With the gaveling in for the (likely no change) FOMC rate meeting, we see the markets are running red again today. So the “Lunch Money Trading account is “piling up cheeseburgers” pretty well.
The Big Picture view in our ChartPack (which is one of the bennies of $40-bucks a year on Peoplenomics.com) is that three things are worth watching closely for the balance of the week.
First there’s the question about whether we have put in a significant bottom and could head to new all-time highs from here? I don’t think so, but this ain’t financial advice.
The second problem is this: Has the Tech Decline (and subsequent rally) now run its course? Three green candles bottom right of this chart should give pause:
And the third problem (not counting Israel-Iran, Pak-India, Rus-Ukr, dropping dollar value, still-climbing debt, fears of pandemic-II, and useless social media, tariffs, and pending geophysical events) is that we have penetrated a key support line (on futures lower today) which if it holds, spells “unpleasantness” at a minimum.
Don’t mind us – we’re just here for the cheeseburgers.
To see where we are (relative to 1929) see Monday’s column here. Second chart down…
New Trade Figures Land
Remember, this is backward-looking…people were “tariff stocking” like mad…
Bank Reserve Settlement Day tomorrow. And there’s the Fed rate decision and the Consumer Debt report from the Fed right after….we’re gambling (at least) one of them will not go well…
Travel Roulette is Back
Got us an interesting “philosophical problem” as Widespread delays at US airport caused by air traffic controllers taking leave for trauma. Trauma??? Because, sure, everyone has a “right to job action” BUT during “normal” times (remember ’em?) Unions for Government workers argued that “government was always there” and reliable – hence wage parity was warranted. Now, above parity, with in many cases benefits far beyond the private sector – and their own, fire-walled retirement system – we just gotta ask whether this is government “worker rights” OR just how government rises up against We the People who pay the taxes and get lied to seems like more frequently? “sumpthin ain’t right…”
Doom-Scrolling Wars
Oh, poor little Britain. After backing the (now) unelected government of Ukraine to the hilt, Britain braces for direct attack, revives secret war plans. All while Ukraine continues to goad Russia with Ukrainian drone attacks close Moscow airports. Leading to the reaction: Putin says he hopes Russia will not need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Putin’s been pretty cool on the FAFO talk for a while, but with the Trump admin backing out of supporting (the runaway bureaucracy that is modern Europe and its) NATO…who knows? Our subject matter expert, citing Martin Armstrong’s work offers key insight:
“If USA departs NATO, we avoid involvement in disastrous EU war with Russia (and China). If not, as Armstrong put it, “we are a legitimate target” (for Russian nukes.) His computer believes Pakistan and India “blows up” in 2025, which could well be, given current tensions. EU-Russo war leaves 1 billion dead, EU loses big. Very spot on with Nostradamus war quatrains. “
On which, I’ll re-remind you (if you haven’t) to read G.A. Stewart’s “Ghost of Josiah” article. When the world’s leading Nostradamus expert takes time to write, might be worth your time to keep up.
Stuff’n Things
Um…let’s start with Stuffed: Rite Aid Files For Bankruptcy Again, Plans To Close Or Sell Remaining Stores
Also in the “too many Chiefs” category: US Defense Secretary Hegseth orders 20% cut in senior ranks of military.
Gaza is about to get stuffed more/again: Israel will seize Gaza under a new plan, officials say. But if you hear criticism, here’s the “insulator” in this: Israel announces airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Tough balances all around…Larger war to follow when someone gets it wrong…
Wait! Is this “Karping at shareholders?” Takeaways from Palantir CEO Alex Karp’s shareholder letter
Justice is not Blind. And in Minnesota it’s almost racist sounds like: Prosecutor Who Let Tesla Vandal Off Easy Now Under DOJ Probe For Race-Based Policy. “Skin-color” consideration in a criminal case? Tisk-tisk. ((We must be the only ones strongly in favor of Equal Protection, for all. Regardless of capitalization and specialty claims…))
ATR: Your Toughest Decision of the Day?
What do you put money into today in order to have the highest chance of living to 2050?
The general news flow begins to suggest a “gathering of clouds” that could – in the next year, or four, turn this period into a “last train out for Preppers” window.
We put it to the A.I. stack:
“For a survival-oriented person aiming to maximize survival chances to 2050, investments should prioritize self-sufficiency, adaptability, and resilience. Based on long-term trends, resource scarcity, and potential societal disruptions, here’s a prioritized list:
-
- Personal Health:
- Physical and mental fitness ensures adaptability to crises (disease, stress, physical demands).
- Invest in skills (first aid, nutrition), fitness, and mental resilience training.
- Highest priority: health underpins all survival scenarios.
- Stored Food:
- Non-perishable, nutrient-dense food (5-10 year shelf life) mitigates supply chain disruptions.
- Focus on bulk staples (rice, beans, freeze-dried meals) and water purification systems.
- Critical for short-to-medium-term crises; less impactful for long-term stability.
- Real Estate:
- Land in stable, rural areas with water access and arable soil supports self-sufficiency.
- Prioritize off-grid capabilities (solar, well water) to reduce reliance on infrastructure.
- Long-term value; balances inflation and provides a survival base.
- Ammo:
- Firearms and ammunition ensure self-defense and hunting in unstable scenarios.
- Invest in common calibers (9mm, .22LR) for tradeability and availability.
- Useful in high-chaos environments but less relevant in stable societies.
- Gold:
- Physical gold (coins, bars) retains value during economic collapse or currency devaluation.
- Hedge against inflation; universally recognized in trade.
- Lower priority due to limited utility in daily survival needs.
- Bitcoin:
- Decentralized, portable wealth; useful in tech-enabled environments or capital flight.
