Part of the market wants to jump in the crapper today (NASDAQ) and part is still playing pretend (DJIA). But the real wager going on comes down to “How right is Ray Dalio?”
Ray Dalio, who warned of 2008 market crash, fears ‘something worse’ than recession amid Trump tariffs.
Yet the happy-talk choir continues to sing: Elon Musk Reacts After Ray Dalio Warns Of US Decline.
For us, it all comes down to a short discussion paper on the Peoplenomics side of the house tomorrow. Where we ask – in sequence – of our AI stack: Is inflation a sustainable form of “synthetic growth” (and of course not, but how long could it roll?). And then, once that fails, isn’t there a business model for government in the growth of sequential crises?
Yeah Baby! It’s all such a Klaus Mini-Me kind of outcome, ain’t it?
In Old Man fashion, we are blowing most of it off as “transient bullshit that’s not worth the time.” Because breathing is still free, for as long as it lasts.
In terms of comparative wave counts (and why Dalio is likely to be right about the ultimate outcome, which is why he’s a billionaire and you and I aren’t) our back of the envelope says we are about here and looking to these old eyes like an approaching end of the Wave 2 rally will lead to the ugliest year since 1929. But, no hurry – it will be here when it gets here.
Two Views of Future
Two ways we can look at things. Elliott waves and counts along with trend channels can be seen like this using our Aggregated markets index:
The second chart is even more troubling because really smart guys (like Dalio) auto-think charts and graphics in their heads. Maybe he sees something like this?
Maybe this is all wrong, but the timing of the present crypto rage is so coincidental, I can’t stand it.
“Charles Ponzi began his scheme in 1920. He was operating in Boston at the time and claimed to be able to double investors’ money in 90 days by buying and selling international postal reply coupons. The scheme ultimately collapsed after just seven months, as explained by Wikipedia, but not before he collected over $8 million from about 30,000 investors.”
And so, boys and girls, it took about 9.5 years to get from Ponzi Launch to the Great Depression onset.
As an old man, therefore, when I remember that Bitcoin began in 2009, part of me wants to think “The Collapse window is already closed on the Ponzi replay idea!” OTOH, though, we did have a fugly pandemic come along. And then Wall Street bought in. And we begin wondering (sincer the 1918 Spanish Flu and Ponzi could be viewed as temporally reversed with the Covid mess and then BTC getting traction…
Maybe Dalio is looking at the 10-years from Spanish Flu to Market Top back then and wondering about how soon the blow-over will happen on this timing marker?
Re-Retirement
I am going to write shorter columns. And take a day off once in a while, unannounced.
I am going to write shorter columns. And take a day off once in a while, unannounced.
I am going to write shorter columns. And take a day off once in a while, unannounced.
…
Old Man Investments
Easy game to play with the kids over the upcoming holiday weekend: “If you could buy ANYTHING TODAY that you were certain would have higher value in 5, 10, or 15 YEARS, what would it be?”
- I don’t think prime rib dinners will get cheaper.
- I don’t think electricity will get cheaper.
- I don’t think water bills will go down.
- I think a good trade – like an HVAC tech in a hot climate, or a firefighter/medic in any Big City will still be in demand…
- I still don’t want to sleep outside in the rain, so a home owned outright makes sense…
That’s how you invest for the Future. The rest of the “question cards” (like “When will the number of gay people exceed the number of straight people?” And “Who will be MOST Special in 5-years?“) are there for those with no concept of how math and multiplication work.
Walk With Me
We got more stupid stories than Carter had little liver pills.
Where to begin is always the hard part. Let’s go with Curtain #2: Trump Admin Charges Democrat After ICE Scrum at Newark Detention Center. Good. Even lawmakers aren’t above the law, are they? Unless they are (fill in the blanks yourself…you shouldn’t need coaching.)
Another Lefty pity-party will be held because? US Supreme Court lets Trump end deportation protection for Venezuelans, So, lemme see if I got this right: Joe (who wasn’t really all there) Biden makes up a class of Special People and his successor can’t undo it? That’s what this is about: Unwinding a ball of twine the dems have been rolling for decades…
Still, leftists ruling from the bench continues unabated: Judge Rules DOGE, Trump Admin Gutting U.S. Institute of Peace ‘Unlawful’. I love it when judges make up laws to suit a guerrilla movement, dont’ you?
Life’s a Gas! A year ago gas was $3.59. Triple A says today it’s $3.177.
Jim the Bookseller? Comey was interrogated by the Secret Service after threatening Trump’s life. But Comey’s got books to sell — so he’s breaking his silence and blaming… his wife! Does this make him a “responsibility abuser?”
And did you see where Alan Dershowitz says news outlets could sue over lost ad revenues due to federally funded censorship? Like where our Google revenue dropped?
And the WHO is in tough financial straits: WHO on Brink of Collapse, Admits It May Never Recover After Major U.S. Funding Withdrawal. Gee, who (whom?) under color of law will tell us we HAVE to roll our sleeves up for the next pandemic killshot?
Around the Ranch: Real-ID in Comments Here?
I love the Comments section of this site better’n my own columns, most days. Readers like Ray, D’Lynn, LOOB, and BIC (Bob in Canada) and even Len down under make incredibly useful remarks and share tons of knowledge.
Over time, readers get a sense to “who they are.”
But, there are a few readers who use a different posting name every time they post and it makes it hard for regular readers who have to tie up headspace figuring out who made the comment.
SO… I am thinking about a policy where people can choose any moniker they want – but not more than 2 per customer. One of our readers (who offers a lot) does so under more names than you’ll find in a small town phone book.
Why?
We don’t have many “policies” around here, other than the ones I make up on the fly, but this one seems like we need it. Not to limit the comments from a few posters, but to allow people when scanning to know (from their previous posts) if they need to stop and consider the views offered.
Multiple names are a kind of “reader manipulation” and I think when you “mount the pulpit here” to preach a particular view, that it would be useful to others to know who’s making the point.
Let me know what you think of this idea…for now using any name you want, but realizing in our internal tracking it all comes back to your source IP address. We therefore know (with a great deal of specificity) who is the most schizophrenic amongst us…
(Oh, look! The “possibly non-inclusive language” flag went up from the word police plug-in! Tell me this ain’t progress?)
Write when you (or your pseudonym or preferred pronoun) gets rich… but only if they share the wealth… We’re all gonna have ankle callouses before this is over.
George@Ure.net
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