Opening line of our Peoplenomics.com ChartPack Saturday summed it all up:
“We think there’s a good chance that the market will continue to sell off next week and a knockdown could show up as early as Monday.”
Well, here we is, and here it goes: With the NASDAQ preopen down more than 900 points.
As we should explain, under “normal” Elliott wave views, the market surpassed – and therefore a case existed – to move well up from here. However, the most important of markets – and the one with the highest Ebbinghaus Correlation is the NASDAQ and that finally looks to be “giving up the ghost” in the early slog. About damn time, too.. My long expiration put operations could stand the bump.
If you haven’t followed our Ebbinghaus work, it’s simple. You only need to understand that the “human forgetfulness factor” is likely a major (but non-news) driver of market prices.
The core application, which follows, is turning a stock average into a (SolidWorks-like) model, by using multiple moving averages to “imply the surface.” Once you get this far in your thinking, you can spot areas where there’s an irregular (too large) gap between different moving averages and market actual pricing. In fact, there’s a lot more too it, but we’ll save that for the Peoplenomics side.
Notwithstanding, however, we “called the gap” in this view –
This is not to say the “end of the world is near” but we can make out a viable (modified) Elliott count that I’m sure Bob Prechter’s readers will be hearing a lot more about. What I’d expect him to offer (I’m wrong all the time, so no promises) is that we have a developing case for the left third of the chart to constitute a Macro 5 completion. Then a we saw (in the second third of the chart around the middle) a regular five wave decline which lasted to the right quarter of the chart.
In macro terms, a Big-ass Wave 1 down.
Then the Trump Rally – which could constitute the Wave 2 Up. Which is not a “regular looking” wave, but there are many factors (commoditization of stocks, influence of ETF blocks, crypto influences, and more) that may have finished the transition from “old Elliott” rules to a “new FOM (flavor of the month) to where Equties are now acting like Commodity markets, where such aberrations in Wave magnitudes occur with some frequency.
Now, as long at the market rallies (without closing at new lows) then there’s a case for another run slightly higher than the recent highs. BUT, the “grim reaper” in all this is a move powerfully down =- and under the 85-Day moving average, would set up a “Women and children to the lifeboats” this spring. Because it would be a second 85-DMA fail and the huge, gaping downsize looms for the Spring. Could be a grim one, especially because at the Fed meeting this week, we not only see no rate drop – which has been the jet fuel for Delirious Class. We see a strong case that the Fed might actually raise rates.
We trust Fed boss Jerome Powell has already dusted off his resume because the Trump HR folks would not be happy with Powell doing the “responsible thing.” After (as we told you at the time) the Fed lowered rates, when they shouldn’t have, in order to drive the Biden-Harris economic fairytale.
Now, we’re at the end of that book. And we see Trump’s major moves (moving Keystone ahead, just to name one) as impacting the democrats money machine, which is aided by an Omaha Sage who makes bundles off rail-hauling oil.
It’s complicated (makes my head hurt and requires many words to lay the whole shitterree out). So it’s just a lot easier for an old man (I’ll be 76 next month) to just virtualize market topology, spot gaps, and buy puts. Leaves more time to wear my Radio Detective hat. And yes, the SR-400 transceiver is purring along now, save for a weak vacuum tube called a 12DK6 which seems to have outperformed Cryptos in price appreciation, lol. Can I adapt a 12BZ6? What other sharp-to remote cut-off Pentode tubes would….
Um, wait! Did I just lose focus?
Anyway, mark today as the possible end of the AI bubble: “Dow futures tumble 300 points, Nasdaq futures lose 4% as Nvidia leads AI stock decline…” Whatever.
CFNAI
Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator:
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.15 in December from –0.01 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from November, and two categories made positive contributions in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.13 in December from –0.26 in November.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.15 in December from –0.28 in November. Forty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in December, while 41 made negative contributions. Fifty-four indicators improved from November to December, while 30 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 17 made negative contributions.”
