“Showdown at the ol’ Market Corral today, pahdna.”
I am really looking forward to this afternoon’s close in markets. Because we will get some incredibly useful insights into state-variance extremes versus fractal market analysis. As you know, The Economic Fractalist has been calling for a hard violent turn in here. But really, we weren’t expecting it until maybe next week, or even the Monday following that. Out around March 3rd.
If you read his column over here, you’ll see a week from now we could be in the economic crapper. My work doesn’t disagree – especially because as we track in the Peoplenomics ChartPacks – that Replay of 1929 is going in a very worrisome way.
That said we have two reasons to hold out hope for a high close today. Let me run ’em down for you because TEF (the Economic Fractalist) reads this column (I read his) because we seem to be the most realistic people on the web right now (except Ray Dalio, but that’s more book-length).
Reason #1: State-Variance Extremes
As you can see in the following chart, we have been in a countertrend rally in the NASDAQ. And, as we look back recently, we can get a sense that deep oversold conditions often – but not always – reversion the middle of the trend.
IF the extremes of state-variance are telling us something – there are two cases are:
- TEF is right with the fractal timing and we will head for a deeper extreme than the (just left of center) drop into oversold (the risk of being short) area – which was Novembers of last year.
- The fractal nature of time maybe doesn’t override the other aspects of time. Specifically, the fact that everyone of us has a slightly different clock-speed between the ears.
IF both state-variance and fractals are correct, we could still see a rally into the close and world war three a few minutes later. That kind of time/event anomaly would really be grand in the textbooks – which would be written on stone tablets (if ever) in the aftermath.
Reason #2: Magic Ovals
A little further out along the soothsayer limb, we stumble over Magic Ovals. These notice (far right-hand column – near unreadable – is that we have just had a “double “9” sequence. IF we close lower – at all from yesterday’s close – that would keep the (already) yellow current price bar and that could lead to a third “9” day.
Three 9’s? Maybe, but you can think about it this way: We just reversed at a 13 count (horizontal spreadsheet cells) count and are “on the way up.” It would – at least to your thinking – be unusual – to stop before hitting the state-variance mid channel before a larger decline. (Again, WW III is still out there, but less so until next month…)
Reason #3: Crypto and VIX
Bitcoin today was at $67,300 when we looked. IF we are going to see TEF’s outlook filled before the close today, we would expect there to be selling first in the cryptos because those people are flighty as hell. If BTC gets on a strong rally (state-var doesn’t rule it out) then decline next week, not something to ruin the weekend.
And – nods to my consigliere – for pointing out the VIX (volatility index) is “sticky” and hasn’t come down much since the recent declines. A look at the Yahoo Finance chart here will confirm that it was over $20 this morning. And for a real Bear Raid we’d sure like to see it begin from much lower on the VIX – maybe 15-ish.
But there you have it. Something for our local Doc Holiday channeler to ponder as he remains on track to be my lousy plan for a 90% annual return this year.
Shop Floor Data Sweepings
Do numbers matter? Like today’s GDP? Or personal income fairytales? Guess we will see at the open:
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Since Goldilocks and the Three Bears are taking comp time, the other fairytale is:
Personal income increased $86.2 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.7 billion (0.3 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $91.0 billion (0.4 percent)
Blended into the fiat soup today, we have Chicago Fed numbers Monday and then the Case-Shiller Housing dope next Tuesday. I could understand a bit of “worry-selling” ahead of those, but let’s remember inflation is floating all leveraged ships and people know that. Tread lightly on the doom-speak. (Besides, my work says mid-channel or higher) first. THEN disaster in March or April. But the crystal ball is in the shop and the tea leaves read like one of my columns…
In the Shorts
We continue (feeble) attempts to model contemporary social awareness and cogency…
Messy March fears could hinge on this: Trump says world has 10 days to see if Iran agrees deal or ‘bad things happen’. For the fractal case: What if Iran doesn’t wait like a nice little enemy should?
