fit all.” Forbes waltzed around it recently in When Drought Meets Inequality: Why Investors Can’t Ignore The Collision Of Climate And Social Risk. But that’s like a retread trying to fit a casing of old public policy.
Commanding the Future
As a troupe of apes, all depending on no nuclear flashes, power on, and at least adequate food and water, here’s the outlook:
1) The fertilizer squeeze is the sleeper inflation story.
Most people are watching crude. Fewer are watching the fact that the Iran/Hormuz disruption is also hitting fertilizer flows just as spring planting ramps. Reuters reports dealers could be 25%–35% short of normal spring fertilizer supplies, while Barron’s notes roughly one-third of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer normally moves through that region and U.S. urea prices have already jumped sharply. That matters because this is how an energy war turns into a food-price problem with a delay: first fuel, then inputs, then planting choices, then yields, then grocery bills.
2) The real Hormuz signal is not just “oil over $100” — it’s that even escorts may not normalize traffic.
A lot of the coverage is still treating this as a military-protection problem. But the IMO chief said naval escorts cannot guarantee safe passage and are not a sustainable answer, while Reuters also reported Gulf oil exports are down at least 60% with floating storage ballooning. That is a more important signal than the daily crude quote because it says the disruption may be structural and sticky, not just a headline shock. For markets, that means longer-lived inflation pressure, shipping dislocation, and higher odds that supply chains seize in odd places beyond oil.
3) The central-bank story is shifting from “cut or hike?” to “how do they sound without breaking things?”
The underreported piece here is the Bank for International Settlements warning against a knee-jerk reaction to the energy spike, paired with Reuters’ point that central banks can still tighten financial conditions by talking tougher or nudging projected paths without actually hiking right away. That matters because it raises the odds of a higher-for-longer posture by communication, which can still pressure risk assets, mortgages, and credit even if policymakers sit on their hands this week. In other words: markets may not get relief just because rates stay unchanged.
After a (low probability but worth mentioning) “courtesy rally” post Fed tomorrow, all bets are off. China wants Taiwan, Trump wants everything, and I’ll just settle for breakfast.
OK, and a Reuben with fries and a pot of gold while the world burns down, if you insist.
Long ago, Bushmill’s and Bayley’s…but never until after work. Never when driving, etc. This is not medical advice…
Around the Ranch: The Real Cause of Death
I’ve come to suspect lately that a lot of people don’t die just because a pump quits, a valve sticks, or a lab number goes sideways. They die because the engine quits upstream. It’s like they run out of gas (or diesel).
No big plans. No unfinished work. No reason to get up with a little sand in their shoes and a little fight left in their jaw.
When people have goals, projects, arguments to win, gardens to plant, books to finish, grandkids to teach, antennas to tune, or some blessed thing or new invention still under construction, they carry more spark. Call it vitality, call it life-force, call it stubbornness with a mission. But I’ve seen it often enough to believe a hard rule may be hiding in plain sight:
No Goal? No Energy?
Not many doctors begin a clinic visit with the right question. “What are you working on?” Because the answer to that will tell them as much as a bevvy of tests.
There’s actual research circling around this idea. In older adults, a stronger sense of purpose in life has been associated with lower all-cause mortality, and not just in one small sample. Large cohort work in older U.S. adults found that lower life purpose tracked with higher mortality risk, while other studies linked purpose with better odds of maintaining walking speed and grip strength — which is a fancy way of saying purpose — seems tied not only to mood, but to staying physically capable enough to remain in the game. Reviews of older adults likewise define purpose partly in terms of life goals and determination to pursue them.
You can begin self-scoring of your personal vitality by borrowing concepts from Subjective Vitality Scales (SVS) – selfdeterminationtheory.org.
My suspicion — and this gets close to my Charged Body Theory — is that a human being is not “just a brain in a skull.” The whole person behaves more like a layered power system. When the layers line up — body, emotion, mind, and meaning — energy seems to flow better. Psychology has a name for one piece of this: subjective vitality, meaning the felt sense of being alive, alert, and having energy available to the self. Researchers measure it with self-report scales, but they also find that plain old self-reported energy tracks with real-world function, including fitness, gait speed, exercise behavior, and, in longitudinal work, risks of mobility disability and mortality. The World Health Organization’s more recent healthy-aging framework also treats vitality as part of the body’s underlying reserve, though the exact definition is still being refined.
Was there some latter day gold to be mined from the Rife machine? Is there no reliable way to assess life force energy? And we’re supposedly advanced?
My working theory is simple enough for shop use: the human power system runs best when all four layers align. The body needs fuel and motion. The emotions need attachment and hope. The mind needs challenge. And the deeper self down in your DNA needs a reason. Break that alignment (flame-out) and the lights begin to dim.
Keep it lined up and you don’t just feel better — you may live longer. Which is why one of the best longevity hacks may not be in a pill bottle at all. It may be a project list. Something unfinished. Something worth reaching for tomorrow morning. Goals not just for tomorrow. How about a 120-year plan?
The Investor’s Timebase
One of the most useful ever Peoplenomics reports is coming tomorrow. A great paper, ‘Hidden Clocks of the Investor Mind,’ will land on Peoplenomics. It grew out of my recent (and ongoing) work on the extensibility of my Four-Track Theory of Memory and Cognition. All about timing.
Research-creep at its finest. What began as a look at investor decision-making has turned into a broader framework on human timing itself — the internal “clocks” that shape judgment, emotion, memory, and perhaps even consciousness. The implications run well beyond markets.
It may be one of the most ambitious synthesis models I’ve stumbled into in years — and if even part of it holds up, it could reframe a lot more than investing. The framework may open new research into the neurobiology of PTSD, trauma, and even anti-aging.
Put simply, the innovation may be this:
You are shifting consciousness inquiry from “where is awareness?” to “how is timing aligned across the media that make awareness readable?”
And the caution is just as important:
A model that explains everything too quickly will be trusted less than a model that explains one new thing cleanly.
So, back to the lab now – I have a new device to build… Even more edgy than our red light therapy work back in 2016.
Write when you get rich,
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