(Negativbe contributions is our favorite economic bullshit word.)
Tomorrow the Fed meeting begins. Rate decision Wednesday. Market is setting up for a “Sell the rumor” today. I would expect some bullish stooge to be along late tomorrow before the close, and then the market to collapse when the Fed doesn’t give out free fentanyl on rates. Look for smoking foils all over the Street.
[Angry George – Reader Sidebar [AG-RS]: Acuity is totally f**king MIA. You can tell complexity is beginning to strangle humans when the writing tools corrected my spelling of fentanyl three sentences back. I was prompted to use “Tall Man Lettering.” OK, I’ll bite: WTF is “tall man lettering?” Here’s how AI sees it: “Tall man lettering (TML) is a typographic technique that uses capitalization to differentiate between similar-looking drug names. It’s also known as mixed-case lettering…” Well, NO. Just frigging NO. When used in the “generic” Chineseum smuggled in from Drugico, no caps! Geez…mental midgetism is contagious. Apparently to communicate with children (anyone under fiddy) capitalization is out and “tall man lettering” is in. Unless you’re gender-insecure, in which case refer to TWL (tall woman lettering) or TPL (tal person lettering) and now we get full circle back to Capitalization. FMTT what BS, huh? The “smell chequer” won’t even let me add the lower case to the dick-shunnary. Crazy…can we do shots this morning? No, not mRNA, I’m talking aquavit…]
No?
Hand Me the Foil, Light Up Some Headlines
How stupid is the world? Some examples of Obvious, Finally.
GAZA Real Estate Plunder. Yeah, we’ve been saying (a couple of years) that this whole GAZA thing is really about Israel getting it’s mitts on the offshore Gaza version of the Leviathan energy basin. God, I can’t count the number of people who said “Ure nuts!” But here we go: Ure’s right again (just like I was with no mRNA shots): Trump floats plan to ‘just clean out’ Gaza, expel Palestinians. Which will give effective control to Israel and thus keep the Gaza waterfront and (more valuable) access to offshore energy out of “unfriendly” hands… Oh, and need bigger bombs to “move things along?” Trump OK’s the US sale of 2,000 pound bombs to Israel, something Joe handlers halted. And did you see where Trump’s idea to send Gazans to Egypt and Jordan falls flat with Arab allies? Gee, aren’t we surprised? Let’s see: throw out Palestinians and get the waterfront, oil, and…um…
Strong policy statement that makes sense: Secretary Marco Rubio on X: “President Trump has made it clear that under his administration, America will no longer be lied to nor taken advantage of. It is the responsibility of each nation to take back their citizens who are illegally present in the United States in a serious and expeditious manner.” / X
Also on X a summary: Eric Matheny ?? on X: “Trump is governing like a man who has been shot, indicted, investigated, and impeached and has no fucks left to give. It’s glorious.” / X
Yes, he’s a Dick: Woke Senator Goes On MSNBC To Demand Government Employees Defy Trump On DEI.
Say, here’s a great way to get back at liberal media: Pharma Spends Billions On Drug Ads, Fears Trump Administration Will Try To Ban Them. Less ad money means more newsroom layoffs, Karma’s such a bitch, huh? Truth is drug ad costs get rolled into drug prices anyway, so it is like a cost reducer to limit drug marketing. Say, why not end it?
Liking JD more and more: JD Vance Roasts CBS Host for Moaning About Refusing Afghan Refugees: ‘I Don’t Really Care, Margaret’.
Good Visual Capitalist map here: Mapped: The Living Wage for a Family of Four, by State. Texas rolls at about half of Kalifornia. And that’s before fire bills.
At the Ranch: Next Book Plans
Hit me in the shower this morning: My next book (with a first chapter coming on Peoplenomics in a week, or so) hit me like a lightning bolt:
“People as Products.”