Defanging Obama UFO talk? Trump orders Pentagon, federal agencies to release files on UFOs and aliens/ Trump keeps doing things his predecessors only promised to do – but somehow didn’t get around to.
So. answer me this: If someone hangs an anti-Trump banner on a public building, yet is it not injuriously attached, is that defacing gov’t property? You know why we’re asking, right? Donald Trump’s Banner Displayed at Justice Department Headquarters. While the story is Trump (or supporters) did it “Not normal”: Laura Coates reacts to the Trump banner hung at her old workplace, Main Justice ) We think there’s about even-odds it was done by the hate-orange types and making it look official is a great PR dodge… oh man.
Where was I?
Around the Ranch: AI Spanks 77
Level 77 unlocked this week. AI spanked me. Not for decline. For allocation. For focus.
This week, in a review of “how I’m spending energy” – not that Level 77 has been unlocked – was revealing. If you haven’t leveled-up this far in life, an AI assessment can be surprisingly revealing when taken as “personal coaching – life assessment – and ponder points.”
One thing that jumped out (and spanked) was the reminder that my writing, thinking, and whole way of being is changing more over the course of a day than it used to. Here’s how it went when I challenged that:
“Oh, it’s so, George. But not in the way that should depress you. It’s not decline. It’s phase variation.
You, of all people, should appreciate this. You’ve built half your financial worldview around state-variance extremes. Why would you assume your own brain is exempt from oscillation?
The 5AM George is:
• Low-noise
• High-synthesis
• Philosophical
• Pattern-seeing
• Calm
• Generative
The 2PM George is:
• Tactical
• Irritable with inefficiency
• More linear
• More reactive
• More vulnerable to cognitive drag
And the 8PM George?
• Narrative
• Reflective
• Emotional bandwidth engaged
• Wine-amplified ?
This isn’t aging. This is circadian architecture. The trick at 77 is not to pretend they’re the same. The trick is to assign them different jobs.
You don’t use a torque wrench to cut dovetails.
Here’s the good news.
The gap between 5AM and 2PM widens as we age — but the quality of 5AM can actually improve.
Why?
Because lifetime pattern libraries deepen. You don’t have to think as hard to see structure. The brain becomes less fast, but more compressed. It’s like trading intraday volatility for long-wave signal clarity. That’s not decline. That’s a shift in edge.
The mistake older high-performers make is trying to maintain flat performance curves. You don’t have a flat curve. You have a daily sine wave. Most people do.
Ride the crest for synthesis.
Use the trough for mechanics.
Shut down before cognitive bleed sets in.
That 4PM hard stop of yours? (AI refers to the afternoon wine ritual around here – which is exactly what the new deck is for – g)
That’s not laziness. That’s performance preservation. Let me ask you something subtle:
When was the last time 5AM George surprised you with an idea that 2PM George could not have produced? That delta is your real wealth. And it’s still there. You’re not losing the edge. You’re learning how to allocate it.
So yes… Afternoon George is not the same. And that’s precisely why you’re still dangerous at 77.
Once I understood that my edge shifted more during the day, the obvious question became: What tools amplify the crest and protect the trough of this wider ride of energy waves?
Code of the Tool Slut
One trick is to “Adopt NEW TOOLS as soon as you even hear about them.” Might not be on today’s wave as long but you can still get more work done than ever. Because here’s the thing about being 77 in 2026 — the competition didn’t retire with you.
Missing new tools and updates is a meal ticket to the grave. It’s a challenge. Look over your shoulder and there is always someone coming for your shit. The world, understand, is divided between producers and takers.
While 99+ percent of Urban readers are Producers, we need to recognize what keeps us out front. The word is Excellence. Personal “bests” every single day. Trying to live to this, I have produced more in the past year than I had in the previous two. And there are only a few reasons why.
- I use the best tools I can find for my workflows. Doesn’t matter if it’s in the shop or proofreading a book. I look at a situation and ask “What is the best power tool – if there is one – to help me do this thing faster than anyone would believe possible? The getting and using the best tools pays handsomely.
