Market’s still doesn’t know what the hell is coming. So, don’t feel like the Lone Ranger. It’s brutal in the forecasting business.
Big Picture continues to hint at a drop to the lower support line – as of the early futures today:
Visually, we can see how we are trying to work out whether to go down and test that lower long-term trend channel low or whether to zip back up to the 200-day moving average. Not that today will be a big deal – because the meaningful number picture is a week out. See, next week there’s Housing and we expect that between that, jobs, and prices, we’re likely to get some “clarification of intent.”
For now, craps game in the alley.
UNLESS you consider:
Why, it’s all enough to drive you to drink. Or, at least it used to be: PepsiCo lowers full-year earnings forecast on tariff costs and lower consumer spending. Lower spending on (we figure poisonous) HFCS products is bad, again, how? Yes, despite border crackdowns, Mexican Coca Cola (with real cane sugar) hasn’t been in short supply lately…
BOOM! Daily Data Dose
Uno: Durable goods just out:
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up three consecutive months, increased $26.6 billion or 9.2 percent to $315.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.9 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged.
Excluding defense, new orders increased 10.4 percent. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $26.5 billion or 27.0 percent to $124.6 billion.
Dos(e): Ditto the CFNAI:
- Production-related indicators contributed –0.09 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.25 in February.
The sales, orders, and inventories category’s contribution to the CFNAI was –0.03 in March, do - Production-related indicators contributed –0.09 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.25 in February.
- The sales, orders, and inventories category’s contribution to the CFNAI was –0.03 in March, down from +0.01 in February.
- Employment-related indicators contributed –0.01 to the CFNAI in March, up from –0.02 in February.
- The personal consumption and housing category’s contribution to the CFNAI was +0.11 in March, up from a neutral value in February.
Tres: Unemployment Filings
And the UI state detail view in the drill down:
Not the end of the world… but also not the dawn of the 1,000-year Peace.
While we wait, stock futures improved a bit on the reports.
War? More!
No propaganda needed to see what’s going on as Trump, Zelenskyy clash again and US warns it could abandon Ukraine talks. But the real BIG deal here is Trump says he’s reached agreement with Russia to end the war, hopes to reach the same with Zelenskyy. But don’t bet on peace – yet. Someone who is holding office illegally – having canceled elections he would have lost – won’t hear of it.
Analysis from the Miami Herald (which is usually pretty good): Russia Says Zelensky Wants to ‘Torpedo’ Ukraine Peace Talks.
The Trade War has a new sideshow going: EU hits Apple and Meta with 700 million euro fines.
America’s Stupid Media
Own the language, own the outcome was one of the real deep, core lessons out of being a big city news exec for well over a decade. Which gives me some keen insight into how linguistic imprecision is used to jack around Regular people.
Take the word “equity” versus the word “equality.”
“Equality means treating everyone the same, providing identical resources or opportunities regardless of individual circumstances. It assumes a level playing field where uniform treatment leads to fair outcomes.
Equity, in contrast, focuses on fairness by addressing individual needs and systemic disparities to achieve equal outcomes. It claims that people start from different places and may require tailored support to reach their potential.”
And so, Equity does not treat people Equally.
America is based on the Gold Standard: EQUALITY. We are totally with that.
Where we part ways with liberal shills is when they refuse to admit that equity is a highbrow form of Discrimination. Discrimination – in all forms is bad – very bad. But the near-word equity is a low-level mind-f**K which liberals play to the hilt. Realizing average people are IQ 100, or slightly lower.
BTW the national average IQ really is 98, based on recent data from standardized tests like the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) and the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC). Sobering, huh?
OK – now put your thinking cap on. Trump signs executive orders targeting colleges, plus schools’ equity efforts. Equality means parity, equity means privilege; just not for you.
Since equity is NOT Equality – which is inequality – the correct wording of the above headline would be “Trump signs executive orders targeting colleges, plus schools’ discrimination efforts.
You will NEVER see that in the co-opted mainstream media. But it’s a super obvious example of how widespread, low-level socialist-driven social programming is used to steer the future. A much deeper article on how the Future is “steered” is found here.
Here’s another example of “bad steering” at its finest: Natalie Winters on X: “Actual caption from @DailyMail: “They say dress for the job you want. Apparently freshly-minted White House Correspondent Natalie Winters wants to be a hostess at Hooters.” Unreal.