- High volatility and reliance on digital infrastructure limit reliability.
- Speculative; only invest what you can lose.
- Stocks:
- Diversified equities (agriculture, energy, defense) offer long-term growth in stable economies.
- Vulnerable to market crashes and less liquid in crises.
- Low survival priority; better for wealth preservation than immediate needs.
- Bonds:
- Safe in stable economies but low returns and vulnerable to inflation or default.
- Minimal survival utility; cash flow not guaranteed in collapse scenarios.
- Least relevant for survival.
- Something Else:
- Skills Training: Wilderness survival, farming, mechanical repair, or bartering skills.
- Community Networks: Invest in relationships for mutual aid and resource sharing.
- Renewable Energy: Solar panels, batteries for energy independence.
- These intangibles often outweigh purely financial investments.
- Personal Health:
Rationale: Health and food ensure immediate survival; real estate and skills provide long-term self-reliance. Ammo and gold hedge against chaos, while bitcoin, stocks, and bonds are less reliable in extreme scenarios. Prioritize based on your environment and risk tolerance.
Self Reporting:
We try to work on these categories a little bit, every week. Here lately?
- George is on keto, Elaine’s working out more. Three serious anti-aging protocols are in place…doing very well…all dental work current.
- 25-more pounds of organic black beans landed yesterday – 25 pounds of rice due this week and 800 adult daily vitamins with extra zinc.
- We will be adding another 300 gallons of water storage to our pressurized backup system, rewiring the well looms, too. Goal is 1,000 gallons of pressurized (switchable) back-up water. 200-days for the two of us, 133-days when G2 lands…
- Guns and ammo? (no comment, except the gun range is freshly mowed…and more bear spray landed)
- Precious metals (ditto beyond FAFO)
- Bitcoin? Not as long as there’s a checkbox on the 1040…
- Stocks for cheeseburgers and content to write about.
- Govt. bonds against bank runs or massive web downage.
- 4-new CDs on farming, gunsmithing, wilderness skills arrive this week – into the survival can with two laptops in a grounded metal garbage can…
- We’re at 40 solar panels – may upgrade a rack to 400-Watt bifacial…adding 2 kW additional source.
- Keep totally solid with great neighbors…
Seeing a work plan here? Toss in gloves, bleach and UV to “treat mail and deliverables” in pandemic II and our odds of long-term survival are about as good and ticker-timers allow…
Which is to say that even within the General Plan above, things like BTC fall down as very low priorities.
The urgency of each investment for a survival-oriented person aiming to maximize survival chances to 2050 depends on current global trends, potential risks (economic instability, climate shifts, geopolitical tensions), and the likelihood of disruptions. Below is the urgency level for each investment, assuming a 25-year horizon with moderate but increasing risks:
- Personal Health:
- High Urgency: Immediate and ongoing investment required. Health is foundational for surviving any crisis (disease, physical demands, mental stress). Start now: fitness, skills (first aid), and mental resilience training.
- Stored Food:
- High Urgency: Critical for short-term disruptions (supply chain failures, natural disasters). Stockpile 6-12 months of non-perishable food and water purification now; rotate stock to maintain freshness.
- Real Estate:
- Moderate to High Urgency: Secure land with water and arable soil within 1-5 years. Rural, off-grid properties are increasingly valuable as urban risks grow. Act sooner if financial collapse or climate migration accelerates.
- Ammo:
- Moderate Urgency: Relevant for self-defense and hunting in chaotic scenarios. Stock common calibers within 1-3 years, as regulations may tighten and shortages could emerge during crises.
- Gold:
- Moderate Urgency: Acquire physical gold within 2-5 years as a hedge against currency devaluation. Urgency increases if inflation spikes or fiat currencies weaken significantly.
- Bitcoin:
- Low to Moderate Urgency: Speculative and tech-dependent. Invest small amounts now if comfortable with risk, but urgency rises only if digital economies dominate or capital controls tighten.
- Stocks:
- Low Urgency: Long-term wealth preservation, not survival-critical. Invest in resilient sectors (agriculture, energy) over 5-10 years, but urgency remains low due to market volatility in crises.
- Bonds:
- Low Urgency: Minimal survival value. Only consider for diversified wealth preservation in stable economies, with no immediate action needed.
- Something Else (Skills, Community, Renewable Energy):
- High Urgency: Start skill-building (survival, farming) and community networking immediately. Renewable energy (solar, batteries) should be installed within 1-5 years for energy independence.
Yeah, it may sound silly to sit on the sidelines with BTC today at $93,917 at press time. (Will Jerome Powell’s FOMC Speech Trigger Bitcoin’s Next Move?)
People tend to forget the big, long-term role of History. BTC has only been around since January 2009. Living out of the rain and having a garden has been around how long, in comparison?
For every personal situation, there’s a way to optimize. Take Egor the Sailor. He’s on a Big Lake. Unlimited gardening potential and liquid storage is not even worth discussing, save a handful of solar stills. Here? Rainwater catchment, filtration, and storage is a different deal. Our “one emphasis thing” has been power and communications with shop and recovery tools in second place.
In a state like Ohio, Food production and storage would be the logical emphasis. Coastal dwellers might focus on sailboats for harvesting the sea… Where there’s a will? A way forward can usually be found.
When you start with Water, you’ll see why the Southwest holds so little interest for us, except maybe downtown north along the river in Sedona.
My pal – the Major – and his PhD NP bride – are planning a move to Colorado Springs. Before they shell out the long green for new digs, we will be having the “location assessment” discussion, I assure you. What his “best optimization” will be could be interesting. More as it comes along.
Write when you get rich, (but define your terms carefully.)
George@Ure.net
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