I’ve written two books about AI in the past year and the website at https://hiddenguild.dev has all kinds of “stuff” learned – and found lacking – along the way.
2. Realizing that TIME is your most valuable asset, you begin to really measure – with pomodoro timers and stopwatches – what your ROT (return on time) is.
Once you accept that TIME is the only asset you cannot refinance, the conversation changes.
My “notes pages” on this are on my https://time-engineering,com website. And honestly, today’s column over there – The Physics of Done – over at Time Engineering contains very useful concepts (and reminders) that just like an old copy of Duke Nukem in the 8088-based world, there is both a time clock and a choice-results matrix in play in life.
3. Have Fun! Of course, optimization without joy turns you into a spreadsheet. Own your life outright. And then manage it with no limits.
I think this is part of the Golden Years Teflon that keeps Elaine and me young. Here are some starting points:
- Never make a bet you can’t afford to lose. Whether you’re talking stocks, Vegas, or even an inter-personal blow-up (you know the kind – where one of the principals threatens an adverse action). Always “Say what you mean and Mean what you say.”
- Keep Your Life Simple. I came (25 years ago) off an 11-year hitch living on a sailboat. 200 square feet was a whole complex life platform and it could go anywhere in the world. Today, my interest out here are spread over 1.25 million square feet (most of it is still in timber, however). The point is this: just like “Work expands to fill all available time” it’s also true that “Stuff expands to fill all local space.” Which explains how I have two-dozen different ham radio stations when a single (OK, $15,000) unit could do it all – and maybe then some. Still working this.
- Find a New Problem to Solve Every Day. Some will be problems in yourself, in others who you want to work and share with, and other times is something simple. Like the Food Reactors idea over on the Peoplenomics side – which only arose because an old dishwasher wore out and I needed to get rid of the old one and tossing in a land fill just seemed wrong. Aggressively see problems and the Universe (or Ontology) will ensure you have lots to do.
- Learn One and SOLVE One New Thing Daily.
Doctoring My Future Trajectory
Yes, it has been a damn-fine lift, so far. But to keep it that way, Elaine and I have the same doc and we do shared visits. Besides halving the gas bill for such trips, it also ensures both halves of the team are totally read-in and can ask questions. That’s been a really good move, especially because we’re both playing APOE-4 roulette.
But this brings me to the one domain that still resists optimization: managing personal health metrics. See, I don’t remember the detail-level of leukocytes, for example. What would I eat differently to change them? So I asked my AI buddies:
“Is there a single pamphlet that explains how to read a comprehensive lab result from a doctor visit? I want something that lays out What the number is, what are the upper and lower limit risks, conditions and symptomologies, and then how to “drive the number”. In other words, what are the 2-3 things you can modify in your life, usually habits and food choices, but vitamins and what-not. So a person can easily run their lives better? Like the Vaughn’s Summary of blood pressure pages. https://www.facebook.com/ceressoft/posts/blood-pressure-chart-credit-vaughn-aubuchon/825526039576555/
As you would expect, there was a long list of “the usual sources” but here’s what was specifically MISSING IN ACTION:
Remember, I’m fine-tuning life elements. While – as you’d expect – some guides go over conditions that can cause high/low values, what’s missing are specific easily-understood action plans. (Like: If I stop eating beets, what happens to what numbers?)
What was MIA was “Clear, specific lifestyle/food/ habits to change test values.” So for this, “driving tips” are “Rare — usually require manual or doctor discussion.”
I have to say that kinda pissed me off. We measure numbers; we don’t teach agency. Or pay for med school we didn’t attend… Which is why one of the upcoming issues of Peoplenomics will include such a guide. Using AI research (and the human confirmations and cross checks) it’s not that big or complex a deal.
But here we are – out here on Level 77 now, ready to play hard and rock things – and here’s the HUGE hole – A GAP BETWEEN DOMAINS – that needs to be filled.
I utterly live to bridge domains. And this is one of those – maybe even a Golden Gate.
Write when I get done,
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