This as idiot democrats STILL don’t understand the Constitution only applies to Americans… 5 Democrats Visit Anti-Israel Activist Mahmoud Khalil in ICE Detention. Another hero charade for those unable to independently fire neurons. We are sooo screwed.
Lawfaring on Illegals
Speaking of which: Washington state Dems move illegal immigrant criminals to top of list for commutations, pardons to help them avoid ICE. Um, has anyone told WaDems that forgiving an illegal alien may only be in the Federal government’s court?
I nickels worth of AI drafted a brief which someone ought to send to Pam Bondi to defang the northwest Marxists. Wanna read some choice Ure-style legalese?
LEGAL BRIEF
UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
FOR THE [DISTRICT NAME]
Case No. [CASE NUMBER]
Plaintiff: United States of America
v.
Defendant: [State or State Official]
BRIEF IN SUPPORT OF PLAINTIFF’S MOTION FOR INJUNCTIVE RELIEF
I. INTRODUCTION
The United States seeks to enjoin the State of [State Name] from commuting the sentence of [Defendant Name], an illegal non-citizen convicted under state law, on the grounds that such action is preempted by federal immigration law and the Supremacy Clause of the United States Constitution. The federal government has exclusive authority over immigration matters, including the consequences of criminal convictions for non-citizens. State commutation of sentences for illegal non-citizens interferes with federal enforcement of immigration laws, specifically the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. § 1101 et seq., and undermines uniform national policy.
II. STATEMENT OF FACTS
-
-
[Defendant Name] is a non-citizen who entered the United States unlawfully on [date, if known], in violation of 8 U.S.C. § 1325.
-
On [date], [Defendant Name] was convicted in [State Name] of [state crime, e.g., felony assault], sentenced to [length of sentence].
-
On [date], the State of [State Name], through [Governor or relevant official], issued a commutation of [Defendant Name]’s sentence, reducing it to [new sentence or release].
-
The United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has initiated removal proceedings against [Defendant Name] pursuant to 8 U.S.C. § 1227(a)(2), as the conviction constitutes a deportable offense.
-
The state’s commutation disrupts federal authority to enforce immigration consequences, including mandatory detention and removal under 8 U.S.C. § 1226(c).
-
III. LEGAL STANDARD
The Supremacy Clause, U.S. Const. art. VI, cl. 2, establishes that federal law preempts conflicting state laws. Federal preemption may be express, implied through field preemption, or arise from conflict preemption when state action obstructs federal objectives. Arizona v. United States, 567 U.S. 387, 399 (2012). Courts grant injunctive relief when a plaintiff demonstrates: (1) likelihood of success on the merits; (2) irreparable harm; (3) balance of equities favoring the plaintiff; and (4) public interest supporting the injunction. Winter v. Natural Res. Def. Council, Inc., 555 U.S. 7, 20 (2008).
IV. ARGUMENT
A. The State’s Commutation is Preempted by Federal Immigration Law
-
-
Field Preemption: The federal government has exclusive authority over immigration, including the treatment of non-citizens with criminal convictions. Arizona v. United States, 567 U.S. at 401. The INA comprehensively regulates the immigration consequences of criminal activity, including deportability (8 U.S.C. § 1227) and mandatory detention (8 U.S.C. § 1226(c)). State actions that alter the consequences of convictions for illegal non-citizens, such as commutation, intrude on this exclusively federal domain. By commuting [Defendant Name]’s sentence, the state undermines the federal government’s ability to enforce removal, creating a direct conflict with the INA’s framework.
-
Conflict Preemption: The state’s action obstructs federal objectives under the INA. Commutation of [Defendant Name]’s sentence interferes with ICE’s ability to detain and remove the defendant as required by 8 U.S.C. § 1226(c) and § 1227(a)(2). In Hines v. Davidowitz, 312 U.S. 52, 67 (1941), the Supreme Court held that state laws are preempted when they “stand as an obstacle to the accomplishment and execution of the full purposes and objectives of Congress.” Here, the state’s commutation frustrates Congress’s intent to ensure uniform enforcement of immigration consequences for criminal convictions.
-
Supremacy Clause: The INA, as federal law, supersedes any state action that conflicts with its provisions. The state’s attempt to commute [Defendant Name]’s sentence, thereby potentially shielding them from federal immigration consequences, violates the Supremacy Clause. See Crosby v. Nat’l Foreign Trade Council, 530 U.S. 363, 372-73 (2000).
