You’ll remember that in the 1980s, I was senior VP of a regional Caribbean jet airline? We had a saying back then – and worth remembering today – that “Crashes come in Two’s and Three’s.” (Mostly threes.)
That matters because of a tragic accident in the skies over D.C. early today: American air plane collides with helicopter near DC airport. And the outlook for survivors is dim. 18 Bodies Recovered From River Following Aircraft Crash Near Reagan National airport.
Of course, “science” will insist there’s nothing to accidents in 3’s:
“The idea that aircraft accidents “come in 3’s” is largely a psychological phenomenon, not based on actual statistical data; there’s no inherent reason why accidents should cluster in groups of three, and the perception of this pattern likely arises from the heightened media attention surrounding multiple accidents occurring within a short time frame, making them seem more frequent than they truly are. “
Still, after 75-years of watching the world, we have come to the conclusion that “randomness ain’t entirely random” and that – just like in Casinos – you will often get runs of a certain number or card.
We weren’t planning to travel anywhere in a plane this spring. And for now, that seems like a really good idea. Even if there’s nothing but randomness going on…
Bounce: GDP and Jobless Filings
As we expected, the Fed didn’t give the market more free lunch. Choosing (and we think wisely) to hold rates at present levels. There’s a lot coming in the way of financial change. The Fed needs to keep some powder dry.
Today, early futures were calling a bounce. But only back to about where things were ahead of the Fed decision based on early futures pricing.
If you want a worthy math problem to ponder: We were just talking about how 2’s and 3’s seem to show up in airline disasters, but we wonder if this same Misperception of randomness is also behind the Elliott waves of two or three impulsive or corrective legs to a market’s trading? You do the math, I’ll share the Nobel with you (my question, right?). And hopefully, one of us will make some Big Money with it…
GDP is out. This is a big deal because it let’s us consider the Velocity of Money at M2 – something we can dig deeper into Friday. ” It’s calculated by dividing the nominal GDP by the average M2 money stock in a quarter. ”
Here’s what’s new today:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the advance estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
M2 is useful because it’s a fundamental driver of the “value of money.” When the value of the money falls, the number of money-units (dollars needed) goes up. On the Fed’s money supply page (here, please make a note of it) despite all the hype and circumstance, the money supply was up – non adjusted – on a Dec. to Dec basis, 3.86672 percent. Some of that comes because of inflationary pressures (that huge mountain of National Debt, for example). But the economy also grew some as Slow Joe was about to go… so Velocity at M2 over time is a nice way of sorting out whose thumbs are on the scales of finance. (It’s not yours and mine, obviously…)
All this turns into jobs and jobless numbers. And I was really struck during the Chairman’s remarks after the Fed hold: He sees a labor market that is good (if you have a job) but one where finding the next one could be difficult. If you were planning to get yourself laid-off, might be harder getting back on a payroll somewhere.
As for how it felt “in the States”?
The next economic note is that Gold was trading over $2,800 today. Silver hit the $32 handle. Long-time readers will remember our “in price” was $273 for the yeller dog in 2001. And – if you happened to buy then, hang on, and live the “downsizing life” your back-up to Social Security could be sold-off without long-term capital gains tax provided you keep yourself poor on paper, under what, $94,000 a year? Which if you have zero debt. Of course, you’ve worked this all out on your own, right?
If not, BTC is trying to hold $105,000 today. But, like we’ve said from the get-go, government hates competition when comes to making up money. Will crypto be seized like gold and silver in the Depression?
Tariff Weekend?
Much gnashing and whining about: Trump’s on-and-off tariff threats may hurt capital spending goes one view. But on the other hand, Trump’s Successful Tariff Threat to Colombia Sets Stage for Mass Expulsions.
We could wake up in a much different world next week. The U.S. wants to stop fentanyl. Trump commerce nominee says Canada, Mexico can avoid tariffs, vows stronger China tech curbs.
Scrolling and Crawling
Say, he was a democrat, wasn’t he? Former Sen. Bob Menendez Sentenced to 11 Years in Prison.
RFKjr’s nomination may vote today. And he’s calling out the “takers” on the Hill: RFK Jr: Why are members of Congress doing the bidding of this Danish company instead of standing up for American farmers and children. We’ll see how “tell the Truth and leave shortly thereafter…” plays out. And did you read Disgraced Mike Pence, Funded by Big Pharma, Tries to Derail RFK’s Nomination? Gee, surprised?
At another Grill on the Hill -dems are back to their Trump-blocking ways: Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s pick to oversee US spy agencies, will face grilling at confirmation hearing.
Third Grill the charm for the obstructionist party? Sparks expected to fly at Kash Patel’s Senate confirmation hearing to lead FBI. Bring popcorn, IQ tests and look up major media company employment donors in the advanced search tools over at OpenSecrets.org….the reports are not complete, yet, but you’ll see a pattern develop…media and Harris….
Still, the Deep State stooges aren’t giving up: James O’Keefe on X: “We have a top DHS official ON TAPE revealing plans by DHS employees to defy Trump-appointed Kristi Noem’s orders. cc: @DHSgov, @KristiNoem – thoughts?” / X
But, for now, the rule of law is returning as 1000’s of ICE Agents Descend on CA ‘Super’ Sanctuary City to ‘Take’ 100,000 Illegal Aliens [WATCH]. Well, except in Chicago, maybe: Whistleblower: Multiple FBI Agents Called In Sick With ‘Blue Flu’ To Avoid Helping ICE Round-Up Criminal Illegals In Chicago. And you wonder why people leave Illinois?
And did you catch this on Al Jazeera? “Mexico cannot cope with a sudden influx of millions of people.” Um…we don’t seem to remember Mexico or SA/CA countries asking us… ‘We stopped that’: Trump administration revokes deportation protections for Venezuelans…
And a useful tech tip today: How to remove the Windows 11 news and weather widget | Tom’s Guide
At the Ranch: Early Spring, Mower Prep
Two decent-sized projects this weekend here. One of them involves changing out the winter oil and putting a fresh load in the riding mower. Checking the battery, making a few “test passes” and such. Because in the next week, temps are heading back over 75 out here – a bit early for the year – and we need to be ready to mash the lawn back into submission.
Also, with the hydroponics coming up with seedlings, time to do a rebuild of the swamp cooler for the attached greenhouse. I’ll try to remember to snap some pictures for ShopTalk Sunday when it comes up in the repair rotation. When running flat-out, you’re doing well to get a season out of a swamp cooler fan motor. New media pads due to land this weekend. Check Home Depot pricing – we’ve found them a reliable source for things.
One thing we’re planning for the “sunny sides” of the house this year will be putting up some “shade sails” to keep heat off the place. There’s a thing in the South, you don’t see up north much: People put “roof-overs” over mobile homes. Dramatically reduces cooling costs. Since most mobile homes are built “on the cheap side” the biggest bang for the buck is planting tall shade trees and putting in sun shading…
And another Deck Build is coming. My dad’s favorite part of construction was always framing. “Nothing like seeing “enclosed space” appear out of the vacuum…” I totally get that. But I like decks. Not too hard to build, they look good (with a decent railing) and they are great three seasons for sitting outside. Yep, 76th birthday may involve deck-building.
Write when you get rich (or find a new power tool I don’t already have),
George@Ure.net
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