Why, it’s every bit as good as our “fonding axiom” around here (“Everything’s a Business Model…”)
As I was thinking about it, there’s no book like it. So I will be fixing that. Makes the art of personal development and self-improvement so much easier when you start from a solid base. Marketing concepts, engineering, sales…it will all be in there…
Meanwhile, a shout-out to DogTau for the dandy review of my book “Doctor Between Your Ears” – my longevity book:
“Ure has compiled an excellent array of information on longevity enhancement. And this will also help live that longer life with better vigor. Practical advice that has scientific foundation. This physician encourages you to buy this book.”
Another of my recent books, “The 100-Yer Toaster“ (which is about how obsolesence which collides with conservation and resource depletion) also just scored a 5-star review from someone…
The next book, People As Products, promises to be equally good. And – truth be known – a lot of fun to write. Because I serialized these, as weekly chapters on the Peoplenomics.com website. So odd-ball ways of looking at financial markets and some gen-u-ine intellectual stuff…worth $40-bucks a year, a few people think.
By the way, Peoplenomics (which began as the UrbanSurvival Inside Report) launched in 2001 with an annual subscription charge of $40-bucks. By inflation calculations we should be charging $75-bucks now. But, we don’t. Because this is not about getting “rich” – it’s more like my “community service” work in life…. Karmic work-release?
Ready to Plate! Good article which will be showing up on our table today: You’re 2 Ingredients Away From The Easiest Steak Marinade Of Your Life. OJ and soy sauce, huh? We’ll toss in some ginger, too…
Diet progress: Blood work next week, so down 4-pounds already. Trying not to be put up for drilling rights with my high cholesterol… genetic thing.
Radio Detective: Besides the SR-400 this weekend, my radio operating position is back to letting me pick from several ham radios. I know – Pappy used to ask when I was a kid (billions and billions of years ago…) “Why do you need more than ONE ham radio? You can only talk on one at a time….”
Yeah, that’s true, I suppose. But there’s a certain auditory liberation when you can play, oh, the TenTec Omni VII side-by-side against the Kenwood TS-590S, for example. Or the SR-400 and the Icom M710 marine SSB…
Under some (certain, specialized) conditions, each has their place in my “personal radio armory.”
I guess if I was doing just one it would be the Omni VII – which is way more pleasant-sounding than the Kenwood.. In fairness, the Kenwood has a smaller speaker, so it’s a lot more, um, muffled sounding. In fact (and this is a surprise) the SR-400 is also a lot more pleasing to the ear – both good ones have big speakers.
And so, in life, the “ears have come full-circle” first. See, when the Major and I were growing up (age 11 or 12) our adventures into electronics began by taking an “all-American five (tube)” radio and readjusting it so we could listen in on tugboats on Seattle’s Elliott Bay, back when marine radios were on the low HF band. Back then, the emergency frequency (still in use today) was 2182 KHz, not that far up the dial from radio stations at 1550 KHz. The golden screwdriver kids were born.
After we got the tugboats dialed in, next we took the speakers out of the radios and put them in flue tiles. Great non-resonant enclosures and it improved the sound a bit. The Major went off into building Heathkit audio gear for a while, as I focused on antennas.
But, here we both are – out toward the finish line in life – and we both still have extremely good taste in radio gear and the “sound” is what matters.
While I may give in to “selling off the collection” and revert to a single Icom 7300 (or 74-something) and a single linear amplifier when I “grow up” the key takeaway is speaker size and quality can do as much for radio “enjoyability” as all the DSP filters in the world.
It’s easier to use a high-end set of earphones (Sennheiser’s are good). But when comes to speakers, that’s like the early lessons of vinyl records and high-end audiophile. A cheap amp (I still keep a Lafayette LA-424 in working shape) but it’s the cartridge and needle (and great speakers) that gave all those albums of years-long-gone such phenomenal sound…
OK, enough rambling… keto cooking for breakfast…tell the pig and chicken’s I’m on the way…
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
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