-
B. The United States Satisfies the Requirements for Injunctive Relief
-
-
Likelihood of Success on the Merits: As demonstrated, federal law preempts the state’s commutation under both field and conflict preemption doctrines. The INA’s comprehensive regulation of immigration consequences and the Supremacy Clause provide a clear basis for invalidating the state’s action.
-
Irreparable Harm: The state’s commutation undermines federal immigration enforcement, creating immediate and irreparable harm by potentially allowing [Defendant Name] to evade mandatory detention or removal. This disruption threatens national security and public safety, as Congress has determined that non-citizens convicted of certain crimes pose a significant risk. See Demore v. Kim, 538 U.S. 510, 518-19 (2003).
-
Balance of Equities: The federal government’s interest in maintaining exclusive control over immigration enforcement outweighs the state’s interest in exercising its commutation power in this context. The state retains broad authority to commute sentences for citizens and lawful residents, but its actions cannot impede federal immigration law.
-
Public Interest: Enjoining the state’s action serves the public interest by ensuring uniform application of federal immigration law and protecting national security. Allowing states to interfere with immigration enforcement would create a patchwork of inconsistent policies, contrary to Congress’s intent.
-
C. The State Lacks Authority to Interfere with Federal Immigration Enforcement
The state’s commutation power, while generally broad, cannot extend to actions that conflict with federal law. In Plyler v. Doe, 457 U.S. 202, 225 (1982), the Supreme Court recognized that states may not adopt Ascertainable by the Supreme Court in DeCanas v. Bica, 424 U.S. 351, 363 (1976), the Court emphasized that immigration is a federal matter, and states may not enact laws or policies that regulate immigration status or consequences. By commuting the sentence of an illegal non-citizen, the state effectively seeks to mitigate federal immigration consequences, an action reserved exclusively for federal authorities.
V. CONCLUSION
The State of [State Name]’s commutation of [Defendant Name]’s sentence is preempted by federal immigration law under the Supremacy Clause. The action intrudes on the federal government’s exclusive authority over immigration and obstructs the objectives of the INA. The United States respectfully requests that this Court issue an injunction to prevent the state from implementing the commutation and declare the action void as preempted by federal law.
Dated: April 24, 2025
Respectfully submitted,
[Attorney Name]
Assistant United States Attorney
[Address]
[Contact Information]
(Maybe no one in the Worker’s Paradise can read…can’t think is already established.)
Now, I believe (but I’m not a lawyer, mind you) that every time a state jails an illegal immigrant, the Federal DoJ should step in and claim preemption and deport. To do otherwise is tantamount to tax fraud on the part of the several states (lack of jurisdiction, remember?) and that should be illegal.
Then again, as long as states get away with this kind of thing, is it functionally illegal? Um, no…,and that’s why America has gone to shit. That void between the ears.
Oh, send a copy to? Pritzker orders Illinois to boycott El Salvador over Abrego Garcia’s detention. Have a nice day.
Still MORE STATE OVER-REACH: Supreme Court Case Could Spell The End For California’s EV Mandate. We explained on Peoplenomics 15 years ago that EVs screwed the ICE drivers because EVs didn’t pay fuel tax and still got to use thoset gas tax paid-for roads…remember that crock? Again, hybrids are the only thing that really make sense…
(We hope you realize that without juvenile polarization and division, America could lay off most of its politicians, 3/4’s of the lawyers and judges, and maybe 90 percent of bureaucrats, right? When is some State Legislature going to say “We have enough laws…let’s just go home and deal with the messes we have already made up...? In fact, the US Congress should take 3- years off (rerun present year) and go home, too..,.Too reasonable? Fortune to be made with www.gohomecongress.org I’d venture. Put me in for $20.)
Stupidfication, Redux
(The word is not in the dictionary, but it should be. It’s what America has done – lots of – since WW II.)
What could possibly go wrong? China confirms its plans to build a nuclear plant on the MOON to power the research station it’s ‘dreaming up’ with Russia.
Meanwhile, the Unthinking Kingdom has plans for as New Dark Age: UK Approves INSANE PLAN To BLOCK THE SUN, Bill Gates Proposed SAME Plan. God Save the Dark!
Around the Ranch: Dawn and Lawn
Jumping Jack Flash gets some gas, gas, gas. Lawn at dawn. And then I will be doing Ride, Captain Ride on the riding mower…. (Say, was that the rock at the top of Angel Island in the video?)
Filling fell out this week, so won’t be doing my usual Thursday video chat with the Board of Directors today. But, another riff on gas, gas, gas, maybe?
Write when I grow up you get rich,
George@ure.net
Read the full article here
